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Reformulating Empirical Macroeconomic Modelling

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  • Hendry, David F
  • Mizon, Grayham E

Abstract

The policy implications of estimated macro-econometric systems depend on the formulations of their equations, the methodology of empirical model selection and evaluation, the techniques of policy analysis, and their forecast performance. Drawing on recent results in the theory of forecasting, we question the role of "rational expectations"; criticize a common approach to testing economic theories; show that impulse-response methods of evaluating policy are seriously flawed; and question the mechanistic derivation of forecasts from econometric systems. In their place, we propose that expectations should be treated as instrumental to agents' decisions; discuss a powerful new approach to the empirical modelling of econometric relationships; offer viable alternatives to studying policy implications; and note modifications to forecasting devices that can enhance their robustness to unanticipated structural breaks. Copyright 2000 by Oxford University Press.

Suggested Citation

  • Hendry, David F & Mizon, Grayham E, 2000. "Reformulating Empirical Macroeconomic Modelling," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 16(4), pages 138-159, Winter.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:oxford:v:16:y:2000:i:4:p:138-59
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Katarina Juselius, 2017. "A CVAR scenario for a standard monetary model using theory-consistent expectations," Discussion Papers 17-08, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
    2. Leiva, Benjamin & Liu, Zhongyuan, 2019. "Energy and economic growth in the USA two decades later: Replication and reanalysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 89-99.
    3. Ericsson, Neil R., 2017. "Economic forecasting in theory and practice: An interview with David F. Hendry," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 523-542.
    4. Amit Kara & Edward Nelson, 2004. "International Evidence on the Stability of the Optimizing IS Equation," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 66(s1), pages 687-712, September.
    5. Katarina Juselius, 2022. "A Theory-Consistent CVAR Scenario for a Monetary Model with Forward-Looking Expectations," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 10(2), pages 1-15, April.
    6. Janine Aron & John Muellbauer, 2002. "Interest Rate Effects on Output: Evidence from a GDP Forecasting Model for South Africa," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 49(Special i), pages 185-213.
    7. Ericsson Neil R., 2008. "Comment on "Economic Forecasting in a Changing World" (by Michael Clements and David Hendry)," Capitalism and Society, De Gruyter, vol. 3(2), pages 1-18, October.
    8. Benjamin Leiva & Mar Rubio-Varas, 2020. "The Energy and Gross Domestic Product Causality Nexus in Latin America 1900-2010," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 10(1), pages 423-435.
    9. Rodríguez-Caballero, Carlos Vladimir & Ventosa-Santaulària, Daniel, 2017. "Energy-growth long-term relationship under structural breaks. Evidence from Canada, 17 Latin American economies and the USA," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 121-134.
    10. Bardsen, Gunnar & Eitrheim, Oyvind & Jansen, Eilev S. & Nymoen, Ragnar, 2005. "The Econometrics of Macroeconomic Modelling," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199246502.
    11. Goyal, Ashima, 2002. "Coordinating monetary and fiscal policies: a role for rules?," MPRA Paper 29200, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Christopher Allsopp, 2002. "Macroeconomic Policy Rules in Theory and in Practice," Discussion Papers 10, Monetary Policy Committee Unit, Bank of England.

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