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Estimating Liquidity Risk Using The Exposure-Based Cash-Flow-at-Risk Approach: An Application To the UK Banking Sector

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Abstract

This paper uses a relatively new quantitative model for estimating UK banks' liquidity risk. The model is called the Exposure-Based Cash-Flow-at-Risk (CFaR) model, which not only measures a bank's liquidity risk tolerance, but also helps to improve liquidity risk management through the provision of additional risk exposure information. Using data for the period 1997-2010, we provide evidence that there is variable funding pressure across the UK banking industry, which is forecasted to be slightly illiquid with a small amount of expected cash outflow (i.e. £0.06 billion) in 2011. In our sample of the six biggest UK banks, only the HSBC maintains positive CFaR with 95% confidence, which means that there is only a 5% chance that HSBC's cash flow will drop below £0.67 billion by the end of 2011. RBS is expected to face the largest liquidity risk with a 5% chance that the bank will face a cash outflow that year in excess of £40.29 billion. Our estimates also suggest Lloyds TSB's cash flow is the most volatile of the six biggest UK banks, because it has the biggest deviation between its downside cash flow (i.e. CFaR) and expected cash flow.

Suggested Citation

  • Meilin Yan & Maximilian J. B. Hall & Paul Turner, 2011. "Estimating Liquidity Risk Using The Exposure-Based Cash-Flow-at-Risk Approach: An Application To the UK Banking Sector," Discussion Paper Series 2011_06, Department of Economics, Loughborough University, revised Nov 2011.
    • Handle: RePEc:lbo:lbowps:2011_06
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    File URL: http://www.lboro.ac.uk/departments/sbe/RePEc/lbo/lbowps/Yan_Hall_TurnerWP6.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Niclas Andrén & Håkan Jankensgård & Lars Oxelheim, 2005. "Exposure‐Based Cash‐Flow‐at‐Risk: An Alternative to VaR for Industrial Companies," Journal of Applied Corporate Finance, Morgan Stanley, vol. 17(3), pages 76-86, June.
    2. Evert Wipplinger, 2007. "Philippe Jorion: Value at Risk – The New Benchmark for Managing Financial Risk," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 21(3), pages 397-398, September.
    3. Glyn A. Holton, 2002. "History of Value-at-Risk: 1922-1998," Method and Hist of Econ Thought 0207001, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Gupta, Anurag & Liang, Bing, 2005. "Do hedge funds have enough capital? A value-at-risk approach," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(1), pages 219-253, July.
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    Cited by:

    1. Voloshyn, Ihor & Voloshyn, Mykyta, 2013. "Integrated risk management in a commercial market-maker bank using the 'cash flow at risk' approach," MPRA Paper 61562, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Voloshyn, Ihor & Voloshyn, Mykyta, 2013. "Risk-adjusted pricing of bank’s assets based on cash flow matching matrix," MPRA Paper 61611, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Davide Salvatore Mare & Dieter Gramlich, 2021. "Risk exposures of European cooperative banks: a comparative analysis," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 56(1), pages 1-23, January.
    4. Matthias Nnadi & Vachiraporn Surichamorn & Ranadeva Jayasekera & Yacine Belghitar, 2022. "Empirical analysis of debt maturity, cash holdings and firm investment in developing economies," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(3), pages 3345-3372, July.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Liquidity risk; Exposure-based CFaR; Risk Management; Funding Pressure;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C87 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Econometric Software
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill

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