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Do FX Interventions Lead to Higher FX Debt? Evidence from Firm-Level Data

Author

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  • Minsuk Kim
  • Rui Mano
  • Mr. Mico Mrkaic

Abstract

Central banks often buy or sell reserves-–-so called FX interventions (FXIs)---to dampen sharp exchange rate movements caused by volatile capital flows. At the same time, these interventions may entail unintended side effects. In this paper, we investigate whether FXIs incentivize firms to take on more unhedged FX debt, thereby increasing medium-term corporate vulnerabilities. Using a novel dataset with close to 5,000 nonfinancial firms across 19 emerging markets covering 2002--2017, we find that the firm-level share of FX debt rises following intensive use of FXIs, particularly for non-exporting firms in shallow financial markets with no FX debt to begin with. The magnitude of this effect is economically significant, with one standard deviation increase in FXI leading to an average 2 percentage points increase in the FX debt share. For reference, the median share of FX debt in the sample is zero.

Suggested Citation

  • Minsuk Kim & Rui Mano & Mr. Mico Mrkaic, 2020. "Do FX Interventions Lead to Higher FX Debt? Evidence from Firm-Level Data," IMF Working Papers 2020/197, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2020/197
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    WP; firm; balance sheet data; FX intervention; corporate balance sheet vulnerabilities; financial development; FX debt; exchange rate depreciation; FXI x trade; issuance data; FXIS need; instrumented FXI; FXI intensity; Exchange rate arrangements; Exchange rates; Currencies; Exchange rate flexibility; Global; currency decision;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • O16 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Financial Markets; Saving and Capital Investment; Corporate Finance and Governance

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