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US Housing Market during COVID-19: Aggregate and Distributional Evidence

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  • Mr. Yunhui Zhao

Abstract

Using zip code-level data and nonparametric estimation, I present eight stylized facts on the US housing market in the COVID-19 era. Some aggregate results are: (1) growth rate of median housing price during the four months (April-August 2020) since the Federal Reserve’s unprecedented monetary easing has accelerated faster than any four-month period in the lead-up to the 2007-09 global financial crisis; (2) the increase in housing demand in response to lower mortgage interest rates displays a structural break since March 2020 (housing demand has increased by much more than before). These results indicate either the existence of “fear of missing out” or COVID-induced fundamental changes in household behavior. In terms of distributional evidence, I find that the increase of housing demand seems more pronounced among the two ends of the income distribution, possibly reflecting relaxed liquidity constraints at the lower end and speculative demand at the higher end. I also find that the developments in housing price, demand, and supply since April 2020 are similar across urban, suburban, and rural areas. The paper highlights some potential unintended consequences of COVID-fighting policies and calls for further studies of the driving forces of the empirical findings.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Yunhui Zhao, 2020. "US Housing Market during COVID-19: Aggregate and Distributional Evidence," IMF Working Papers 2020/212, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2020/212
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    Cited by:

    1. Xinba Li & Chihwa Kao, 2022. "Spatial Analysis and Modeling of the Housing Value Changes in the U.S. during the COVID-19 Pandemic," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 15(3), pages 1-25, March.
    2. Wang, Bingbing, 2022. "Housing market volatility under COVID-19: Diverging response of demand in luxury and low-end housing markets," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 119(C).
    3. Verdouw, Julia & Yanotti, Maria B. & De Vries, Jacqueline & Flanagan, Kathleen & Haman, Omar Ben, 2021. "Pathways to regional housing recovery from COVID-19," SocArXiv rbx49, Center for Open Science.
    4. Xiaoling Chu & Chiuling Lu & Desmond Tsang, 2021. "Geographic Scope and Real Estate Firm Performance during the COVID-19 Pandemic," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(7), pages 1-16, July.
    5. Bertrand Achou & Hippolyte d'Albis & Eleni Iliopulo, 2021. "House prices and rents: a reappraisal," Cahiers de recherche / Working Papers 6, Institut sur la retraite et l'épargne / Retirement and Savings Institute.
    6. Bertrand Achou & Hippolyte d'Albis & Eleni Iliopulos, 2021. "Real Estate and Rental Markets during Covid Times," Documents de recherche 21-02, Centre d'Études des Politiques Économiques (EPEE), Université d'Evry Val d'Essonne.
    7. Waros Ngamsiriudom & Mohan Menon & Mitra Devkota, 2024. "How The Resurgence Of School Quality Shapes Home Pricing Decisions Post-Covid-19: Evidence From North Georgia," Annals - Economy Series, Constantin Brancusi University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 3, pages 5-15, June.
    8. Nicholas Bloom & Arjun Ramani, 2021. "The donut effect of Covid-19 on cities," CEP Discussion Papers dp1793, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    9. Tsai, I-Chun & Chiang, Ying-Hui & Lin, Shih-Yuan, 2022. "Effect of COVID-19 lockdowns on city-center and suburban housing markets: Evidence from Hangzhou, China," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    10. Dursun-de Neef, H. Özlem & Schandlbauer, Alexander, 2022. "COVID-19, bank deposits, and lending," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 20-33.
    11. Johnson, Kelsey K. & Parton, Lee & Nolte, Christoph & Williamson, Matt & Nogeire-McRae, Theresa & Paudel, Jayash & Brandt, Jodi, 2023. "Moving to the country: Understanding the effects of Covid-19 on property values and farmland development risk," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    12. Jeffrey P. Cohen & Felix L. Friedt & Jackson P. Lautier, 2022. "The impact of the Coronavirus pandemic on New York City real estate: First evidence," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 62(3), pages 858-888, June.
    13. Walter D'Lima & Luis Arturo Lopez & Archana Pradhan, 2022. "COVID‐19 and housing market effects: Evidence from U.S. shutdown orders," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 50(2), pages 303-339, June.
    14. Bingbing Wang, 2023. "The Effect of Proximity to Universities on House Prices after the COVID Outbreak," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 16(3), pages 1-10, March.
    15. Baulkaran, Vishaal & Jain, Pawan, 2023. "COVID-19, home equity and retirement funding," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(PB).
    16. Yang, Chih-Yuan & Chang, Chia-Chien, 2024. "Do economic uncertainty and persistence in housing prices matter on mortgage insurance?," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 33-44.
    17. Xinba Li & Chuanrong Zhang, 2021. "Did the COVID-19 Pandemic Crisis Affect Housing Prices Evenly in the U.S.?," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(21), pages 1-28, November.
    18. Ka Shing Cheung & Chung Yim Yiu & Chuyi Xiong, 2021. "Housing Market in the Time of Pandemic: A Price Gradient Analysis from the COVID-19 Epicentre in China," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(3), pages 1-17, March.
    19. Nadia Balemi & Roland Füss & Alois Weigand, 2021. "COVID-19’s impact on real estate markets: review and outlook," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 35(4), pages 495-513, December.
    20. Elisa Guglielminetti & Michele Loberto & Giordano Zevi & Roberta Zizza, 2021. "Living on my own: the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on housing preferences," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 627, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.

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