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Historische Preissteigerungen in Deutschland, niedrige Inflation in der Schweiz: Die Rolle von Regulierung

Author

Listed:
  • Sebastian Dullien

    (Macroeconomic Policy Institute (IMK))

  • David Gallusser

    (Schweizerischer Gewerkschaftsbund (SGB))

  • Silke Tober

    (Macroeconomic Policy Institute (IMK))

Abstract

Als Folge der massiven Preisschocks 2021 und 2022 schnellte die HVPI-Rate in Deutschland teilweise auf über 11 %, überschritt in der Schweiz aber nur kurzzeitig 3 %. Entscheidend war, dass die Energiepreise in der Spitze in Deutschland 5,3 Prozentpunkte zur Inflation beitrugen (Oktober 2022) verglichen mit 1,5 Prozentpunkten in der Schweiz (Juni 2022) und weitgefasste Nahrungsmittel 3,1 Prozentpunkte verglichen mit 0,8 Prozentpunkten (März 2023). Dieser Beitrag untersucht die Rolle struktureller Unterschiede beim Durchwirken der internationalen Preisschocks auf die inländische Inflation. Von Bedeutung sind dabei erstens regulatorische Unterschiede und der ausgeprägte Protektionismus des Agrarsektors in der Schweiz. Ein zweiter Faktor sind unterschiedliche Warenkorbstrukturen. Eingriffe des Staates in die Preisbildung sowie Veränderungen indirekter Steuern und Abgaben begründen drittens, warum die Inflationsunterschiede nicht noch ausgeprägter ausfielen und warum die Strompreise in der Schweiz trotz der Bedeutung der Wasserkraft letztlich ähnlich stark anzogen wie in Deutschland. Demgegenüber dürfte die geldpolitische Reaktion bestenfalls eine untergeordnete Rolle gespielt haben, auch wenn die deutlichere Abwertung des Euro die externen Preisschocks verstärkt hat.

Suggested Citation

  • Sebastian Dullien & David Gallusser & Silke Tober, 2024. "Historische Preissteigerungen in Deutschland, niedrige Inflation in der Schweiz: Die Rolle von Regulierung," IMK Working Paper 224-2024, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    • Handle: RePEc:imk:wpaper:224-2024
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Burstein, Ariel & Gopinath, Gita, 2014. "International Prices and Exchange Rates," Handbook of International Economics, in: Gopinath, G. & Helpman, . & Rogoff, K. (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 0, pages 391-451, Elsevier.
    2. Mai Dao & Allan Dizioli & Chris Jackson & Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas & Mr. Daniel Leigh, 2023. "Unconventional Fiscal Policy in Times of High Inflation," IMF Working Papers 2023/178, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Ernst Baltensperger & Peter Kugler, 2016. "The historical origins of the safe haven status of the Swiss franc:," Aussenwirtschaft, University of St. Gallen, School of Economics and Political Science, Swiss Institute for International Economics and Applied Economics Research, vol. 67(02), pages 1-30, August.
    4. Dr. Jonas Stulz, 2007. "Exchange rate pass-through in Switzerland: Evidence from vector autoregressions," Economic Studies 2007-04, Swiss National Bank.
    5. Andreas Bachmann, 2012. "Exchange rate pass-through to various price indices: empirical estimation using vector error correction models," Diskussionsschriften dp1205, Universitaet Bern, Departement Volkswirtschaft.
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    Keywords

    Preissteigerungen; HVPI; Inflation; Schweiz; Deutschland; Preisschock; Energiepreise;
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