Global Energy and Climate Outlook 2022: Energy trade in a decarbonised world

This edition of the Global Energy and Climate Outlook (GECO 2022) presents an updated view on the implications of energy and climate policies around the world. Current climate policy pledges and targets imply a rapid decline in greenhouse gas emissions, but there remains both an implementation gap in adopting policies aligned with countries’ mid-term Nationally Determined Contributions and Long-Term Strategies, and a collective ambition gap in reducing emissions to reach the Paris Agreement targets of limit global warming to well below 2°C and pursue efforts to 1.5°C. This report provides insight into the structural evolution of energy trade in a decarbonising world in the coming decades. With a greater share of energy produced domestically, the decarbonisation effort results increased energy self-sufficiency. We examine the role of hydrogen specifically: the share of hydrogen and of derived fuels in total global final energy consumption remain low by 2050 (7% and 5%, respectively). International hydrogen trade is limited (6-11% of hydrogen demand), with most trade taking place via pipeline from neighbouring regions. The trade of hydrogen-derived liquid fuels is more pronounced (up to 25% of these fuels' demand) and takes place over longer distances by ship. Embodied energy trade remains an important element in a decarbonised global economy, while shifting away from embodied fossil fuels towards embodied low-carbon electricity.