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Tracking COVID-19 Spread in Italy with Mobility Data

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  • Nuriye Melisa Bilgin

    (Koç University)

Abstract

This paper provides insights for policymakers to evaluate the impact of staying at home and lockdown policies by investigating possible links between individual mobility and the spread of the COVID-19 virus in Italy. By relying on the daily data, the empirical evidence suggests that an increase in the number of visits to public spaces such as workspaces, parks, retail areas, and the use of public transportation is associated with an increase in the positive COVID-19 cases in a subsequent week. On the contrary, the increased intensity of staying in residential spaces is related to a decrease in the confirmed cases of COVID-19 significantly. Results are robust after controlling for the lockdown period. Empirical evidence underlines the importance of the lockdown decision. Further, there is substantial regional variation among the twenty regions of Italy. Individual presence in public vs. residential spaces has a more significant effect on the number of COVID-19 cases in the Lombardy region.

Suggested Citation

  • Nuriye Melisa Bilgin, 2020. "Tracking COVID-19 Spread in Italy with Mobility Data," Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers 2012, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum.
    • Handle: RePEc:koc:wpaper:2012
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    File URL: https://eaf.ku.edu.tr/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/erf_wp_2012.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Theresa Kuchler & Dominic Russel & Johannes Stroebel, 2020. "The Geographic Spread of COVID-19 Correlates with the Structure of Social Networks as Measured by Facebook," NBER Working Papers 26990, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Ho Fai Chan & Ahmed Skali & Benno Torgler, 2020. "A Global Dataset of Human Mobility," CREMA Working Paper Series 2020-04, Center for Research in Economics, Management and the Arts (CREMA).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    Cited by:

    1. Mauro Caselli & Andrea Fracasso & Sergio Scicchitano, 2020. "From the lockdown to the new normal: An analysis of the limitations to individual mobility in Italy following the Covid-19 crisis," Discussion Paper series in Regional Science & Economic Geography 2020-07, Gran Sasso Science Institute, Social Sciences, revised Oct 2020.
    2. Leonardo Fabio Morales & Leonardo Bonilla‐Mejía & Jose Pulido & Luz A. Flórez & Didier Hermida & Karen L. Pulido‐Mahecha & Francisco Lasso‐Valderrama, 2022. "Effects of the COVID‐19 pandemic on the Colombian labour market: Disentangling the effect of sector‐specific mobility restrictions," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 55(S1), pages 308-357, February.
    3. Paolo Nicola Barbieri & Beatrice Bonini, 2021. "Political orientation and adherence to social distancing during the COVID-19 pandemic in Italy," Economia Politica: Journal of Analytical and Institutional Economics, Springer;Fondazione Edison, vol. 38(2), pages 483-504, July.
    4. Hedi Haddad & Zied Bouyahia & Leila Horchani, 2022. "On the Sustainability of Shared Mobility Since COVID-19: From Socially Structured to Social Bubble Vanpooling," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(23), pages 1-22, November.
    5. William J. Luther, 2021. "Behavioral and Policy Responses to COVID-19: Evidence from Google Mobility Data on State- Level Stay-at-Home Orders," Journal of Private Enterprise, The Association of Private Enterprise Education, vol. 36(Fall 2021), pages 67-89.
    6. Tanmoy Bhowmik & Sudipta Dey Tirtha & Naveen Chandra Iraganaboina & Naveen Eluru, 2021. "A comprehensive analysis of COVID-19 transmission and mortality rates at the county level in the United States considering socio-demographics, health indicators, mobility trends and health care infras," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(4), pages 1-15, April.
    7. Mauro Caselli & Andrea Fracasso & Sergio Scicchitano, 2022. "From the lockdown to the new normal: individual mobility and local labor market characteristics following the COVID-19 pandemic in Italy," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 35(4), pages 1517-1550, October.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    COVID-19; Coronavirus; Italy; Regional Heterogeneity; Mobility.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • I10 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - General
    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health
    • I31 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - General Welfare, Well-Being

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