An empirical analysis of the effect of increasing male wage inequality on female marriage behavior in Japan

This paper examines the effect of the greater inequality in the lower than in the upper tail of the male wage distribution on female marriage behavior in Japan, using a new analysis framework. I first formulated the analytical model applying the gmedian-preserving spread h method to a marriage search model and then analyzed the theoretical hypothesis empirically, using extensive individual Japanese data from the Employment Status Survey, which examined a large sample. The theoretical and empirical results show that the higher male wage inequality in the lower tail, which is due to an increase in the male non-regular employment rate, has a significant effect on the rising single-female rate. Furthermore, the increase in the gnon-regular employment h rate, regardless of the employment contract period, also has a significant effect on the rising single-female rate, even where the increasing male wage in the lower tail is controlled for. These results suggest that policies to improve the income security of the low-income male and to promote a shift from non-regular to regular employment are needed to raise the female marriage rate.