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New Estimates for Direction of Trade Statistics

Author

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  • Mr. Marco Marini
  • Mr. Robert Dippelsman
  • Mr. Michael Stanger

Abstract

In March 2017, the IMF published an upgrade of its Direction of Trade Statistics (DOTS) dataset. This paper documents the new methodology that has been developed to estimate missing observations of bilateral trade statistics on a monthly basis. The new estimation procedure is founded on a benchmarking method that produces monthly estimates based on official trade statistics by partner country reported at different times and frequencies. In this paper we describe the new estimation methodology. Additional data sources have also been incorporated. We also assess the impact of the new estimates on trade measurement in DOTS at global, regional, and country-specific levels. Finally, we suggest some developments of DOTS to strenghten its relevance for IMF bilateral and multilateral surveillance.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Marco Marini & Mr. Robert Dippelsman & Mr. Michael Stanger, 2018. "New Estimates for Direction of Trade Statistics," IMF Working Papers 2018/016, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2018/016
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Guannan Miao & Fabienne Fortanier, 2017. "Estimating Transport and Insurance Costs of International Trade," OECD Statistics Working Papers 2017/4, OECD Publishing.
    2. Mr. Marco Marini & Mr. Tommaso Di Fonzo, 2012. "On the Extrapolation with the Denton Proportional Benchmarking Method," IMF Working Papers 2012/169, International Monetary Fund.
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    Cited by:

    1. Martin,William J., 2020. "Making Gravity Great Again," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9391, The World Bank.
    2. Carton, Christine & Slim, Sadri, 2018. "Trade misinvoicing in OECD countries: what can we learn from bilateral trade intensity indices?," MPRA Paper 85703, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Biswas, Amit K. & von Hagen, Jürgen & Sarkar, Sandip, 2022. "FDI Mismatch, trade Mis-reporting, and hidden capital Movements: The USA - China case," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    4. Mr. Sakai Ando, 2019. "International Financial Connection and Stock Return Comovement," IMF Working Papers 2019/181, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Jia Hou, 2020. "Revisiting the trade effects of the euro: data sources and various samples," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 59(6), pages 2731-2777, December.
    6. Mohammad Farhad & Michael Jetter & Abu Siddique & Andrew Williams, 2018. "Misreported Trade," CESifo Working Paper Series 7150, CESifo.
    7. Pierre Cotterlaz & Vincent Vicard, 2023. "Why Origin Matters in Trade Data," Working Papers 2023-23, CEPII research center.
    8. Ovielt Baltodano L'opez & Roberto Casarin, 2022. "A Dynamic Stochastic Block Model for Multi-Layer Networks," Papers 2209.09354, arXiv.org.

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