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Do bank loan rates exhibit a countercyclical mark-up?

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  • Michael J. Dueker
  • Daniel L. Thornton

Abstract

Based on a switching-cost model, we examine empirically the hypotheses that bank loan mark-ups are countercyclical and asymmetric in their responsiveness to recessionary and expansionary impulses. The first econometric model treats changes in the mark-up as a continuous variable. The second treats them as an ordered categorical variable due to the discrete nature of prime rate changes. By allowing the variance to switch over time as a Markov process, we present the first conditionally heteroskedastic discrete choice (ordered probit) model for time-series applications. This feature yields a remarkable improvement in the likelihood function. Specifications that do not account for conditional heteroskedasticity find evidence of both countercyclical and asymmetric mark-up behavior. In contrast, the heteroskedastic ordered probit finds the mark-up to be countercyclical but not significantly asymmetric. We explain why controlling for conditional heteroskedasticity may be important when testing for downward stickiness in loan rates.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael J. Dueker & Daniel L. Thornton, 1997. "Do bank loan rates exhibit a countercyclical mark-up?," Working Papers 1997-004, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedlwp:1997-004
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Paul Klemperer, 1995. "Competition when Consumers have Switching Costs: An Overview with Applications to Industrial Organization, Macroeconomics, and International Trade," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 62(4), pages 515-539.
    2. Richard J. Gilbert & Paul Klemperer, 2000. "An Equilibrium Theory of Rationing," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 31(1), pages 1-21, Spring.
    3. Hamilton, James D., 1990. "Analysis of time series subject to changes in regime," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1-2), pages 39-70.
    4. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
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    Cited by:

    1. Olivero, María Pía, 2010. "Market power in banking, countercyclical margins and the international transmission of business cycles," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(2), pages 292-301, March.
    2. Johann Burgstaller, 2006. "Financial predictors of real activity and the propagation of aggregate shocks," Economics working papers 2006-16, Department of Economics, Johannes Kepler University Linz, Austria.
    3. Shah Hussein & Amna Saeed & Amer Hassan, 2011. "The Financial Accelerator: An Emerging Market Story," Working Papers id:4551, eSocialSciences.
    4. Vincenzo Cuciniello & Federico M. Signoretti, 2015. "Large Banks, Loan Rate Markup, and Monetary Policy," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 11(3), pages 141-177, June.
    5. Johann Burgstaller, 2006. "Bank income and profits over the business and interest rate cycle," Economics working papers 2006-11, Department of Economics, Johannes Kepler University Linz, Austria.
    6. Ravn, Søren Hove, 2016. "Endogenous credit standards and aggregate fluctuations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 89-111.
    7. Abdelaziz Rouabah, 2006. "La sensibilité de l'activité bancaire aux chocs macroéconomiques : une analyse en panel sur des données de banques luxembourgeoises," BCL working papers 21, Central Bank of Luxembourg.
    8. Johann Burgstaller, 2006. "The cyclicality of interest rate spreads in Austria: Evidence for a financial decelerator?," Economics working papers 2006-02, Department of Economics, Johannes Kepler University Linz, Austria.
    9. Kévin Beaubrun-Diant & Fabien Tripier, 2009. "The Credit Spread Cycle with Matching Friction," Working Papers hal-00430809, HAL.
    10. Rossi, Lorenza, 2019. "The overshooting of firms’ destruction, banks and productivity shocks," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 136-155.

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    Keywords

    Bank loans; Interest rates;

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