IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/inf/wpaper/2021.01.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Do Financial Markets Reward Government Spending Efficiency?

Author

Listed:
  • Antonio Afonso

    (Universidade de Lisboa)

  • Joao Tovar Jalles

    (Universidade de Lisboa)

  • Ana Venancio

    (Universidade de Lisboa)

Abstract

We link governments’ spending efficiency scores, to sovereign debt assessments made by financial markets´, more specifically by three rating agencies (Standard & Poors, Moody´s and Fitch). Public efficiency scores are computed via data envelopment analysis. Then, we rely notably on ordered response models to estimate the response of sovereign ratings to changes in efficiency scores. Covering 34 OECD countries over the period 2007-2018, we find that increased public spending efficiency is rewarded by financial markets via higher sovereign debt ratings. In addition, higher inflation and government indebtedness lead to sovereign rating downgrades, while higher foreign reserves contribute to rating upgrades.

Suggested Citation

  • Antonio Afonso & Joao Tovar Jalles & Ana Venancio, 2021. "Do Financial Markets Reward Government Spending Efficiency?," Working Papers 2021.01, International Network for Economic Research - INFER.
    • Handle: RePEc:inf:wpaper:2021.01
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://infer-research.eu/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/WP2021.01.pdf
    File Function: First version, 2021
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Tanzi, Vito & Schuknecht, Ludger, 1997. "Reconsidering the Fiscal Role of Government: The International Perspective," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(2), pages 164-168, May.
    2. António Afonso & João Tovar Jalles & Ana Venâncio, 2021. "Taxation and Public Spending Efficiency: An International Comparison," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 63(3), pages 356-383, September.
    3. Kleibergen, Frank & Paap, Richard, 2006. "Generalized reduced rank tests using the singular value decomposition," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 133(1), pages 97-126, July.
    4. Antonis Adam & Manthos Delis & Pantelis Kammas, 2011. "Public sector efficiency: leveling the playing field between OECD countries," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 146(1), pages 163-183, January.
    5. Daron Acemoglu & Suresh Naidu & Pascual Restrepo & James A. Robinson, 2019. "Democracy Does Cause Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 127(1), pages 47-100.
    6. Dutu Richard & Sicari Patrizio, 2020. "Public Spending Efficiency in the OECD: Benchmarking Health Care, Education, and General Administration," Review of Economic Perspectives, Sciendo, vol. 20(3), pages 253-280, September.
    7. Huong Vu & Rasha Alsakka & Owain Gwilym, 2017. "What drives differences of opinion in sovereign ratings? The roles of information disclosure and political risk," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(3), pages 216-233, July.
    8. Antonio Fatás & Ilian Mihov, 2013. "Policy Volatility, Institutions, and Economic Growth," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 95(2), pages 362-376, May.
    9. Fatas, Antonio & Mihov, Ilian, 2001. "Government size and automatic stabilizers: international and intranational evidence," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(1), pages 3-28, October.
    10. Leandro Medina & Friedrich Schneider, 2019. "Shedding Light on the Shadow Economy: A Global Database and the Interaction with the Official One," CESifo Working Paper Series 7981, CESifo.
    11. Maria Alessandra Antonelli & Valeria De Bonis, 2019. "The efficiency of social public expenditure in European countries: a two-stage analysis," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 51(1), pages 47-60, January.
    12. Herrera,Santiago & Ouedraogo,Abdoulaye, 2018. "Efficiency of Public Spending in Education, Health, and Infrastructure : An International Benchmarking Exercise," Policy Research Working Paper Series 8586, The World Bank.
    13. Afonso, António & Furceri, Davide & Gomes, Pedro, 2012. "Sovereign credit ratings and financial markets linkages: Application to European data," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 606-638.
    14. Bissoondoyal-Bheenick, Emawtee, 2005. "An analysis of the determinants of sovereign ratings," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 251-280, February.
    15. World Bank, 2017. "World Development Indicators 2017," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 26447.
