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Aging Gracefully: Steering the Banking Sector through Demographic Shifts

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  • Patrick A. Imam
  • Mr. Christian Schmieder

Abstract

We analyze how aging populations might affect the stability of banking systems through changes in the balance sheets and risk preferences of banks over the period 2000-2022. While the anticipated decline in maturity transformation due to aging hints at a possible reduction in risk exposure, an older population may propel banks towards yield-seeking behaviors, offsetting the diminishing prominence of conventional lending operations. Through a comprehensive examination of advanced economies over the past two decades, our findings reveal a general enhancement in bank stability correlating with the aging of populations. However, the adaptive responses of banks to these demographic changes are potentially introducing tail risks. Given the rapid global shift towards aging societies, our analysis highlights the critical need for policymakers to be proactive and vigilant. This is particularly pertinent considering historical precedents where periods of relative stability have often been harbingers of emerging risks.

Suggested Citation

  • Patrick A. Imam & Mr. Christian Schmieder, 2024. "Aging Gracefully: Steering the Banking Sector through Demographic Shifts," IMF Working Papers 2024/118, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2024/118
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Aging; Demographics; Bank risk-taking; Financial Stability; IMF working paper No. 24/118; tail risk; risk preference; stability risk; solvency profile; bank assets; Commercial banks; Bank soundness; Loans; Global;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill
    • B26 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - History of Economic Thought since 1925 - - - Financial Economics

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