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The Case for Releasing the Young from Lockdown: A Briefing Paper for Policymakers

Author

Listed:
  • Oswald, Andrew J.

    (University of Warwick)

  • Powdthavee, Nattavudh

    (Nanyang Technological University, Singapore)

Abstract

The UK is 'locked down' because of coronavirus (COVID-19). No clear exit strategy currently exists. This paper suggests a possible way forward that combines elements from economics and epidemiology. The paper proposes as a policy a 'release' from lockdown of the young cohort of UK citizens aged between age 20 and 30 who do not live with parents. The paper calculates that there are approximately 4.2 million UK individuals who fall into this 20-30 ageband and who live outside the original parental home. Of those, 2.6 million work in the private sector, so unless some corrective action is taken they are likely to be extremely harshly affected, financially, when compared to employees in the public sector. The paper argues that a young-workforce release of this kind would lead to substantial economic and societal benefits without enormous health costs to the country. In this way, the nation might begin to move forward in the footsteps of the young. The paper's key concept could in principle be implemented in other countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Oswald, Andrew J. & Powdthavee, Nattavudh, 2020. "The Case for Releasing the Young from Lockdown: A Briefing Paper for Policymakers," IZA Discussion Papers 13113, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    • Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp13113
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Dan Anderberg & Helmut Rainer & Jonathan Wadsworth & Tanya Wilson, 2016. "Unemployment and Domestic Violence: Theory and Evidence," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 126(597), pages 1947-1979, November.
    2. Dan Anderberg & Helmut Rainer & Jonathan Wadsworth & Tanya Wilson, 2016. "Unemployment and Domestic Violence: Theory and Evidence," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 126(597), pages 1947-1979, November.
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    Cited by:

    1. Layard, Richard & Clark, Andrew E. & De Neve, Jan-Emmanuel & Krekel, Christian & Fancourt, Daisy & Hey, Nancy & O'Donnell, Gus, 2020. "When to release the lockdown: a wellbeing framework for analysing costs and benefits," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 104276, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    2. Brodeur, Abel & Clark, Andrew E. & Fleche, Sarah & Powdthavee, Nattavudh, 2021. "COVID-19, lockdowns and well-being: Evidence from Google Trends," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 193(C).
    3. Abel Brodeur & David Gray & Anik Islam & Suraiya Bhuiyan, 2021. "A literature review of the economics of COVID‐19," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(4), pages 1007-1044, September.
    4. Van Rens, Thijs & Oswald, Andrew J., 2020. "Age-Based Policy in the Context of the Covid-19 Pandemic," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 1315, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
    5. Robalino, David A., 2020. "The COVID-19 Conundrum in the Developing World: Protecting Lives or Protecting Jobs?," IZA Discussion Papers 13136, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    6. Brian Williamson, 2020. "Beyond COVID‐19 lockdown: A Coasean approach with optionality," Economic Affairs, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(2), pages 155-161, June.
    7. Gigi Foster & Paul Frijters, 2024. "Hiding the elephant: The tragedy of COVID policy and its economist apologists," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 63(1), pages 106-144, March.
    8. Yamamura, Eiji & Tsutsui, Yoshiro, 2022. "How does the impact of the COVID-19 state of emergency change? An analysis of preventive behaviors and mental health using panel data in Japan," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    9. Béland, Louis-Philippe & Brodeur, Abel & Wright, Taylor, 2020. "The Short-Term Economic Consequences of COVID-19: Exposure to Disease, Remote Work and Government Response," GLO Discussion Paper Series 524, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    10. Brodeur, Abel & Cook, Nikolai & Wright, Taylor, 2021. "On the effects of COVID-19 safer-at-home policies on social distancing, car crashes and pollution," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 106(C).
    11. Yoshiro Tsutsui & Shosh Shahrabani & Eiji Yamamura & Ryohei Hayashi & Youki Kohsaka & Fumio Ohtake, 2021. "The Willingness to Pay for a Hypothetical Vaccine for the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19)," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(23), pages 1-16, November.
    12. Crowley, Frank & Doran, Justin & Ryan, Geraldine, 2020. "The impact of Covid-19 restrictions on workers: Who is most exposed?," SRERC Working Paper Series SRERCWP2020-3, University College Cork (UCC), Spatial and Regional Economic Research Centre (SRERC).
    13. Gus O'Donnell & Harry Begg, 2020. "Far from Well: The UK since COVID‐19, and Learning to Follow the Science(s)," Fiscal Studies, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 41(4), pages 761-804, December.
    14. Oswald, Andrew J. & Powdthavee, Nattavudh, 2020. "Age, Death Risk, and the Design of an Exit Strategy: A Guide for Policymakers and for Citizens Who Want to Stay Alive," IZA Discussion Papers 13221, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    15. Eiji Yamamura. & Yoshiro Tsutsui, 2020. "Impact of the State of Emergency Declaration for COVID-19 on Preventive Behaviors and Mental Conditions in Japan: Difference in Difference Analysis using Panel Data," Papers 2005.13008, arXiv.org.
    16. Layard, Richard & Clark, Andrew E. & De Neve, Jan-Emmanuel & Krekel, Christian & Fancourt, Daisy & Hey, Nancy & O'Donnell, Gus, 2020. "When to release the lockdown: a wellbeing framework for analysing costs and benefits," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 104276, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    17. Van Rens, Thijs & Oswald, Andrew J., 2020. "Age-Based Policy in the Context of the Covid-19 Pandemic: How Common are MultiGenerational Households?," CAGE Online Working Paper Series 522, Competitive Advantage in the Global Economy (CAGE).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    coronavirus; labor market; recession; COVID-19;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health

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    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

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