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The Impact of Bailouts on the Probability of Sovereign Debt Crises: Evidence from IMF-Supported Programs

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  • Hippolyte W. Balima
  • Mr. Amadou N Sy

Abstract

This paper studies the role of IMF-supported programs in mitigating the likelihood of subsequent sovereign defaults in borrowing countries. Using a panel of 106 developing countries from 1970 to 2016 and an entropy balancing methodology, we find that IMF-supported programs significantly reduce the likelihood of subsequent sovereign defaults. This finding is robust to different specifications of the entropy balancing and alternative identification strategies. Our results suggest that a country that signs a program with the IMF, typically experiences a slight improvement in its sovereign credit rating and a decrease in both government debt-to-GDP and fiscal deficit-to-GDP.

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  • Hippolyte W. Balima & Mr. Amadou N Sy, 2019. "The Impact of Bailouts on the Probability of Sovereign Debt Crises: Evidence from IMF-Supported Programs," IMF Working Papers 2019/002, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2019/002
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