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Inflation trotz Aufschwung zu niedrig - Prognose-Update: Die konjunkturelle Lage in Deutschland zur Jahresmitte

Author

Listed:
  • Peter Hohlfeld

    (Macroeconomic Policy Institute (IMK))

  • Katja Rietzler

    (Macroeconomic Policy Institute (IMK))

  • Thomas Theobald

    (Macroeconomic Policy Institute (IMK))

  • Silke Tober

    (Macroeconomic Policy Institute (IMK))

  • Sebastian Watzka

    (Macroeconomic Policy Institute (IMK))

Abstract

Der moderate Aufschwung in Deutschland bleibt intakt, die Inflation verharrt aber deutlich unterhalb des Inflationsziels der EZB. Die Konjunktur der übrigen Weltwirtschaft gewinnt etwas an Dynamik. Davon profitieren die deutschen Exporte. Die großen Zentralbanken halten an ihrem stark expansiven geldpolitischen Kurs grundsätzlich fest und straffen die geldpolitischen Zügel nur behutsam. Der bereits auf breiterer Basis stehende Aufschwung im Euroraum wird sich vor diesem Hintergrund festigen, aber die Inflationsrate wird sich nur im Schneckentempo in Richtung Inflationsziel bewegen. Bei anziehenden Investitionen und etwas gedämpftem Konsum wird das Euroraum-BIP in den Jahren 2017 und 2018 mit jeweils 1,9 % etwas stärker zunehmen als zuvor.Die Fortsetzung des Aufschwungs in Deutschland geht mit einer Verlagerung der Wachstumskräfte einher. Der Konsum büßt an Dynamik ein, während die Investitions- und Auslandsnachfrage an Fahrt gewinnen. Der Anstieg des BIP wird 2017 1,5 % (kalenderbereinigt: 1,8 %) und 2018 1,8 % (kalenderbereinigt: 1,8 %) betragen. Die Arbeitslosenquote liegt bei 5,7 % (2018: 5,5 %) und trotz der guten Beschäftigungslage steigen die Verbraucherpreise nur verhalten um 1,6 % (2018: 1,5 %).

Suggested Citation

  • Peter Hohlfeld & Katja Rietzler & Thomas Theobald & Silke Tober & Sebastian Watzka, 2017. "Inflation trotz Aufschwung zu niedrig - Prognose-Update: Die konjunkturelle Lage in Deutschland zur Jahresmitte," IMK Report 127-2017, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    • Handle: RePEc:imk:report:127-2017
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    References listed on IDEAS

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