IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/liv/livedp/202209.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Value-at Risk under Measurement Error

Author

Listed:
  • Mohamed Doukali
  • Xiaojun Song
  • Abderrahim Taamouti

Abstract

We propose an optimization-based estimation of Value-at-Risk that corrects for the effect of measurement errors in prices. We show that measurement errors might pose serious problems for estimating risk measures like Value-at-Risk. In particular, when the stock prices are contaminated, the existing estimators of Value-at-Risk are inconsistent and might lead to an underestimation of risk, which might result in extreme leverage ratios within the held portfolios. Using Fourier transform and a deconvolution kernel estimator of the probability distribution function of true latent prices, we derive a robust estimator of Value-at-Risk in the presence of measurement errors. Monte Carlo simulations and a real data analysis illustrate satisfactory performance of the proposed method.

Suggested Citation

  • Mohamed Doukali & Xiaojun Song & Abderrahim Taamouti, 2022. "Value-at Risk under Measurement Error," Working Papers 202209, University of Liverpool, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:liv:livedp:202209
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.liverpool.ac.uk/media/livacuk/schoolofmanagement/research/economics/Value-at,Risk,under,Measurement,Error.pdf
    File Function: First version, 2022
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Adusumilli, Karun & Kurisu, Daisuke & Otsu, Taisuke & Whang, Yoon-Jae, 2020. "Inference on distribution functions under measurement error," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 215(1), pages 131-164.
    2. Jeremy Berkowitz & James O'Brien, 2002. "How Accurate Are Value‐at‐Risk Models at Commercial Banks?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(3), pages 1093-1111, June.
    3. Ding, Zhuanxin & Granger, Clive W. J. & Engle, Robert F., 1993. "A long memory property of stock market returns and a new model," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 83-106, June.
    4. Hounyo, Ulrich & Gonçalves, Sílvia & Meddahi, Nour, 2017. "Bootstrapping Pre-Averaged Realized Volatility Under Market Microstructure Noise," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 33(4), pages 791-838, August.
    5. Knight, John L. & Yu, Jun, 2002. "Empirical Characteristic Function In Time Series Estimation," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 18(3), pages 691-721, June.
    6. Lwin, Khin T. & Qu, Rong & MacCarthy, Bart L., 2017. "Mean-VaR portfolio optimization: A nonparametric approach," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 260(2), pages 751-766.
    7. Susanne M. Schennach, 2016. "Recent Advances in the Measurement Error Literature," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 8(1), pages 341-377, October.
    8. Jun Pan & Darrell Duffie, 2001. "Analytical value-at-risk with jumps and credit risk," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 5(2), pages 155-180.
    9. Michael McAleer & Marcelo Medeiros, 2008. "Realized Volatility: A Review," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 27(1-3), pages 10-45.
    10. Zhang, Lan & Mykland, Per A. & Ait-Sahalia, Yacine, 2005. "A Tale of Two Time Scales: Determining Integrated Volatility With Noisy High-Frequency Data," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 100, pages 1394-1411, December.
    11. Pérignon, Christophe & Deng, Zi Yin & Wang, Zhi Jun, 2008. "Do banks overstate their Value-at-Risk?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(5), pages 783-794, May.
    12. Zhou, Bin, 1996. "High-Frequency Data and Volatility in Foreign-Exchange Rates," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 14(1), pages 45-52, January.
    13. Frésard, Laurent & Pérignon, Christophe & Wilhelmsson, Anders, 2011. "The pernicious effects of contaminated data in risk management," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(10), pages 2569-2583, October.
    14. Andersen, Torben G. & Bollerslev, Tim & Meddahi, Nour, 2011. "Realized volatility forecasting and market microstructure noise," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 160(1), pages 220-234, January.
    15. Otsu, Taisuke & Taylor, Luke, 2021. "Specification Testing For Errors-In-Variables Models," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 37(4), pages 747-768, August.
    16. Nason, Guy P., 2006. "On the sum of t and Gaussian random variables," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 76(12), pages 1280-1286, July.
    17. Schennach, Susanne M., 2004. "Nonparametric Regression In The Presence Of Measurement Error," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 20(6), pages 1046-1093, December.
    18. Ole E. Barndorff‐Nielsen & Neil Shephard, 2002. "Econometric analysis of realized volatility and its use in estimating stochastic volatility models," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 64(2), pages 253-280, May.
    19. Barndorff-Nielsen, Ole E. & Hansen, Peter Reinhard & Lunde, Asger & Shephard, Neil, 2011. "Subsampling realised kernels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 160(1), pages 204-219, January.
    20. Alexander, Gordon J. & Baptista, Alexandre M., 2008. "Active portfolio management with benchmarking: Adding a value-at-risk constraint," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 779-820, March.
    21. Madhavan, Ananth, 2000. "Market microstructure: A survey," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 3(3), pages 205-258, August.
    22. Andersen, Torben G. & Bollerslev, Tim & Diebold, Francis X. & Ebens, Heiko, 2001. "The distribution of realized stock return volatility," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(1), pages 43-76, July.
    23. Bandi, Federico M. & Russell, Jeffrey R., 2006. "Separating microstructure noise from volatility," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(3), pages 655-692, March.
    24. Jun Yu, 2004. "Empirical Characteristic Function Estimation and Its Applications," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(2), pages 93-123.