    16. António Afonso & Pedro Gomes & Philipp Rother, 2011. "Short‐ and long‐run determinants of sovereign debt credit ratings," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(1), pages 1-15, January.
    17. António Afonso & Mina Kazemi, 2017. "Assessing Public Spending Efficiency in 20 OECD Countries," Dynamic Modeling and Econometrics in Economics and Finance, in: Bettina Bökemeier & Alfred Greiner (ed.), Inequality and Finance in Macrodynamics, pages 7-42, Springer.
    18. Charnes, A. & Cooper, W. W. & Rhodes, E., 1978. "Measuring the efficiency of decision making units," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 2(6), pages 429-444, November.
    19. Schneider,Friedrich & Enste,Dominik H., 2016. "The Shadow Economy," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9781316600894, September.
    20. World Bank, 2006. "World Development Indicators 2006," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 8151.
    21. Austrian Institute of Economic Research, 2006. "Competitiveness Report 2006," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 28814, August.
    22. Antonio Afonso & Ludger Schuknecht & Vito Tanzi, 2010. "Public sector efficiency: evidence for new EU member states and emerging markets," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(17), pages 2147-2164.
    23. Hauner, David & Kyobe, Annette, 2010. "Determinants of Government Efficiency," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 38(11), pages 1527-1542, November.
    24. Hu, Yen-Ting & Kiesel, Rudiger & Perraudin, William, 2002. "The estimation of transition matrices for sovereign credit ratings," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(7), pages 1383-1406, July.
    25. Gupta, Sanjeev & Verhoeven, Marijn, 2001. "The efficiency of government expenditure: experiences from Africa," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 433-467, May.
    26. Marlene Amstad & Frank Packer, 2015. "Sovereign ratings of advanced and emerging economies after the crisis," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, December.
    27. Antonio Afonso, 2003. "Understanding the determinants of sovereign debt ratings: Evidence for the two leading agencies," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 27(1), pages 56-74, March.
    28. António Afonso & Ludger Schuknecht & Vito Tanzi, 2005. "Public sector efficiency: An international comparison," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 123(3), pages 321-347, June.
    29. Mora, Nada, 2006. "Sovereign credit ratings: Guilty beyond reasonable doubt?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(7), pages 2041-2062, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. António Afonso & José Alves, 2022. "Does government spending efficiency improve fiscal sustainability?," Working Papers REM 2022/0226, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, REM, Universidade de Lisboa.
    2. Amat Adarov & Ugo Panizza, 2024. "Public Investment Quality and its Implications for Sovereign Risk and Debt Sustainability," IHEID Working Papers 12-2024, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
    3. António Afonso & João Tovar Jalles & Ana Venâncio, 2023. "Government Spending and Tax Revenue Decentralization and Public Sector Efficiency: Do Natural Disasters Matter?," CESifo Working Paper Series 10424, CESifo.
    4. Lucas Menescal & José Alves, 2023. "Tax structure and public sector efficiency: new evidence for developing countries," Working Papers REM 2023/0291, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, REM, Universidade de Lisboa.
    5. António Afonso & João Tovar Jalles & Ana Venâncio, 2024. "A tale of government spending efficiency and trust in the state," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 200(1), pages 89-118, July.
    6. Afonso, António & Tovar Jalles, João & Venâncio, Ana, 2024. "Fiscal decentralization and public sector efficiency: Do natural disasters matter?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    7. António Afonso & José Alves & Najat Bazah, 2024. "Public Sector Efficiency and the Functions of the Government," Working Papers REM 2024/0357, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, REM, Universidade de Lisboa.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Janne Tukiainen & Sebastian Blesse & Albrecht Bohne & Leonardo M. Giuffrida & Jan Jäässkeläinen & Ari Luukinen & Antti Sieppi, 2021. "What Are the Priorities of Bureaucrats? Evidence from Conjoint Experiments with Procurement Officials," EconPol Working Paper 63, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    2. António Afonso & João Tovar Jalles & Ana Venâncio, 2021. "Taxation and Public Spending Efficiency: An International Comparison," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 63(3), pages 356-383, September.
