IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ipp/wpaper/1901.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Robotization and Welfare Scenarios

Author

Listed:
  • Luis Moreno

Abstract

This paper contributes to the ongoing discussion about the impact of robotization on welfare democracies. It advances conjectures on possible future scenarios following the examination of past trajectories. The context of analysis is that corresponding to welfare capitalism in the Western hemisphere. An historical examination of the three Ages of Welfare (Golden, 1945-75; Silver, 1976, 2017; and Bronze, 2008--?) provides the historical bases with the purpose of pondering prospective scenarios. Arguably, the structural economic overturn brought about by robotization and related technologies will challenge substantially the provision of social welfare as we have known it until now. Among the various shocks induced by industry 4.0, robotization they will have far-reaching implications for labour markets, employment and welfare arrangements. Neo-feudalism practices and the eventual implementation of minimum income schemes are identified as contrasting future trends.

Suggested Citation

  • Luis Moreno, 2019. "Robotization and Welfare Scenarios," Working Papers 1901, Instituto de Políticas y Bienes Públicos (IPP), CSIC.
    • Handle: RePEc:ipp:wpaper:1901
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://investigacion.cchs.csic.es/RePEc/ipp/wpaper/2019_01_ippwp_moreno-1.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Nicholas Bloom & Max Floetotto & Nir Jaimovich & Itay Saporta†Eksten & Stephen J. Terry, 2018. "Really Uncertain Business Cycles," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 86(3), pages 1031-1065, May.
    2. Maarten Goos & Alan Manning & Anna Salomons, 2014. "Explaining Job Polarization: Routine-Biased Technological Change and Offshoring," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(8), pages 2509-2526, August.
    3. David H. Autor & Frank Levy & Richard J. Murnane, 2003. "The Skill Content of Recent Technological Change: An Empirical Exploration," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 118(4), pages 1279-1333.
    4. Assar Lindbeck, 2006. "Sustainable social spending," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 13(4), pages 303-324, August.
    5. David H. Autor & David Dorn, 2013. "The Growth of Low-Skill Service Jobs and the Polarization of the US Labor Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(5), pages 1553-1597, August.
    6. Daron Acemoglu & Pascual Restrepo, 2020. "Robots and Jobs: Evidence from US Labor Markets," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 128(6), pages 2188-2244.
    7. Luis Ayala & Elena Bárcena-Martín, 2018. "A social welfare approach for measuring welfare protection," The Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer;Society for the Study of Economic Inequality, vol. 16(1), pages 41-59, March.
    8. Dauth, Wolfgang & Findeisen, Sebastian & Südekum, Jens & Wößner, Nicole, 2017. "German robots - the impact of industrial robots on workers," IAB-Discussion Paper 201730, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    9. Ferrera, Maurizio & Hemerijck, Anton & Rhodes, Martin, 2000. "Recasting European Welfare States for the 21st Century," European Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 8(3), pages 427-446, July.
    10. Südekum, Jens & Dauth, Wolfgang & Findeisen, Sebastian & Woessner, Nicole, 2017. "German Robots – The Impact of Industrial Robots on Workers," CEPR Discussion Papers 12306, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    11. Daron Acemoglu & Pascual Restrepo, 2017. "Robots and Jobs: Evidence from US Labor Markets," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series dp-297, Boston University - Department of Economics.
    12. Ortiz, Isabel, & Behrendt, Christina. & Acuña-Ulate, Andrés. & Nguyen, Quynh Anh., 2018. "Universal basic income proposals in light of ILO standards key issues and global costing," ILO Working Papers 995008692502676, International Labour Organization.
    13. Luis Moreno, 2016. "Post-crisis and the bronze age of welfare in Europe," Working Papers 1601, Instituto de Políticas y Bienes Públicos (IPP), CSIC.
    14. Stefano Sacchi & Dario Guarascio & Silvia Vannutelli, 2019. "Risk of technological unemployment and support for redistributive policies," Stato e mercato, Società editrice il Mulino, issue 1, pages 125-156.
    15. Stringham, Edward Peter, 2015. "Private Governance: Creating Order in Economic and Social Life," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199365166.
    16. Ljubica Nedelkoska & Glenda Quintini, 2018. "Automation, skills use and training," OECD Social, Employment and Migration Working Papers 202, OECD Publishing.
    17. Arntz, Melanie & Gregory, Terry & Zierahn, Ulrich, 2016. "ELS issues in robotics and steps to consider them. Part 1: Robotics and employment. Consequences of robotics and technological change for the structure and level of employment," ZEW Expertises, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research, number 146501.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Cirillo, Valeria & Evangelista, Rinaldo & Guarascio, Dario & Sostero, Matteo, 2021. "Digitalization, routineness and employment: An exploration on Italian task-based data," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 50(7).
