IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/105040.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Estimación de multiplicadores fiscales para Nicaragua con datos trimestrales de 2006 a 2018
[Estimation of fiscal multipliers for Nicaragua with quarterly data from 2006 to 2018]

Author

Listed:
  • Membreño, Luis
  • López, Jennifer
  • Jiménez, Kenneth

Abstract

In the present study, we estimate the symmetric and asymmetric multipliers of expenditure and income for Nicaragua. For the symmetric model we used the Structural Vector Autoregressive (SVAR) to identify the fiscal multipliers on the product, consumption and investment. For the asymmetric model we used the local projections approach. The results of the linear model found that spending and income multipliers of the Central Government are less than one Córdoba for GDP, consumption and private investment. Likewise, the results suggest that capital spending has a greater effect on the product. Regarding to the non-linear model, a slight asymmetry was evidenced in the spending multipliers while the income multiplier was always negative no matter the state of the economy.

Suggested Citation

  • Membreño, Luis & López, Jennifer & Jiménez, Kenneth, 2020. "Estimación de multiplicadores fiscales para Nicaragua con datos trimestrales de 2006 a 2018 [Estimation of fiscal multipliers for Nicaragua with quarterly data from 2006 to 2018]," MPRA Paper 105040, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 28 Dec 2020.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:105040
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/105040/1/MPRA_paper_105040.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Marattin, Luigi & Salotti, Simone, 2011. "On the usefulness of government spending in the EU area," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 40(6), pages 780-795.
    2. Alan J. Auerbach & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2012. "Fiscal Multipliers in Recession and Expansion," NBER Chapters, in: Fiscal Policy after the Financial Crisis, pages 63-98, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Roberto Perotti, 2005. "Estimating the effects of fiscal policy in OECD countries," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    4. Garry, Stefanie & Rivas Valdivia, Juan Carlos, 2017. "An analysis of the contribution of public expenditure to economic growth and fiscal multipliers in Mexico, Central America and the Dominican Republic, 1990-2015," Estudios y Perspectivas – Sede Subregional de la CEPAL en México 42062, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
    5. Mirdala, Rajmund & Kameník, Martin, 2017. "Effects of Fiscal Policy Shocks in CE3 Countries (TVAR Approach)," MPRA Paper 79918, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Mr. Marcello M. Estevão & Issouf Samaké, 2013. "The Economic Effects of Fiscal Consolidation with Debt Feedback," IMF Working Papers 2013/136, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Ignacio Lozano & Karen Rodríguez, 2011. "Assessing the macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy in Colombia," Journal of Financial Economic Policy, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 3(3), pages 206-228, August.
    8. Baum, Anja & Koester, Gerrit B., 2011. "The impact of fiscal policy on economic activity over the business cycle - evidence from a threshold VAR analysis," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2011,03, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    9. Mr. Antonio David, 2017. "Fiscal Policy Effectiveness in a Small Open Economy: Estimates of Tax and Spending Multipliers in Paraguay," IMF Working Papers 2017/063, International Monetary Fund.
    10. Hernández de Cos, Pablo & de Castro Fernández, Francisco, 2006. "The economic effects of exogenous fiscal shocks in Spain: a SVAR approach," Working Paper Series 647, European Central Bank.
    11. Olivier Blanchard & Roberto Perotti, 2002. "An Empirical Characterization of the Dynamic Effects of Changes in Government Spending and Taxes on Output," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 117(4), pages 1329-1368.
    12. Rafael Ravnik & Ivan Zilic, 2011. "The use of SVAR analysis in determining the effects of ?scal shocks in Croatia," Financial Theory and Practice, Institute of Public Finance, vol. 35(1), pages 25-58.
    13. Sergio Restrepo-Ángel & Hernán Rincón-Castro & Juan J. Ospina-Tejeiro, 2020. "Multiplicadores de los impuestos y del gasto público en Colombia: aproximaciones SVAR y proyecciones locales," Borradores de Economia 1114, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Membreño, Luis & López, Jennifer & Jiménez, Kenneth, 2020. "Estimación de multiplicadores fiscales para Nicaragua con datos trimestrales de 2006 a 2018 [Estimation of fiscal multipliers for Nicaragua with quarterly data from 2006 to 2018]," MPRA Paper 105132, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 30 Dec 2020.
