IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/jku/econwp/2006_11.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Bank income and profits over the business and interest rate cycle

Author

Abstract

If and how the conduct of the banking sector contributes to the propagation of aggregate shocks has become a prominent empirical research question. This study explores what a cyclicality analysis of net interest margins and spreads, as well as profitability figures, can contribute to the discussion. By using time series data for the Austrian banking sector from 1987 to 2005, it is found that many of these measures fall in economic upturns. Net interest income from granting loans and taking deposits from non-banks, however, evolves procyclically and increases with rising interest rates. Combined with the observation that the margins’ countercyclical variations are rather small, it can be concluded that there is no striking evidence for a financial accelerator caused by the Austrian banking sector.

Suggested Citation

  • Johann Burgstaller, 2006. "Bank income and profits over the business and interest rate cycle," Economics working papers 2006-11, Department of Economics, Johannes Kepler University Linz, Austria.
    • Handle: RePEc:jku:econwp:2006_11
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.econ.jku.at/papers/2006/wp0611.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bernanke, Ben & Gertler, Mark & Gilchrist, Simon, 1996. "The Financial Accelerator and the Flight to Quality," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 78(1), pages 1-15, February.
    2. R. Glenn Hubbard, 1995. "Is there a \\"credit channel\\" for monetary policy?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue May, pages 63-77.
    3. Christopher A. Sims & Tao Zha, 1999. "Error Bands for Impulse Responses," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 67(5), pages 1113-1156, September.
    4. Ben S. Bernanke & Mark Gertler, 1995. "Inside the Black Box: The Credit Channel of Monetary Policy Transmission," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 9(4), pages 27-48, Fall.
    5. Corvoisier, Sandrine & Gropp, Reint, 2002. "Bank concentration and retail interest rates," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(11), pages 2155-2189, November.
    6. R. Glenn Hubbard, 1994. "Is There a `Credit Channel' for Monetary Policy?," NBER Working Papers 4977, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Allen, Linda, 1988. "The Determinants of Bank Interest Margins: A Note," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 23(2), pages 231-235, June.
    8. Rotemberg, Julio J & Saloner, Garth, 1986. "A Supergame-Theoretic Model of Price Wars during Booms," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(3), pages 390-407, June.
    9. Koop, Gary & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Potter, Simon M., 1996. "Impulse response analysis in nonlinear multivariate models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 119-147, September.
    10. Brock, Philip L. & Rojas Suarez, Liliana, 2000. "Understanding the behavior of bank spreads in Latin America," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 113-134, October.
    11. Johann Burgstaller, 2006. "The cyclicality of interest rate spreads in Austria: Evidence for a financial decelerator?," Economics working papers 2006-02, Department of Economics, Johannes Kepler University Linz, Austria.
    12. Pesaran, H. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 1998. "Generalized impulse response analysis in linear multivariate models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 17-29, January.
    13. Sander, Harald & Kleimeier, Stefanie, 2004. "Convergence in euro-zone retail banking? What interest rate pass-through tells us about monetary policy transmission, competition and integration," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 461-492, April.
    14. R. Glenn Hubbard, 1995. "Is there a \"credit channel\" for monetary policy?," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue May, pages 63-77.
    15. Harry Bloch & Michael Olive, 2001. "Pricing over the Cycle," Review of Industrial Organization, Springer;The Industrial Organization Society, vol. 19(1), pages 99-108, August.
    16. Angbazo, Lazarus, 1997. "Commercial bank net interest margins, default risk, interest-rate risk, and off-balance sheet banking," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 55-87, January.
    17. Levine, Ross, 2005. "Finance and Growth: Theory and Evidence," Handbook of Economic Growth, in: Philippe Aghion & Steven Durlauf (ed.), Handbook of Economic Growth, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 12, pages 865-934, Elsevier.
    18. Michael J. Dueker & Daniel L. Thornton, 1997. "Do bank loan rates exhibit a countercyclical mark-up?," Working Papers 1997-004, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    19. Richard A. Ashley & Randal J. Verbrugge, 2009. "To difference or not to difference: a Monte Carlo investigation of inference in vector autoregression models," International Journal of Data Analysis Techniques and Strategies, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 1(3), pages 242-274.
    20. Benedikt Braumann, 2004. "Tu Felix Austria: Evidence for a de-celerator in financial reform," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 1(1), pages 53-72, March.
    21. Maudos, Joaquin & Fernandez de Guevara, Juan, 2004. "Factors explaining the interest margin in the banking sectors of the European Union," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(9), pages 2259-2281, September.
    22. Goddard, John & Molyneux, Phil & Wilson, John O S, 2004. "Dynamics of Growth and Profitability in Banking," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 36(6), pages 1069-1090, December.
    23. Saunders, Anthony & Schumacher, Liliana, 2000. "The determinants of bank interest rate margins: an international study," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(6), pages 813-832, December.
    24. Drakos, Kostas, 2003. "Assessing the success of reform in transition banking 10 years later: an interest margins analysis," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 309-317, April.
