IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/lsg/lsgwps/wp71.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Pattern scaled climate change scenarios: are these useful for adaptation?

Author

Listed:
  • Ana Lopez
  • Leonard A. Smith
  • Emma Suckling

Abstract

Pattern scaling methods are being widely applied to generate scenarios of climate change for quantification of their impacts on different systems. While generic limitations of this approach are welldocumented, the implications of the use of pattern scaling to inform adaptation decisions are not always made clear. The range of errors that are expected a priori are discussed and illustrated. Particular examples are used to demonstrate the extent to which pattern scaling is likely to be an unreliable tool for the quantification of the likely impacts of climate change. It is suggested that internal consistency tests are considered in any attempt to apply pattern scaling in practice.

Suggested Citation

  • Ana Lopez & Leonard A. Smith & Emma Suckling, 2011. "Pattern scaled climate change scenarios: are these useful for adaptation?," GRI Working Papers 71, Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment.
    • Handle: RePEc:lsg:lsgwps:wp71
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.lse.ac.uk/GranthamInstitute/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/WP71_pattern-scaled-climate-change-scenarios.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Peter A. Stott & D. A. Stone & M. R. Allen, 2004. "Human contribution to the European heatwave of 2003," Nature, Nature, vol. 432(7017), pages 610-614, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Matthias Schmidt & Hermann Held & Elmar Kriegler & Alexander Lorenz, 2013. "Climate Policy Under Uncertain and Heterogeneous Climate Damages," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 54(1), pages 79-99, January.
    2. Schallaböck, Karl Otto & Fischedick, Manfred & Brouns, Bernd & Luhmann, Hans-Jochen & Merten, Frank, 2006. "Klimawirksame Emissionen des PKW-Verkehrs und Bewertung von Minderungsstrategien," Wuppertal Spezial, Wuppertal Institute for Climate, Environment and Energy, volume 34, number 34.
    3. Pelli, Martino & Tschopp, Jeanne & Bezmaternykh, Natalia & Eklou, Kodjovi M., 2023. "In the eye of the storm: Firms and capital destruction in India," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    4. Michel Beine & Ilan Noy & Christopher Parsons, 2021. "Climate change, migration and voice," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 167(1), pages 1-27, July.
    5. Daron Acemoglu & Philippe Aghion & Leonardo Bursztyn & David Hemous, 2012. "The Environment and Directed Technical Change," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(1), pages 131-166, February.
    6. Luke J. Harrington, 2017. "Investigating differences between event-as-class and probability density-based attribution statements with emerging climate change," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 141(4), pages 641-654, April.
    7. Marlos Goes & Nancy Tuana & Klaus Keller, 2011. "The economics (or lack thereof) of aerosol geoengineering," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 109(3), pages 719-744, December.
    8. Neethu C & K V Ramesh, 2023. "Projected changes in heat wave characteristics over India," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 176(10), pages 1-26, October.
    9. Greg Lusk, 2017. "The social utility of event attribution: liability, adaptation, and justice-based loss and damage," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 143(1), pages 201-212, July.
    10. Daron Acemoglu & Ufuk Akcigit & Douglas Hanley & William Kerr, 2016. "Transition to Clean Technology," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 124(1), pages 52-104.
    11. -, 2018. "Climate Change in Central America: Potential Impacts and Public Policy Options," Sede Subregional de la CEPAL en México (Estudios e Investigaciones) 39150, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
    12. John McClure & Ilan Noy & Yoshi Kashima & Taciano L. Milfont, 2022. "Attributions for extreme weather events: science and the people," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 174(3), pages 1-17, October.
    13. Thomas, Vinod & Albert, Jose Ramon G. & Perez, Rosa T., 2012. "Examination of Intense Climate-related Disasters in the Asia-Pacific," Discussion Papers DP 2012-16, Philippine Institute for Development Studies.
    14. Douglas Hanley & Daron Acemoglu & Ufuk Akcigit & William Kerr, 2014. "Transition to Clean Technology," Working Paper 534, Department of Economics, University of Pittsburgh, revised Jan 2014.
    15. Simon Gosling & Jason Lowe & Glenn McGregor & Mark Pelling & Bruce Malamud, 2009. "Associations between elevated atmospheric temperature and human mortality: a critical review of the literature," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 92(3), pages 299-341, February.
    16. Srinivasan, Venkatraman & Kumar, Praveen, 2015. "Emergent and divergent resilience behavior in catastrophic shift systems," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 298(C), pages 87-105.
    17. Yang, Wangming & Luan, Yibo & Liu, Xiaolei & Yu, Xiaoyong & Miao, Lijuan & Cui, Xuefeng, 2017. "A new global anthropogenic heat estimation based on high-resolution nighttime light data," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 4, pages 1-11.
    18. Megan C. Kirchmeier-Young & Francis W. Zwiers & Nathan P. Gillett & Alex J. Cannon, 2017. "Attributing extreme fire risk in Western Canada to human emissions," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 144(2), pages 365-379, September.
    19. David Martimort & Stéphane Straub, 2016. "How To Design Infrastructure Contracts In A Warming World: A Critical Appraisal Of Public–Private Partnerships," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 57(1), pages 61-88, February.
    20. Luke J. Harrington & Kristie L. Ebi & David J. Frame & Friederike E. L. Otto, 2022. "Integrating attribution with adaptation for unprecedented future heatwaves," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 172(1), pages 1-7, May.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:lsg:lsgwps:wp71. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: The GRI Administration (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/grlseuk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.