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Equilibrium Health Spending and Population Aging in a Model of Endogenous Growth: Will the GDP Share of Health Spending Keep Rising?

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  • Ehrlich, Isaac

    (University at Buffalo, SUNY)

  • Yin, Yong

    (University at Buffalo, SUNY)

Abstract

The apparently unrelenting growth in the GDP-share of health spending (SHS) has been a perennial issue of policy concern. Does an equilibrium limit exist? The issue has been left open in recent dynamic models which take income growth and population aging as given. We view these variables as endogenously determined within an overlapping-generations, human-capital-based endogenous-growth model, where a representative parent makes all life-cycle consumption and investment decisions, and life and health protection are subject to diminishing returns. Our prototype model, allowing for both quantity and quality of life as desired goods, yields equilibrium upper bounds for SHS. Our calibrated simulations also account for observed trends in reproductive choices, population aging, life expectancy, and economic growth. The analysis offers new insights about factors that drive long-term trends in aging and health spending and establishes a direct relation between health investments at young age and the equilibrium, steady-state rate of economic growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Ehrlich, Isaac & Yin, Yong, 2014. "Equilibrium Health Spending and Population Aging in a Model of Endogenous Growth: Will the GDP Share of Health Spending Keep Rising?," IZA Discussion Papers 7928, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    • Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp7928
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Casper Worm Hansen, 2013. "Health and Development: A Neoclassical Perspective," Journal of Human Capital, University of Chicago Press, vol. 7(3), pages 274-295.
    2. Isaac Ehrlich & Yong Yin, 2005. "Explaining Diversities in Age-Specific Life Expectancies and Values of Life Saving: A Numerical Analysis," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 31(2), pages 129-162, September.
    3. Isaac Ehrlich, 2009. "The Mystery of Human Capital as Engine of Growth, or Why the US Became the Economic Superpower in the 20th Century," Ensayos Económicos, Central Bank of Argentina, Economic Research Department, vol. 1(56), pages 41-93, October -.
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    5. Hoyt Bleakley, 2007. "Disease and Development: Evidence from Hookworm Eradication in the American South," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 122(1), pages 73-117.
    6. Ehrlich, Isaac & Kim, Jinyoung, 2005. "Endogenous fertility, mortality and economic growth: Can a Malthusian framework account for the conflicting historical trends in population?," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(5), pages 789-806, October.
    7. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1988. "On the mechanics of economic development," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 3-42, July.
    8. Ehrlich, Isaac & Lui, Francis T, 1991. "Intergenerational Trade, Longevity, and Economic Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(5), pages 1029-1059, October.
    9. Juster, F Thomas & Stafford, Frank P, 1991. "The Allocation of Time: Empirical Findings, Behavioral Models, and Problems of Measurement," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 29(2), pages 471-522, June.
    10. Jonathan Gruber, 2006. "A Tax-Based Estimate of the Elasticity of Intertemporal Substitution," NBER Working Papers 11945, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Isaac Ehrlich & Jinyoung Kim, 2007. "Social Security and Demographic Trends: Theory and Evidence from the International Experience," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 10(1), pages 55-77, January.
    12. Isaac Ehrlich & Jinyoung Kim, 2005. "Social Security, Demographic Trends, and Economic Growth: Theory and Evidence from the International Experience," NBER Working Papers 11121, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Michael R. Haines, 1994. "Estimated Life Tables for the United States, 1850-1900," NBER Historical Working Papers 0059, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Adrienne M. Lucas, 2010. "Malaria Eradication and Educational Attainment: Evidence from Paraguay and Sri Lanka," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 2(2), pages 46-71, April.
    15. Ehrlich, Isaac, 2000. "Uncertain lifetime, life protection, and the value of life saving," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 341-367, May.
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    Cited by:

    1. Rodrigo R. Soares & Rudi Rocha & Michel Szklo, 2021. "American Delusion: Life Expectancy and Welfare in the US from an International Perspective," Working Papers 13, Instituto de Estudos para Políticas de Saúde.
    2. Kai Hong & Peter A. Savelyev & Kegon T. K. Tan, 2020. "Understanding the Mechanisms Linking College Education with Longevity," Journal of Human Capital, University of Chicago Press, vol. 14(3), pages 371-400.
    3. Cheng Chen & Shin-Yi Chou & Robert J. Thornton, 2015. "The Effect of Household Technology on Weight and Health Outcomes among Chinese Adults: Evidence from China's "Home Appliances Going to the Countryside" Policy," Journal of Human Capital, University of Chicago Press, vol. 9(3), pages 364-401.
    4. Isaac Ehrlich & Yun Pei, 2020. "Human Capital as Engine of Growth: The Role of Knowledge Transfers in Promoting Balanced Growth within and across Countries," Asian Development Review, MIT Press, vol. 37(2), pages 225-263, September.
    5. Ehrlich, Isaac & Yin, Yong, 2018. "The problem of the uninsured," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(1), pages 147-168.
    6. Frank R. Lichtenberg, 2014. "The Impact of Pharmaceutical Innovation on Disability Days and the Use of Medical Services in the United States, 1997-2010," Journal of Human Capital, University of Chicago Press, vol. 8(4), pages 432-480.
    7. Xin Cao & Peng Li & Shi Li & Heng Zhang & Mengni Qin, 2022. "The Belt and Road Initiative, Public Health Expenditure and Economic Growth: Evidence from Quasi-Natural Experiments," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(23), pages 1-18, December.
    8. Alberto Bucci, 2015. "Product Proliferation, Population, and Economic Growth," Journal of Human Capital, University of Chicago Press, vol. 9(2), pages 170-197.
    9. Frederik H. Bennhoff & Jorge Luis García & Duncan Ermini Leaf, 2024. "The Dynastic Benefits of Early-Childhood Education: Participant Benefits and Family Spillovers," Journal of Human Capital, University of Chicago Press, vol. 18(1), pages 44-73.
    10. Andreas Schick & Richard H. Steckel, 2015. "Height, Human Capital, and Earnings: The Contributions of Cognitive and Noncognitive Ability," Journal of Human Capital, University of Chicago Press, vol. 9(1), pages 94-115.
    11. Mercedes Gumbau Albert, 2021. "The impact of health status and human capital formation on regional performance: Empirical evidence," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 100(1), pages 123-139, February.
    12. Anne Mason & Idaira Rodriguez Santana & María José Aragón & Nigel Rice & Martin Chalkley & Raphael Wittenberg & Jose-Luis Fernandez, 2019. "Drivers of health care expenditure: Final report," Working Papers 169cherp, Centre for Health Economics, University of York.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    life expectancy; endogenous growth; population aging; human capital; health spending; life protection;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • I1 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health
    • I15 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health and Economic Development
    • O4 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity

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