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Looking Into the Abyss? Brazil at the Mid-2010s

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  • Fernando J. Cardim de Carvalho

Abstract

The Brazilian economy in 2015 was afflicted by a lethal combination of decelerating activity and accelerating inflation. Expectations for 2016 are equally or even more adverse, since the effects of rising unemployment emerge only after a lag. The domestic debate has pitted analysts who believe the crisis is due exclusively to past policy mistakes against those who believe that all was well until the government decided to implement austerity policies in 2015. A closer examination of the evidence shows that, in fact, both causes contributed to the crisis. But it also suggests that its depth has a more proximate cause in the political collapse of the federal government in 2015, which led Brazilian society to an impasse for which one cannot yet visualize the solution.

Suggested Citation

  • Fernando J. Cardim de Carvalho, 2016. "Looking Into the Abyss? Brazil at the Mid-2010s," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_860, Levy Economics Institute.
    • Handle: RePEc:lev:wrkpap:wp_860
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. George A. Akerlof & Olivier Blanchard & David Romer & Joseph E. Stiglitz (ed.), 2014. "What Have We Learned? Macroeconomic Policy After the Crisis," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262027348, December.
    2. Jan Kregel, 2009. "The Global Crisis and the Implications for Developing Countries and the BRICs," Brazilian Journal of Political Economy, Center of Political Economy, vol. 29(4), pages 341-356.
    3. Jan Kregel, 2009. "The Global Crisis and the Implications for Developing Countries and the BRICs: Is the B Really Justified?," Economics Public Policy Brief Archive ppb_102, Levy Economics Institute.
    4. Carmem Aparecida Feijo & Fernando J. Cardim De Carvalho, 1992. "The Resilience of High Inflation: Recent Brazilian Failures with Stabilization Policies," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(1), pages 109-124, September.
    5. de Carvalho, Fernando J Cardim, 1993. "Strato-inflation and High Inflation: The Brazilian Experience," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 17(1), pages 63-78, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Fernando J. Cardim de Carvalho, 2016. "The Narrow Path for Brazil," Economics Policy Note Archive 16-2, Levy Economics Institute.
    2. Tanweer Akram & Syed Al-Helal Uddin, 2020. "An Empirical Analysis of Long-Term Brazilian Interest Rates," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_956, Levy Economics Institute.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Brazilian Economy; Macroeconomic Policy; Great Recession;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E60 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General

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