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Zerlegung ökonomischer Zeitreihen: Ein deterministischer und stochastischer Ansatz

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  • Schlicht, Ekkehart

Abstract

The paper discusses a new seasonality hypothesis which is one part of a weighted regression approach for the decomposition of a time series into a trend, a seasonal component and an irregular component. It is shown that there exists a regression formulation leading, as in the descriptive approach in Schlicht (1981), to a unique decomposition withouit having recourse to initial values. It turns out that both solutions to the descriptive regression are conditional expected values in the stochastic specification. The decomposition as well as predciction are illustrated by examples

Suggested Citation

  • Schlicht, Ekkehart, 1984. "Zerlegung ökonomischer Zeitreihen: Ein deterministischer und stochastischer Ansatz," Munich Reprints in Economics 3344, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:lmu:muenar:3344
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    File URL: https://epub.ub.uni-muenchen.de/3344/1/28.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Hirotugu Akaike, 1980. "Seasonal Adjustment By A Bayesian Modeling," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 1(1), pages 1-13, January.
    2. Schlicht, Ekkehart & Pauly, Ralf, 1982. "Descriptive Seasonal Adjustment by Minimizing Perturbations," Darmstadt Discussion Papers in Economics 16, Darmstadt University of Technology, Department of Law and Economics.
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    Cited by:

    1. Nicolas Pinkwart, 2011. "Zur Stabilität von Saisonbereinigungsverfahren: Eine Echtzeitdaten-Analyse am Beispiel BV4.1 und X-12-ARIMA," AStA Wirtschafts- und Sozialstatistisches Archiv, Springer;Deutsche Statistische Gesellschaft - German Statistical Society, vol. 5(2), pages 125-144, August.

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