IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ira/wpaper/202204.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

"Currency and commodity return relationship under extreme geopolitical risks: Evidence from the invasion of Ukraine"

Author

Listed:
  • Olga Dodd

    (Finance Department, Faculty of Business Economics and Law, Auckland University of Technology, New Zealand.)

  • Adrian Fernandez-Perez

    (Finance Department, Faculty of Business Economics and Law, Auckland University of Technology, New Zealand.)

  • Simon Sosvilla-Rivero

    (Complutense Institute for International Studies, Universidad Complutense de Madrid. 28223 Madrid, Spain.)

Abstract

We examine the relationship between currency and commodity returns around the invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. We find that the expected positive contemporaneous relationship between currency and commodity returns reverses and becomes negative during this period of extreme geopolitical risks. In addition to commodity returns, currency returns around the invasion of Ukraine are significantly affected by geopolitical factors, particularly geographic distance to the war. Our results indicate that a war between two major commodity-exporting countries significantly affects global currency pricing.

Suggested Citation

  • Olga Dodd & Adrian Fernandez-Perez & Simon Sosvilla-Rivero, 2022. ""Currency and commodity return relationship under extreme geopolitical risks: Evidence from the invasion of Ukraine"," IREA Working Papers 202204, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised Apr 2022.
    • Handle: RePEc:ira:wpaper:202204
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.ub.edu/irea/working_papers/2022/202204.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Joëts, Marc & Mignon, Valérie & Razafindrabe, Tovonony, 2017. "Does the volatility of commodity prices reflect macroeconomic uncertainty?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 313-326.
    2. Liu, Li & Tan, Siming & Wang, Yudong, 2020. "Can commodity prices forecast exchange rates?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    3. Zhang, Hui Jun & Dufour, Jean-Marie & Galbraith, John W., 2016. "Exchange rates and commodity prices: Measuring causality at multiple horizons," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 100-120.
    4. Filippou, Ilias & Gozluklu, Arie E. & Taylor, Mark P., 2018. "Global Political Risk and Currency Momentum," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 53(5), pages 2227-2259, October.
    5. Filippo Natoli, 2021. "Financialization Of Commodities Before And After The Great Financial Crisis," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(2), pages 488-511, April.
    6. John Hua Fan & Adrian Fernandez‐Perez & Ana‐Maria Fuertes & Joëlle Miffre, 2020. "Speculative pressure," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(4), pages 575-597, April.
    7. Lahmiri, Salim, 2017. "Cointegration and causal linkages in fertilizer markets across different regimes," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 471(C), pages 181-189.
    8. Joëts, Marc & Mignon, Valérie & Razafindrabe, Tovonony, 2017. "Does the volatility of commodity prices reflect macroeconomic uncertainty?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 313-326.
    9. Qin, Yun & Hong, Kairong & Chen, Jinyu & Zhang, Zitao, 2020. "Asymmetric effects of geopolitical risks on energy returns and volatility under different market conditions," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. António Miguel Martins, 2024. "Short‐term market impact of Black Sea Grain Initiative on four grain markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 44(4), pages 619-630, April.
    2. Florin Aliu & Jiří Kučera & Simona Hašková, 2023. "Agricultural Commodities in the Context of the Russia-Ukraine War: Evidence from Corn, Wheat, Barley, and Sunflower Oil," Forecasting, MDPI, vol. 5(1), pages 1-23, March.
    3. Raza, Syed Ali & Guesmi, Khaled & Benkraiem, Ramzi & Anwar, Rija, 2024. "Precious metals and currency markets during the Russia-Ukraine conflict’s inflationary periods," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(PA).
    4. Martins, António Miguel & Correia, Pedro & Gouveia, Ricardo, 2023. "Russia-Ukraine conflict: The effect on European banks’ stock market returns," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Makkonen, Adam & Vallström, Daniel & Uddin, Gazi Salah & Rahman, Md Lutfur & Haddad, Michel Ferreira Cardia, 2021. "The effect of temperature anomaly and macroeconomic fundamentals on agricultural commodity futures returns," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
