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A General Theory of Decision Making

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  • Frank Hansen

    (Institute of Economics, University of Copenhagen)

Abstract

We formulate a general theory of decision making based on a lattice of observable events, and we exhibit a large class of representations called the general model. Some of the representations are equivalent to the so called standard model in which observable events are modelled by an algebra of measurable subsets of a state space, while others are not compatible with such a description. We show that the general model collapses to the standard model, if and only if an additional axiom is satisfied. We argue that this axiom is not very natural and thus assert that the standard model may not be general enough to model all relevant phenomena in economics. Using the general model we are (as opposed to Schmeidler [18]) able to rationalize Ellsberg's paradox without the introduction of non-additive measures.

Suggested Citation

  • Frank Hansen, 2003. "A General Theory of Decision Making," Discussion Papers 03-38, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics, revised Aug 2005.
    • Handle: RePEc:kud:kuiedp:0338
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Quiggin, John, 1982. "A theory of anticipated utility," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 323-343, December.
    2. William Fellner, 1961. "Distortion of Subjective Probabilities as a Reaction to Uncertainty," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 75(4), pages 670-689.
    3. Gilboa, Itzhak, 1987. "Expected utility with purely subjective non-additive probabilities," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 65-88, February.
    4. Daniel Ellsberg, 1961. "Risk, Ambiguity, and the Savage Axioms," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 75(4), pages 643-669.
    5. Epstein, Larry G & Wang, Tan, 1994. "Intertemporal Asset Pricing Under Knightian Uncertainty," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 62(2), pages 283-322, March.
    6. Howard Raiffa, 1961. "Risk, Ambiguity, and the Savage Axioms: Comment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 75(4), pages 690-694.
    7. Schmeidler, David, 1989. "Subjective Probability and Expected Utility without Additivity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(3), pages 571-587, May.
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    Cited by:

    1. Dino Borie, 2013. "Expected utility theory with non-commutative probability theory," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 8(2), pages 295-315, October.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    theory of decision making; Ellsberg's paradox;

    JEL classification:

    • D8 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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