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Dealing with an error correction model when trade balances are trend-stationary

Author

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  • Manuel Cantavella-Jordá

    (Department of Economics and Instituto de Economía Internacional, Universitat Jaume I, Castellón, Spain)

Abstract

The present research shows how one can deal with stationary plus trend trade balance variables in a trade model where the rest of the variables contain a unit root. Data are used in a monthly and a quarterly basis from January 1980 to June 2011 and applied to four countries (Germany, France, Italy and United Kingdom). It is proved that an error correction mechanism suits better in terms of both econometrics and economics when detrending trade balances once they have been verified to have a deterministic trend.

Suggested Citation

  • Manuel Cantavella-Jordá, 2014. "Dealing with an error correction model when trade balances are trend-stationary," Working Papers 2014/04, Economics Department, Universitat Jaume I, Castellón (Spain).
    • Handle: RePEc:jau:wpaper:2014/04
    as

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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-1072, June.
    2. Morris Goldstein & Mohsin S. Khan, 2017. "Income and Price Effects in Foreign Trade," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: TRADE CURRENCIES AND FINANCE, chapter 1, pages 3-81, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    3. Hausman, Jerry, 2015. "Specification tests in econometrics," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 38(2), pages 112-134.
    4. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Trade model; difference stationary process; trend stationary process; error correction mechanism;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • F10 - International Economics - - Trade - - - General
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

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