    2. Bouri, Elie & Lucey, Brian & Saeed, Tareq & Vo, Xuan Vinh, 2021. "The realized volatility of commodity futures: Interconnectedness and determinants#," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 139-151.
    3. Dudda, Tom L. & Klein, Tony & Nguyen, Duc Khuong & Walther, Thomas, 2022. "Common Drivers of Commodity Futures?," QBS Working Paper Series 2022/05, Queen's University Belfast, Queen's Business School.
    4. Zhou, Liyun & Huang, Jialiang, 2020. "Contagion of future-level sentiment in Chinese Agricultural Futures Markets," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
    5. Gilles Dufrénot & William Ginn & Marc Pourroy, 2023. "ENSO Climate Patterns on Global Economic Conditions," AMSE Working Papers 2308, Aix-Marseille School of Economics, France.
    6. Fatemeh Salimi Namin, 2020. "Exchange Rates, Stock Prices, and Stock Market Uncertainty," AMSE Working Papers 2037, Aix-Marseille School of Economics, France.
    7. Ren, Yinghua & Tan, Anqi & Zhu, Huiming & Zhao, Wanru, 2022. "Does economic policy uncertainty drive nonlinear risk spillover in the commodity futures market?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    8. Liu, Yang & Han, Liyan & Xu, Yang, 2021. "The impact of geopolitical uncertainty on energy volatility," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    9. Junguo Hua & Hui Li & Zejun He & Jing Ding & Futong Jin, 2022. "The Microcosmic Mechanism and Empirical Test of Uncertainty on the Non-Linear Fluctuation of Chinese Grain Prices-Based on the Perspective of Global Economic Policy Uncertainty," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 12(10), pages 1-17, September.
    10. Morelli, Giacomo, 2023. "Stochastic ordering of systemic risk in commodity markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).
    11. Rubaszek Michal & Karolak Zuzanna & Kwas Marek & Uddin Gazi Salah, 2020. "The role of the threshold effect for the dynamics of futures and spot prices of energy commodities," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 24(5), pages 1-20, December.
    12. Rubaszek, Michał & Karolak, Zuzanna & Kwas, Marek, 2020. "Mean-reversion, non-linearities and the dynamics of industrial metal prices. A forecasting perspective," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    13. Nguyen, Bao H. & Okimoto, Tatsuyoshi & Tran, Trung Duc, 2022. "Uncertainty-dependent and sign-dependent effects of oil market shocks," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 26(C).
    14. Scarcioffolo, Alexandre R. & Etienne, Xiaoli L., 2021. "Regime-switching energy price volatility: The role of economic policy uncertainty," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 336-356.
    15. Awasthi, Kritika & Ahmad, Wasim & Rahman, Abdul & Phani, B.V., 2020. "When US sneezes, clichés spread: How do the commodity index funds react then?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    16. Athanasios Triantafyllou & Dimitrios Bakas & Marilou Ioakimidis, 2023. "Commodity price uncertainty as a leading indicator of economic activity," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(4), pages 4194-4219, October.
    17. Hedi Ben Haddad & Imed Mezghani & Abdessalem Gouider, 2021. "The Dynamic Spillover Effects of Macroeconomic and Financial Uncertainty on Commodity Markets Uncertainties," Economies, MDPI, vol. 9(2), pages 1-22, June.
    18. Zhang, Yongmin & Ding, Shusheng & Scheffel, Eric M., 2019. "A key determinant of commodity price Co-movement: The role of daily market liquidity," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 170-180.
    19. Cunado, Juncal & Gil-Alana, Luis A. & Gupta, Rangan, 2019. "Persistence in trends and cycles of gold and silver prices: Evidence from historical data," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 514(C), pages 345-354.
    20. Wang, Lu & Wu, Jiangbin & Cao, Yang & Hong, Yanran, 2022. "Forecasting renewable energy stock volatility using short and long-term Markov switching GARCH-MIDAS models: Either, neither or both?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 111(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Foreign exchange rates; Currency return; Commodity return; Russian invasion; Ukraine war; Geographic distance. JEL classification: F31; F51; G13; G14.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ira:wpaper:202204. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Alicia García (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/feubaes.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.