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Overconfidence Can Improve an Agent's Relative and Absolute Performance in Contests

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  • Ludwig, Sandra
  • Wichardt, Philipp C.
  • Wickhorst, Hanke

Abstract

This paper suggests a potential rationale for the recent empirical finding that overconfident agents tend to self-select into more competitive environments (e.g. Dohmen and Falk, forthcoming). In particular, it shows that moderate overconfidence in a contest can improve the agent's performance relative to an unbiased opponent and can even lead to an advantage for the overconfident agent in absolute terms.

Suggested Citation

  • Ludwig, Sandra & Wichardt, Philipp C. & Wickhorst, Hanke, 2010. "Overconfidence Can Improve an Agent's Relative and Absolute Performance in Contests," Discussion Papers in Economics 11885, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:lmu:muenec:11885
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    File URL: https://epub.ub.uni-muenchen.de/11885/1/contestsletter_ELR1a.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Luís Santos-Pinto, 2010. "Positive Self-Image In Tournaments," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 51(2), pages 475-496, May.
    2. Bjorn Bartling & Ernst Fehr & Michel Andre Marechal & Daniel Schunk, 2009. "Egalitarianism and Competitiveness," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(2), pages 93-98, May.
    3. Munetomo Ando, 2004. "Overconfidence in Economic Contests," Econometric Society 2004 Far Eastern Meetings 708, Econometric Society.
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    Cited by:

    1. Vanessa Mertins & Wolfgang Hoffeld, 2015. "Do Overconfident Workers Cooperate Less? The Relationship Between Overconfidence and Cooperation in Team Production," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(4), pages 265-274, June.
    2. Zahra Murad & Martin Sefton & Chris Starmer, 2016. "How do risk attitudes affect measured confidence?," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 52(1), pages 21-46, February.
    3. Robert Bordley & Marco Licalzi & Luisa Tibiletti, 2017. "A Target-Based Foundation for the “Hard-Easy Effect” Bias," Eurasian Studies in Business and Economics, in: Mehmet Huseyin Bilgin & Hakan Danis & Ender Demir & Ugur Can (ed.), Country Experiences in Economic Development, Management and Entrepreneurship, pages 659-671, Springer.
    4. Kim Gannon & Hanzhe Zhang, 2020. "An Evolutionary Justification for Overconfidence," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 40(3), pages 2494-2504.
    5. Ivana Vitanova, 2022. "CEO overconfidence and corporate tournaments," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(5), pages 1423-1438, July.
    6. Marcus Roel & Manuel Staab, 2021. "The benefits of being misinformed," AMSE Working Papers 2108, Aix-Marseille School of Economics, France.
    7. Chen, Si & Schildberg-Hörisch, Hannah, 2018. "Looking at the bright side: The motivation value of overconfidence," DICE Discussion Papers 291, Heinrich Heine University Düsseldorf, Düsseldorf Institute for Competition Economics (DICE).
    8. Chen, Si & Schildberg-Hörisch, Hannah, 2019. "Looking at the bright side: The motivational value of confidence," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    9. Cristina Nistor & Matthew Selove, 2020. "Pricing and Quality Provision in a Supply Relationship: A Model of Efficient Relational Contracts," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 39(5), pages 939-955, September.
    10. Simon Dato & Andreas Grunewald & Daniel Müller, 2018. "Expectation-based loss aversion and rank-order tournaments," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 66(4), pages 901-928, December.
    11. Yaoyao Wu, 2022. "Disappointment aversion in tournaments," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(1), pages 26-30, January.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Overconfidence; Contests;

    JEL classification:

    • D21 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Firm Behavior: Theory
    • D44 - Microeconomics - - Market Structure, Pricing, and Design - - - Auctions
    • D82 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Asymmetric and Private Information; Mechanism Design

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