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Calling the Greek Referendum on the Nose with Google Trends

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  • Askitas, Nikos

    (IZA)

Abstract

In a bold and risky political move the Greek prime minister Alexis Tsipras called for a referendum on June 27 2015 quitting ongoing negotiations with Greece's creditors in Brussels. The referendum framed as a yes or no question asked the Greek voters to decide whether or not they approve or reject the latest take-it-or-leave-it proposal for "program continuation" by Greece's creditors. What followed was a chaotic week leading to the referendum with intense campaigning by the two camps. Due to tense debates and increasing polarisation it became increasingly impossible to rely on traditional polling. Even the first exit polls (performed by phone on Sunday evening) could only see a marginal lead for one or the other vote at different times. Quite possibly people were jumping party lines and were unwilling to reveal their preferences. Using Google Trends I could tap into voters' true and unbiased revealed preferences and nowcast hourly what the ratio of the No vote to the Yes vote is and called an over 60% No vote well ahead of the closing of the voting urns. In this paper I document this nowcasting exercise.

Suggested Citation

  • Askitas, Nikos, 2015. "Calling the Greek Referendum on the Nose with Google Trends," IZA Discussion Papers 9569, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    • Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp9569
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Nikolaos Askitas & Klaus F. Zimmermann, 2015. "Health and well-being in the great recession," International Journal of Manpower, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 36(1), pages 26-47, April.
    2. Askitas, Nikos & Zimmermann, Klaus F., 2011. "Health and Well-Being in the Crisis," IZA Discussion Papers 5601, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
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    Cited by:

    1. Gutiérrez, Antonio, 2023. "La brecha de género en el emprendimiento y la cultura emprendedora: Evidencia con Google Trends [Entrepreneurship gender gap and entrepreneurial culture: Evidence from Google Trends]," MPRA Paper 115876, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Askitas, Nikos, 2015. "Trend-Spotting in the Housing Market," IZA Discussion Papers 9427, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    3. Siliverstovs, Boriss & Wochner, Daniel S., 2018. "Google Trends and reality: Do the proportions match?," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 145(C), pages 1-23.
    4. Fabo, B., 2017. "Towards an understanding of job matching using web data," Other publications TiSEM b8b877f2-ae6a-495f-b6cc-9, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    5. Francisco Vergara-Perucich, 2022. "Assessing the Accuracy of Google Trends for Predicting Presidential Elections: The Case of Chile, 2006–2021," Data, MDPI, vol. 7(11), pages 1-12, October.
    6. Askitas, Nikos & Martinez, Anoop Bindra & Cereda, Fabio Saia, 2024. "The IZA / Fable Swipe Consumption Index," IZA Discussion Papers 17311, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    7. Gutiérrez, Antonio, 2022. "Movilidad urbana y datos de alta frecuencia [Urban mobility and high frequency data]," MPRA Paper 114854, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    nowcasting; Greek Referendum; greferendum; exit polls; complexity; behaviour; data science; computational social science; complex systems;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • G34 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Mergers; Acquisitions; Restructuring; Corporate Governance

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