IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/cfi/fseres/cf493.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Welfare Implications of Massive Money Injection: The Japanese Experience from 2013 to 2020

Author

Listed:
  • Tsutomu Watanabe

    (Graduate School of Economics, University of Tokyo)

Abstract

This paper derives a money demand function that explicitly takes the costs of storing money into account. This function is then used to examine the consequences of the large-scale money injection conducted by the Bank of Japan since April 2013. The main findings are as follows. First, the opportunity cost of holding money calculated using 1-year government bond yields has been negative since the fourth quarter of 2014, and most recently (2020:Q2) was -0.2%. Second, the marginal cost of storing money, which was 0.3% in the most recent quarter, exceeds the marginal utility of money, which was 0.1%. Third, the optimum quantity of money, measured by the ratio of M1 to nominal GDP, is 1.2. In contrast, the actual money-income ratio in the most recent quarter was 1.8. The welfare loss relative to the maximum welfare obtained under the optimum quantity of money in the most recent quarter was 0.2% of nominal GDP. The findings imply that the Bank of Japan needs to reduce M1 by more than 30%, for example through measures that impose a penalty on holding money.

Suggested Citation

  • Tsutomu Watanabe, 2020. "The Welfare Implications of Massive Money Injection: The Japanese Experience from 2013 to 2020," CARF F-Series CARF-F-493, Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo.
    • Handle: RePEc:cfi:fseres:cf493
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.carf.e.u-tokyo.ac.jp/admin/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/F493.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Tsutomu Watanabe & Tomoyoshi Yabu, 2019. "How Large is the Demand for Money at the ZLB? Evidence from Japan," Working Papers on Central Bank Communication 013, University of Tokyo, Graduate School of Economics.
    2. Ravallion, Martin, 2017. "A concave log-like transformation allowing non-positive values," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 161(C), pages 130-132.
    3. Nakashima, Kiyotaka & Saito, Makoto, 2012. "On the comparison of alternative specifications for money demand: The case of extremely low interest rate regimes in Japan," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 454-471.
    4. William J. Baumol, 1952. "The Transactions Demand for Cash: An Inventory Theoretic Approach," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 66(4), pages 545-556.
    5. Tsutomu Watanabe & Tomoyoshi Yabu, 2018. "The Demand for Money at the Zero Interest Rate Bound," CARF F-Series CARF-F-444, Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo.
    6. Stéphane Dupraz, 2024. "A Kinked‐Demand Theory of Price Rigidity," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 56(2-3), pages 325-363, March.
    7. Joseph Abadi & Markus Brunnermeier & Yann Koby, 2023. "The Reversal Interest Rate," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 113(8), pages 2084-2120, August.
    8. Gauti B. Eggertsson & Michael Woodford, 2003. "The Zero Bound on Interest Rates and Optimal Monetary Policy," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 34(1), pages 139-235.
    9. Schmiedel, Heiko & Kostova, Gergana & Ruttenberg, Wiebe, 2012. "The social and private costs of retail payment instruments: a European perspective," Occasional Paper Series 137, European Central Bank.
    10. Gauti B. Eggertsson & Ragnar E. Juelsrud & Lawrence H. Summers & Ella Getz Wold, 2019. "Negative nominal interest rates and the bank lending channel," Working Paper 2019/4, Norges Bank.
    11. Schmiedel, Heiko & Kostova, Gergana & Ruttenberg, Wiebe, 2012. "The social and private costs of retail payment instruments: a European perspective," Occasional Paper Series 137, European Central Bank.
    12. Ruchir Agarwal & Miles Kimball, 2019. "Enabling Deep Negative Rates to Fight Recessions: A Guide," IMF Working Papers 2019/084, International Monetary Fund.
    13. Daniel L. Thornton, 1999. "Nominal interest rates: less than zero?," Monetary Trends, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jan.
    14. Kota Watanabe & Tsutomu Watanabe, 2018. "Why Has Japan Failed to Escape from Deflation?," Asian Economic Policy Review, Japan Center for Economic Research, vol. 13(1), pages 23-41, January.
    15. Ryuzo Miyao, 2002. "Liquidity Trap and the Stability of Money Demand: Is Japan Really Trapped at the Zero Bound?," Discussion Paper Series 127, Research Institute for Economics & Business Administration, Kobe University.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Mitsuhiro Fukao, 2021. "Comment on “The Welfare Implications of Massive Money Injection: The Japanese Experience from 2013 to 2020”," Asian Economic Policy Review, Japan Center for Economic Research, vol. 16(2), pages 245-246, July.