    2. Hernán Rincón & Diego Rodríguez & Jorge Toro & Santiago Téllez, 2017. "FISCO: modelo fiscal para Colombia," Revista ESPE - Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, vol. 35(83), pages 161-187, June.
    3. Holland, Marcio & Marçal, Emerson & de Prince, Diogo, 2020. "Is fiscal policy effective in Brazil? An empirical analysis," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 40-52.
    4. Jorge Puig, 2014. "Multiplicador del gasto público en Argentina," Económica, Departamento de Economía, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas, Universidad Nacional de La Plata, vol. 60, pages 188-210, January-D.
    5. Alejandro López-Vera & Andrés D. Pinchao-Rosero & Norberto Rodríguez-Niño, 2018. "Non-Linear Fiscal Multipliers for Public Expenditure and Tax Revenue in Colombia," Revista ESPE - Ensayos Sobre Política Económica, Banco de la República, vol. 36(85), pages 48-64, November.
    6. Marie-Pierre Hory, 2016. "Fiscal multipliers in Emerging Market Economies: Can we learn something from Advanced Economies?," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 146, pages 59-84.
    7. Chafik, Omar, 2021. "Impôt sur les sociétés et investissement : quel lien au Maroc ?," Document de travail 2021-4, Bank Al-Maghrib, Département de la Recherche.
    8. Bogdan Muraraşu & Cristina Anghelescu & Robert Adrian Grecu, 2023. "Assessing fiscal multipliers in times of crisis: evidence from selected CEE countries," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 65(4), pages 1627-1654, October.
    9. Berger, Johannes & Graf, Nikolaus & Strohner, Ludwig & Schuh, Ulrich, 2014. "Auswirkungen von ausgaben- und einnahmenseitigen Konsolidierungen," Research Papers 2, EcoAustria – Institute for Economic Research.
    10. Monokroussos, Platon, 2014. "The challenge of restoring debt sustainability in a deep economic recession: the case of Greece," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 59668, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    11. Goran Petrevski & Borce Trenovski & Biljana Tashevska, 2019. "The effectiveness of fiscal and monetary policies in a small open economy – the case of Macedonia," Post-Communist Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(6), pages 805-821, November.
    12. António Afonso & Ricardo Sousa, 2011. "The macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy in Portugal: a Bayesian SVAR analysis," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer;Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestao, vol. 10(1), pages 61-82, April.
    13. Iván Kataryniuk & Javier Vallés, 2018. "Fiscal consolidation after the Great Recession: the role of composition," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 70(2), pages 563-585.
    14. Ianc, Nicolae-Bogdan & Turcu, Camelia, 2020. "So alike, yet so different: Comparing fiscal multipliers across EU members and candidates," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 278-298.
    15. Chibi Abderrahim & Chekouri Sidi Mohamed & Benbouziane Mohamed, 2019. "The Impact of Fiscal Policy on Economic Activity over the Business Cycle: An Empirical Investigation in the Case of Algeria," Review of Middle East Economics and Finance, De Gruyter, vol. 15(3), pages 1-23, December.
    16. Pablo Hernández de Cos & Enrique Moral-Benito, 2016. "Fiscal multipliers in turbulent times: the case of Spain," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 50(4), pages 1589-1625, June.
    17. Platon Monokroussos, 2014. "The Challenge of Restoring Debt Sustainability in a Deep Economic Recession: The case of Greece," GreeSE – Hellenic Observatory Papers on Greece and Southeast Europe 87, Hellenic Observatory, LSE.
    18. Carrillo, Paul A., 2010. "“Modelo Dinámico para Análisis y Pronóstico del Producto Interno Bruto”: Un Enfoque Fiscal Aplicando un Modelo SVAR [Dynamic Model for Analysis and Forecast of Gross Domestic Product': A Fiscal App," MPRA Paper 32005, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Ramey, V.A., 2016. "Macroeconomic Shocks and Their Propagation," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 71-162, Elsevier.
    20. Berg, Tim Oliver, 2019. "Business Uncertainty And The Effectiveness Of Fiscal Policy In Germany," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 23(4), pages 1442-1470, June.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fiscal policy; Fiscal multipliers; Asymmetry; Structural Vector Autoregressive; Local projections.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:105040. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.