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How Big are Fiscal Multipliers in Latin America?

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  • Jorge Restrepo

Abstract

This paper uses the strategy and data of Blanchard and Perotti (BP) to identify fiscal shocks and estimate fiscal multipliers for the United States. With these results, it computes the cumulative multiplier of Ramey and Zubairy (2018), now common in the literature. It finds that, contrary to the peak and through multipliers reported by BP, the cumulative tax multiplier is much larger than the cumulative spending one. Hence, the conclusions depend on the definition of multiplier. This methodology is also used to estimate the effects of fiscal shocks on economic activity in eight Latin American countries. The results suggest that the fiscal multipliers vary significantly across countries, and in some cases multipliers are larger than previously estimated.

Suggested Citation

  • Jorge Restrepo, 2020. "How Big are Fiscal Multipliers in Latin America?," IMF Working Papers 2020/017, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2020/017
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. International Monetary Fund, 2018. "Republic of Estonia: 2018 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; and Staff Report," IMF Staff Country Reports 2018/125, International Monetary Fund.
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    3. Alejandro López-Vera & Andrés D. Pinchao-Rosero & Norberto Rodríguez-Niño, 2018. "Non-Linear Fiscal Multipliers for Public Expenditure and Tax Revenue in Colombia," Revista ESPE - Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, vol. 36(85), pages 48-64, April.
    4. Jorge Fornero & Juan Guerra-Salas & Camilo Pérez N., 2019. "Multiplicadores fiscales en Chile," Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 22(1), pages 058-080, April.
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    6. Svetlana Vtyurina & Zulima Leal, 2016. "Fiscal Multipliers and Institutions in Peru: Getting the Largest Bang for the Sol," IMF Working Papers 2016/144, International Monetary Fund.
    7. -, 2018. "The Caribbean Outlook," Libros y Documentos Institucionales, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), number 43581 edited by Eclac.
    8. Mr. Marcello M. Estevão & Issouf Samaké, 2013. "The Economic Effects of Fiscal Consolidation with Debt Feedback," IMF Working Papers 2013/136, International Monetary Fund.
    9. International Monetary Fund, 2018. "Dominican Republic: 2018 Article IV Consultation-Press Release and Staff Report," IMF Staff Country Reports 2018/294, International Monetary Fund.
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    Cited by:

    1. Restrepo-Ángel, Sergio & Rincón-Castro, Hernán & Ospina-Tejeiro, Juan J., 2022. "Multipliers of taxes and public spending in Colombia: SVAR and local projections approaches," Latin American Journal of Central Banking (previously Monetaria), Elsevier, vol. 3(3).
    2. Marina da Silva Sanches & Laura Barbosa de Carvalho, 2023. "Multiplier effects of social protection: a SVAR approach for Brazil," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(1), pages 93-112, January.
    3. Sergio Restrepo-Ángel & Hernán Rincón-Castro & Juan J. Ospina-Tejeiro, 2020. "Multiplicadores de los impuestos y del gasto público en Colombia: aproximaciones SVAR y proyecciones locales," Borradores de Economia 1114, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    4. Tannous Kass-Hanna & Julien Reynaud & Chris Walker, 2023. "Estimating Fiscal Multipliers Under Alternative Exchange Rate Regimes: The Case of Bolivia," IMF Working Papers 2023/240, International Monetary Fund.

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