    2. Jelena Reljic & Rinaldo Evangelista & Mario Pianta, 2019. "Digital technologies, employment and skills," LEM Papers Series 2019/36, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
    3. Lütkenhorst, Wilfried, 2018. "Creating wealth without labour? Emerging contours of a new techno-economic landscape," IDOS Discussion Papers 11/2018, German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS).
    4. Gregory, Terry & Salomons, Anna & Zierahn, Ulrich, 2016. "Racing With or Against the Machine? Evidence from Europe," VfS Annual Conference 2016 (Augsburg): Demographic Change 145843, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    5. Calì, Massimiliano & Presidente, Giorgio, 2021. "Robots For Economic Development," GLO Discussion Paper Series 942, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    6. Maarten Goos & Melanie Arntz & Ulrich Zierahn & Terry Gregory & Stephanie Carretero Gomez & Ignacio Gonzalez Vazquez & Koen Jonkers, 2019. "The Impact of Technological Innovation on the Future of Work," JRC Working Papers on Labour, Education and Technology 2019-03, Joint Research Centre.
    7. Caselli, Mauro & Fracasso, Andrea & Scicchitano, Sergio & Traverso, Silvio & Tundis, Enrico, 2021. "Stop worrying and love the robot: An activity-based approach to assess the impact of robotization on employment dynamics," GLO Discussion Paper Series 802, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    8. Pouliakas, Konstantinos, 2018. "Determinants of Automation Risk in the EU Labour Market: A Skills-Needs Approach," IZA Discussion Papers 11829, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    9. Janser, Markus, 2018. "The greening of jobs in Germany : First evidence from a text mining based index and employment register data," IAB-Discussion Paper 201814, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    10. Goos, Maarten & Rademakers, Emilie & Röttger, Ronja, 2021. "Routine-Biased technical change: Individual-Level evidence from a plant closure," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 50(7).
    11. Montobbio, Fabio & Staccioli, Jacopo & Virgillito, Maria Enrica & Vivarelli, Marco, 2022. "Robots and the origin of their labour-saving impact," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 174(C).
    12. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/7n49nkmngd8448a5ts5gt5ade0 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Arntz, Melanie & Gregory, Terry & Zierahn, Ulrich, 2019. "Digitalization and the Future of Work: Macroeconomic Consequences," IZA Discussion Papers 12428, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    14. Fossen, Frank M. & Sorgner, Alina, 2019. "New Digital Technologies and Heterogeneous Employment and Wage Dynamics in the United States: Evidence from Individual-Level Data," IZA Discussion Papers 12242, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    15. Genz Sabrina & Janser Markus & Lehmer Florian, 2019. "The Impact of Investments in New Digital Technologies on Wages – Worker-Level Evidence from Germany," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 239(3), pages 483-521, June.
    16. Barbieri, Laura & Mussida, Chiara & Piva, Mariacristina & Vivarelli, Marco, 2019. "Testing the employment and skill impact of new technologies: A survey and some methodological issues," MERIT Working Papers 2019-032, United Nations University - Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).
    17. Bachmann, Ronald & Stepanyan, Gayane, 2020. "It's a Woman's World? Occupational Structure and the Rise of Female Employment in Germany," VfS Annual Conference 2020 (Virtual Conference): Gender Economics 224626, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    18. Dengler, Katharina & Matthes, Britta, 2018. "The impacts of digital transformation on the labour market: Substitution potentials of occupations in Germany," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 137(C), pages 304-316.
    19. Philippe Aghion & Céline Antonin & Simon Bunel, 2019. "Artificial Intelligence, Growth and Employment: The Role of Policy," Economie et Statistique / Economics and Statistics, Institut National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques (INSEE), issue 510-511-5, pages 149-164.
    20. Chen, Yang & Cheng, Liang & Lee, Chien-Chiang, 2022. "How does the use of industrial robots affect the ecological footprint? International evidence," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 198(C).
    21. Gries, Thomas & Naude, Wim, 2018. "Artificial intelligence, jobs, inequality and productivity: Does aggregate demand matter?," MERIT Working Papers 2018-047, United Nations University - Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ipp:wpaper:1901. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Adelheid Holl (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ippcses.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.