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Liquidity Trap and the Stability of Money Demand: Is Japan Really Trapped at the Zero Bound?

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  • Ryuzo Miyao

    (Research Institute for Economics & Business Administration (RIEB), Kobe University, Japan)

Abstract

Is the Japanese economy really trapped at the zero interest rate bound? The question seems particularly important because recent theoretical discussions on liquidity traps suggest that undesirable dynamics such as "deflationary spiral" are likely to occur when the economy reaches the lower zero bound. This paper attempts to answer the above question by analyzing the stability of an equilibrium money demand relationship in Japan. Specifically, it performs a formal analysis on the presence and stability of cointegration in M1 demand in Japan and argues that the answer seems negative. With the double-log specification, a cointegrating M1 relationship exists and is found to be stable (i.e. no break in the interest elasticity) even after 1995 when nominal rates were lowered to a decimal point level or virtually "zero percent".

Suggested Citation

  • Ryuzo Miyao, 2002. "Liquidity Trap and the Stability of Money Demand: Is Japan Really Trapped at the Zero Bound?," Discussion Paper Series 127, Research Institute for Economics & Business Administration, Kobe University.
    • Handle: RePEc:kob:dpaper:127
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    File URL: https://www.rieb.kobe-u.ac.jp/academic/ra/dp/English/dp127.pdf
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    Cited by:

    1. Tsutomu Watanabe, 2020. "The Welfare Implications of Massive Money Injection: The Japanese Experience from 2013 to 2020," CARF F-Series CARF-F-493, Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo.
    2. Nicholas Apergis, 2015. "Money Demand Sensitivity to Interest Rates: The Case of Japans Zero-Interest Rate Policy," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 5(9), pages 1043-1049, September.
    3. Assenmacher-Wesche, Katrin & Gerlach, Stefan & Sekine, Toshitaka, 2008. "Monetary factors and inflation in Japan," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 343-363, September.
    4. Nakashima, Kiyotaka & Saito, Makoto, 2009. "On Empirical Implications of Highly Interest-Elastic Money Demand : A Note," Hitotsubashi Journal of Economics, Hitotsubashi University, vol. 50(1), pages 29-34, June.
    5. Hiroshi Ugai, 2007. "Effects of the Quantitative Easing Policy: A Survey of Empirical Analyses," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 25(1), pages 1-48, March.
    6. Laurence M. Ball, 2006. "Fiscal Remedies for Japan's Slump," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Policy with Very Low Inflation in the Pacific Rim, pages 279-304, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Tsutomu Watanabe, 2020. "The Welfare Implications of Massive Money Injection: The Japanese Experience from 2013 to 2020," Working Papers on Central Bank Communication 028, University of Tokyo, Graduate School of Economics.
    8. Tsutomu Watanabe & Tomoyoshi Yabu, 2019. "How Large is the Demand for Money at the ZLB? Evidence from Japan," Working Papers on Central Bank Communication 013, University of Tokyo, Graduate School of Economics.
    9. Fujiki, Hiroshi & Tomura, Hajime, 2017. "Fiscal cost to exit quantitative easing: the case of Japan," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 1-11.
    10. Hiroshi Fujiki, 2014. "Japanese Money Demand from the Regional Data: An Update and Some Additional Results," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 32, pages 45-102, November.
    11. Inagaki, Kazuyuki, 2009. "Estimating the interest rate semi-elasticity of the demand for money in low interest rate environments," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 147-154, January.
    12. Nakashima, Kiyotaka, 2008. "An Extremely Low Interest Rate Policy and the Shape of the Japanese Money Demand Function: A Nonlinear Cointegration Approach," MPRA Paper 70689, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Nakashima, Kiyotaka & Saito, Makoto, 2012. "On the comparison of alternative specifications for money demand: The case of extremely low interest rate regimes in Japan," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 454-471.
    14. Ryuzo Miyao, 2005. "Use Of The Money Supply In The Conduct Of Japan'S Monetary Policy: Re‐Examining The Time‐Series Evidence," The Japanese Economic Review, Japanese Economic Association, vol. 56(2), pages 165-187, June.
    15. Hiroshi Ugai, 2006. "Effects of the Quantitative Easing Policy: A Survey of Empirical Analyses," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 06-E-10, Bank of Japan.
    16. Seidman, Laurence & Lewis, Kenneth, 2015. "Stimulus without debt in a severe recession," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 37(6), pages 945-960.
    17. Hiroshi FUJIKI & Kiyotaka Nakashima, 2019. "Cash Usage Trends in Japan: Evidence Using Aggregate and Household Survey Data," Working Papers e131, Tokyo Center for Economic Research.

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