Modeling of Economic and Financial Conditions for Nowcasting and Forecasting Recessions: A Unified Approach
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- Altug, Sumru & Çakmaklı, Cem & Demircan, Hamza, 2018. "Modeling of Economic and Financial Conditions for Nowcasting and Forecasting Recessions: A Unified Approach," CEPR Discussion Papers 13171, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
References listed on IDEAS
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More about this item
Keywords
Financial conditions index; Coincident economic index; Dynamic factor model; Markov switching; Imperfect synchronization; Bayesian inference.;All these keywords.
JEL classification:
- C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
- C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
- C38 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Classification Methdos; Cluster Analysis; Principal Components; Factor Analysis
- E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
NEP fields
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:- NEP-ARA-2019-05-06 (MENA - Middle East and North Africa)
- NEP-FOR-2019-05-06 (Forecasting)
- NEP-MAC-2019-05-06 (Macroeconomics)
- NEP-ORE-2019-05-06 (Operations Research)
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