    25. Mody, Ashoka & Taylor, Mark P., 2004. "Financial predictors of real activity and the financial accelerator," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 82(2), pages 167-172, February.
    26. E. W. Chirwa, 2003. "Determinants of commercial banks' profitability in Malawi: a cointegration approach," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(8), pages 565-571.
    27. Bikker, Jacob A. & Haaf, Katharina, 2002. "Competition, concentration and their relationship: An empirical analysis of the banking industry," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(11), pages 2191-2214, November.
    28. Ho, Thomas S. Y. & Saunders, Anthony, 1981. "The Determinants of Bank Interest Margins: Theory and Empirical Evidence," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 16(4), pages 581-600, November.
    29. Angelini, Paolo & Cetorelli, Nicola, 2003. "The Effects of Regulatory Reform on Competition in the Banking Industry," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 35(5), pages 663-684, October.
    30. Xavier Freixas & Jean-Charles Rochet, 1997. "Microeconomics of Banking," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262061937, December.
    31. Walter Waschiczek, 2005. "The Impact of EU Accession on Austria's Financial Structure," Monetary Policy & the Economy, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 2, pages 117-129.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Johann Burgstaller, 2006. "The cyclicality of interest rate spreads in Austria: Evidence for a financial decelerator?," Economics working papers 2006-02, Department of Economics, Johannes Kepler University Linz, Austria.
    2. Goddard, John & Molyneux, Philip & Wilson, John O.S. & Tavakoli, Manouche, 2007. "European banking: An overview," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(7), pages 1911-1935, July.
    3. Nguyen, Thach V.H. & Nguyen, Thai Vu Hong, 2022. "How do banks price liquidity? The role of market power," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 53(C).
    4. Gabriele Angori & David Aristei & Manuela Gallo, 2019. "Determinants of Banks’ Net Interest Margin: Evidence from the Euro Area during the Crisis and Post-Crisis Period," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(14), pages 1-20, July.
    5. Putkuri, Hanna, 2010. "Housing loan rate margins in Finland," Research Discussion Papers 10/2010, Bank of Finland.
    6. Birchwood, Anthony & Brei, Michael & Noel, Dorian M., 2017. "Interest margins and bank regulation in Central America and the Caribbean," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 56-68.
    7. Dairo Estrada & Esteban Gómez & Inés Orozco, 2006. "Determinants of Interest Margins in Colombia," Borradores de Economia 2335, Banco de la Republica.
    8. Putkuri, Hanna, 2010. "Housing loan rate margins in Finland," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 10/2010, Bank of Finland.
    9. Maudos, Joaquin & Fernandez de Guevara, Juan, 2004. "Factors explaining the interest margin in the banking sectors of the European Union," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(9), pages 2259-2281, September.
    10. Kasman, Adnan & Tunc, Gokce & Vardar, Gulin & Okan, Berna, 2010. "Consolidation and commercial bank net interest margins: Evidence from the old and new European Union members and candidate countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 648-655, May.
    11. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2010_010 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Johann Burgstaller, 2006. "Financial predictors of real activity and the propagation of aggregate shocks," Economics working papers 2006-16, Department of Economics, Johannes Kepler University Linz, Austria.
    13. Chen, Sheng-Hung & Liao, Chien-Chang, 2011. "Are foreign banks more profitable than domestic banks? Home- and host-country effects of banking market structure, governance, and supervision," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 819-839, April.
    14. Sun, Poi Hun & Mohamad, Shamsher & Ariff, M., 2017. "Determinants driving bank performance: A comparison of two types of banks in the OIC," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 193-203.
    15. Raymond F. D. D. Chaudron & Leo Haan & Marco Hoeberichts, 2023. "Banks’ Net Interest Income from Maturity Transformation and Other Interest Income: Communicating Vessels?," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 63(1), pages 35-62, February.
    16. Raja Almarzoqi & Sami Ben Naceur, 2015. "Determinants of Bank Interest Margins in the Caucasus and Central Asia," IMF Working Papers 2015/087, International Monetary Fund.
    17. David Liebeg & Markus Schwaiger, 2007. "Determinants of Bank Interest Margins in Central and Eastern Europe," Financial Stability Report, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 14, pages 68-84.
    18. Dimitrios P. Louzis & Angelos T. Vouldis, 2015. "Profitability in the Greek Banking System: a Dual Investigation of Net Interest and Non-Interest Income," Working Papers 191, Bank of Greece.
    19. Bismark Addai & Wenjin Tang & Adjei Gyamfi Gyimah & Kingsley Opoku Appiah, 2023. "Bank intermediation margins in transition banking domains: panel evidence from Africa," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 56(4), pages 2129-2167, August.
    20. Maria-Eleni K. Agoraki & Georgios P. Kouretas, 2019. "The determinants of net interest margin during transition," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 53(4), pages 1005-1029, November.
    21. Poghosyan, Tigran, 2010. "Re-examining the impact of foreign bank participation on interest margins in emerging markets," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 11(4), pages 390-403, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bank interest margins; business cycles; financial accelerator; impulse response analysis;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:jku:econwp:2006_11. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: René Böheim (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vlinzat.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.