    3. Ant—nio Afonso & João Tovar Jalles & Ana Venâncio, 2023. "Government spending efficiency, measurement and applications: A cross-country efficiency dataset," Chapters, in: António Afonso & João Tovar Jalles & Ana Venâncio (ed.), Handbook on Public Sector Efficiency, chapter 3, pages 44-71, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    4. António Afonso & João Tovar Jalles & Ana Venâncio, 2024. "A tale of government spending efficiency and trust in the state," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 200(1), pages 89-118, July.
    5. Afonso, António & Tovar Jalles, João & Venâncio, Ana, 2024. "Fiscal decentralization and public sector efficiency: Do natural disasters matter?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    6. António Afonso & José Alves, 2023. "Are fiscal consolidation episodes helpful for public sector efficiency?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 55(31), pages 3547-3560, July.
    7. António Afonso & João Tovar Jalles & Ana Venâncio, 2021. "Structural Tax Reforms and Public Spending Efficiency," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 32(5), pages 1017-1061, November.
    8. António Afonso & João Tovar Jalles & Ana Venâncio, 2023. "Government Spending and Tax Revenue Decentralization and Public Sector Efficiency: Do Natural Disasters matter?," Working Papers REM 2023/0271, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, REM, Universidade de Lisboa.
    9. António Afonso & José Alves, 2022. "Does government spending efficiency improve fiscal sustainability?," Working Papers REM 2022/0226, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, REM, Universidade de Lisboa.
    10. António Afonso & José Alves & Najat Bazah, 2024. "Public Sector Efficiency and the Functions of the Government," Working Papers REM 2024/0357, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, REM, Universidade de Lisboa.
    11. López-Herrera, Carmen & Cordero, José M. & Pedraja-Chaparro, Francisco & Polo, Cristina, 2023. "Fiscal rules and their influence on public sector efficiency," MPRA Paper 119018, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Lucas Menescal & José Alves, 2023. "Tax Structure and Public Sector Efficiency: New Evidence for Developing Countries," CESifo Working Paper Series 10726, CESifo.
    13. Slapnik, Ursula & Lončarski, Igor, 2023. "Understanding sovereign credit ratings: Text-based evidence from the credit rating reports," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    14. Antonio Afonso & Joao Tovar Jalles, 2019. "Sovereign Ratings and Finance Ministers' Characteristics," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 39(4), pages 2999-3010.
    15. Ablam Estel Apeti & Bao-We-Wal Bambe & Aguima Aime Bernard Lompo, 2023. "Determinants of public sector efficiency: a panel database from a stochastic frontier analysis," Post-Print hal-04189811, HAL.
    16. Jean-François Brun & Constantin Thierry Compaore, 2021. "Public Expenditures Efficiency On Education Distribution in Developing Countries," CERDI Working papers hal-03116615, HAL.
    17. António Afonso & Ana Patricia Montes & José M. Domínguez, 2024. "Measuring Tax Burden Efficiency in OECD Countries: An International Comparison," CESifo Working Paper Series 11333, CESifo.
    18. João T. Jalles, 2022. "Do credit rating agencies reward fiscal prudence?," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(1), pages 2-22, April.
    19. Christl, Michael & Köppl-Turyna, Monika & Kucsera, Dénes, 2018. "Public sector efficiency in Europe: Long-run trends, recent developments and determinants," Working Papers 14, Agenda Austria.
    20. Tumaniants, Karen A. (Туманянц, Карэн) & Sesina, Julia E. (Сесина, Юлия), 2017. "Social Expenditures of Russian Regions in Terms of “Input-Output” [Расходы На Социальную Политику Российских Регионов В Координатах «Затраты — Результат»]," Ekonomicheskaya Politika / Economic Policy, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, vol. 5, pages 128-149, October.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    government spending efficiency; DEA; panel analysis; ordered probit (logit); sovereign ratings; rating agencies;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:inf:wpaper:2021.01. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Pedro Cerqueira (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/inferea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.