    2. Takatoshi Ito, 2021. "An Assessment of Abenomics: Evolution and Achievements," Asian Economic Policy Review, Japan Center for Economic Research, vol. 16(2), pages 190-219, July.
    3. Takatoshi Ito & Kazumasa Iwata & Colin McKenzie & Shujiro Urata, 2021. "The Post‐Abenomics Japanese Economy: Editors' Overview," Asian Economic Policy Review, Japan Center for Economic Research, vol. 16(2), pages 169-189, July.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Tsutomu Watanabe, 2020. "The Welfare Implications of Massive Money Injection: The Japanese Experience from 2013 to 2020," Working Papers on Central Bank Communication 028, University of Tokyo, Graduate School of Economics.
    2. Tsutomu Watanabe, 2021. "The Welfare Implications of Massive Money Injection: The Japanese Experience from 2013 to 2020," Asian Economic Policy Review, Japan Center for Economic Research, vol. 16(2), pages 224-242, July.
    3. Tsutomu Watanabe & Tomoyoshi Yabu, 2019. "How Large is the Demand for Money at the ZLB? Evidence from Japan," Working Papers on Central Bank Communication 013, University of Tokyo, Graduate School of Economics.
    4. Jeffrey R. Campbell & Thomas B. King & Anna Orlik & Rebecca Zarutskie, 2020. "Issues Regarding the Use of the Policy Rate Tool," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-070, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    5. de Groot, Oliver & Haas, Alexander, 2023. "The signalling channel of negative interest rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 138(C), pages 87-103.
    6. William John Tayler & Roy Zilberman, 2019. "Unconventional Policies in State-Contingent Liquidity Traps," Working Papers 257107351, Lancaster University Management School, Economics Department.
    7. Schmidt-Dengler, Philipp & Stix, Helmut & Huynh, Kim P., 2014. "The Role of Card Acceptance in the Transaction Demand for Money," CEPR Discussion Papers 10183, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    8. Tekam Oumbe & Chouafi Nguekam & Takoulac Kamta & Ongo, 2020. "Retrospective Analysis of the Application of the ECBs Key Interest Rates to the Macroeconomic Indicators of the CEMAC," Asian Journal of Economic Modelling, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 8(3), pages 141-151, September.
    9. Edoardo Rainone, 2022. "Currency demand at negative policy rates," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1359, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    10. Hiroshi Fujiki, 2014. "Japanese Money Demand from the Regional Data: An Update and Some Additional Results," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 32, pages 45-102, November.
    11. Aleksander Berentsen & Hugo van Buggenum & Romina Ruprecht, 2020. "On the negatives of negative interest rates and the positives of exemption thresholds," ECON - Working Papers 372, Department of Economics - University of Zurich.
    12. Hanna Armelius & Carl Andreas Claussen & André Reslow, 2022. "Withering Cash: Is Sweden Ahead of the Curve or Just Special?," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 18(4), pages 1-52, October.
    13. Cavallino, Paolo & Sandri, Damiano, 2023. "The open-economy ELB: Contractionary monetary easing and the trilemma," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    14. David, Bounie & Abel, François & Patrick, Waelbroeck, 2016. "Debit card and demand for cash," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 55-66.
    15. Altavilla, Carlo & Lemke, Wolfgang & Linzert, Tobias & Tapking, Jens & von Landesberger, Julian, 2021. "Assessing the efficacy, efficiency and potential side effects of the ECB’s monetary policy instruments since 2014," Occasional Paper Series 278, European Central Bank.
    16. Cynthia Balloch & Yann Koby & Mauricio Ulate, 2022. "Making Sense of Negative Nominal Interest Rates," Working Paper Series 2022-12, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    17. Grahame Johnson & Sharon Kozicki & Romanos Priftis & Lena Suchanek & Jonathan Witmer & Jing Yang, 2020. "Implementation and Effectiveness of Extended Monetary Policy Tools: Lessons from the Literature," Discussion Papers 2020-16, Bank of Canada.
    18. Avignone, Giuseppe & Girardone, Claudia & Pancaro, Cosimo & Pancotto, Livia & Reghezza, Alessio, 2022. "Making a virtue out of necessity: the effect of negative interest rates on bank cost efficiency," Working Paper Series 2718, European Central Bank.
    19. Saito, Makoto & 齊藤, 誠, 2020. "Long-run mild deflation under fiscal unsustainability in Japan," Discussion Paper Series 703, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    20. Ilona Skibińska-Fabrowska & Małgorzata Czuchryta & Adrian Żak, 2023. "The relationship between payment inclusion and the demand for cash," Bank i Kredyt, Narodowy Bank Polski, vol. 54(4), pages 365-388.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cfi:fseres:cf493. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/catokjp.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.