    25. Robert B. Davies, 1980. "The Distribution of a Linear Combination of χ2 Random Variables," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 29(3), pages 323-333, November.
    26. Billio, Monica & Pelizzon, Loriana, 2000. "Value-at-Risk: a multivariate switching regime approach," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 7(5), pages 531-554, December.
    27. Hansen, Peter R. & Lunde, Asger, 2006. "Realized Variance and Market Microstructure Noise," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 24, pages 127-161, April.
    28. Mancino, M.E. & Sanfelici, S., 2008. "Robustness of Fourier estimator of integrated volatility in the presence of microstructure noise," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 52(6), pages 2966-2989, February.
    29. Taamouti, Abderrahim, 2009. "Analytical Value-at-Risk and Expected Shortfall under regime-switching," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 6(3), pages 138-151, September.
    30. James W. Taylor, 2008. "Estimating Value at Risk and Expected Shortfall Using Expectiles," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 6(2), pages 231-252, Spring.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. McAleer, Michael & Medeiros, Marcelo C., 2008. "A multiple regime smooth transition Heterogeneous Autoregressive model for long memory and asymmetries," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 147(1), pages 104-119, November.
    2. Liu, Lily Y. & Patton, Andrew J. & Sheppard, Kevin, 2015. "Does anything beat 5-minute RV? A comparison of realized measures across multiple asset classes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 187(1), pages 293-311.
    3. Chaboud, Alain P. & Chiquoine, Benjamin & Hjalmarsson, Erik & Loretan, Mico, 2010. "Frequency of observation and the estimation of integrated volatility in deep and liquid financial markets," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 212-240, March.
    4. Patton, Andrew J., 2011. "Data-based ranking of realised volatility estimators," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 161(2), pages 284-303, April.
    5. Andersen, Torben G. & Bollerslev, Tim & Christoffersen, Peter F. & Diebold, Francis X., 2013. "Financial Risk Measurement for Financial Risk Management," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1127-1220, Elsevier.
    6. Chun Liu & John M. Maheu, 2009. "Forecasting realized volatility: a Bayesian model-averaging approach," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(5), pages 709-733.
    7. Christensen, Kim & Oomen, Roel & Podolskij, Mark, 2010. "Realised quantile-based estimation of the integrated variance," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 159(1), pages 74-98, November.
    8. Aït-Sahalia, Yacine & Mancini, Loriano, 2008. "Out of sample forecasts of quadratic variation," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 147(1), pages 17-33, November.
    9. Bandi, Federico M. & Russell, Jeffrey R. & Yang, Chen, 2008. "Realized volatility forecasting and option pricing," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 147(1), pages 34-46, November.
    10. Shephard, Neil & Xiu, Dacheng, 2017. "Econometric analysis of multivariate realised QML: Estimation of the covariation of equity prices under asynchronous trading," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 201(1), pages 19-42.
    11. Henning Fischer & Ángela Blanco‐FERNÁndez & Peter Winker, 2016. "Predicting Stock Return Volatility: Can We Benefit from Regression Models for Return Intervals?," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 35(2), pages 113-146, March.
    12. repec:hal:journl:peer-00732538 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Maria Elvira Mancino & Simona Sanfelici, 2012. "Estimation of quarticity with high-frequency data," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(4), pages 607-622, December.
    14. Julien Chevallier & Benoît Sévi, 2011. "On the realized volatility of the ECX CO 2 emissions 2008 futures contract: distribution, dynamics and forecasting," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 7(1), pages 1-29, February.
    15. Peter C. B. Phillips & Jun Yu, 2023. "Information loss in volatility measurement with flat price trading," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 64(6), pages 2957-2999, June.
    16. Zhang, Lan & Mykland, Per A. & Aït-Sahalia, Yacine, 2011. "Edgeworth expansions for realized volatility and related estimators," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 160(1), pages 190-203, January.
    17. Michael McAleer & Marcelo C. Medeiros, 2009. "Forecasting Realized Volatility with Linear and Nonlinear Models," CARF F-Series CARF-F-189, Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo.
    18. Christensen, K. & Podolskij, M. & Thamrongrat, N. & Veliyev, B., 2017. "Inference from high-frequency data: A subsampling approach," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 197(2), pages 245-272.
    19. Jin-Huei Yeh & Jying-Nan Wang & Chung-Ming Kuan, 2014. "A noise-robust estimator of volatility based on interquantile ranges," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 43(4), pages 751-779, November.
    20. Corradi, Valentina & Distaso, Walter & Swanson, Norman R., 2009. "Predictive density estimators for daily volatility based on the use of realized measures," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 150(2), pages 119-138, June.
    21. Yeh, Jin-Huei & Wang, Jying-Nan, 2010. "Correcting microstructure comovement biases for integrated covariance," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 184-191, September.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Deconvolution kernel; Fourier transform; measurement errors; market microstructure noise; optimization; Value-at-Risk;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G19 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Other
    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
    • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:liv:livedp:202209. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Rachel Slater (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/mslivuk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.