IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/imf/imfwpa/2016-234.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Tax Capacity and Growth: Is there a Tipping Point?

Author

Listed:
  • Vitor Gaspar
  • Laura Jaramillo
  • Mr. Philippe Wingender

Abstract

Is there a minimum tax to GDP ratio associated with a significant acceleration in the process of growth and development? We give an empirical answer to this question by investigating the existence of a tipping point in tax-to-GDP levels. We use two separate databases: a novel contemporary database covering 139 countries from 1965 to 2011 and a historical database for 30 advanced economies from 1800 to 1980. We find that the answer to the question is yes. Estimated tipping points are similar at about 12¾ percent of GDP. For the contemporary dataset we find that a country just above the threshold will have GDP per capita 7.5 percent larger, after 10 years. The effect is tightly estimated and economically large.

Suggested Citation

  • Vitor Gaspar & Laura Jaramillo & Mr. Philippe Wingender, 2016. "Tax Capacity and Growth: Is there a Tipping Point?," IMF Working Papers 2016/234, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2016/234
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=44436
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. By Mohsin S. Khan & Abdelhak S. Senhadji, 2001. "Threshold Effects in the Relationship Between Inflation and Growth," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 48(1), pages 1-1.
    2. Ronald G. Cummings & Jorge Martinez-Vazquez & Michael McKee & Benno Torgler, 2005. "Effects of Tax Morale on Tax Compliance: Experimental and Survey Evidence," CREMA Working Paper Series 2005-29, Center for Research in Economics, Management and the Arts (CREMA).
    3. Paola Profeta & Simona Scabrosetti, 2010. "The Political Economy of Taxation," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 13258.
    4. Christian Ebeke & Helene Ehrhart, 2012. "Tax Revenue Instability in Sub-Saharan Africa: Consequences and Remedies," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies, vol. 21(1), pages 1-27, January.
    5. Burgess, Robin & Stern, Nicholas, 1993. "Taxation and Development," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 31(2), pages 762-830, June.
    6. Timothy Besley & Torsten Persson, 2011. "Pillars of Prosperity: The Political Economics of Development Clusters," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 9624.
    7. Caner, Mehmet & Hansen, Bruce E., 2004. "Instrumental Variable Estimation Of A Threshold Model," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 20(5), pages 813-843, October.
    8. Berg, Andrew & Ostry, Jonathan D. & Zettelmeyer, Jeromin, 2012. "What makes growth sustained?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(2), pages 149-166.
    9. Hansen, Bruce E., 1999. "Threshold effects in non-dynamic panels: Estimation, testing, and inference," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 93(2), pages 345-368, December.
    10. Hanushek, Eric A. & Woessmann, Ludger, 2015. "The Knowledge Capital of Nations: Education and the Economics of Growth," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262029170, April.
    11. Ricardo Hausmann & Lant Pritchett & Dani Rodrik, 2005. "Growth Accelerations," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 10(4), pages 303-329, December.
    12. repec:idq:ictduk:12795 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. David S. Lee & Thomas Lemieux, 2010. "Regression Discontinuity Designs in Economics," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 48(2), pages 281-355, June.
    14. Alexander Chudik & Kamiar Mohaddes & M. Hashem Pesaran & Mehdi Raissi, 2017. "Is There a Debt-Threshold Effect on Output Growth?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 99(1), pages 135-150, March.
    15. Anders Jensen, 2011. "State-Building in Resource-Rich Economies," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 39(2), pages 171-193, June.
    16. Reinhart, Karmen & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2009. ""This time is different": panorama of eight centuries of financial crises," Ekonomicheskaya Politika / Economic Policy, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, vol. 1, pages 77-114, March.
    17. Luc Laeven & Fabian Valencia, 2020. "Systemic Banking Crises Database II," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 68(2), pages 307-361, June.
    18. Gordon, Roger & Li, Wei, 2009. "Tax structures in developing countries: Many puzzles and a possible explanation," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(7-8), pages 855-866, August.
    19. Robert J. Barro & Xavier Sala-I-Martin, 1992. "Public Finance in Models of Economic Growth," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 59(4), pages 645-661.
    20. Qunyong Wang, 2015. "Fixed-effect panel threshold model using Stata," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 15(1), pages 121-134, March.
    21. Mario Mansour, 2015. "Tax Policy in MENA Countries: Looking Back and Forward," IMF Working Papers 2015/098, International Monetary Fund.
    22. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2014. "This Time is Different: A Panoramic View of Eight Centuries of Financial Crises," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 15(2), pages 215-268, November.
    23. Henrik Jacobsen Kleven & Claus Thustrup Kreiner & Emmanuel Saez, 2016. "Why Can Modern Governments Tax So Much? An Agency Model of Firms as Fiscal Intermediaries," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 83(330), pages 219-246, April.
    24. Traxler, Christian, 2010. "Social norms and conditional cooperative taxpayers," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 89-103, March.
    25. Barro, Robert J, 1990. "Government Spending in a Simple Model of Endogenous Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(5), pages 103-126, October.
    26. Anuradha Joshi & Wilson Prichard & Christopher Heady, 2014. "Taxing the Informal Economy: The Current State of Knowledge and Agendas for Future Research," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(10), pages 1325-1347, November.
    27. Brautigam,Deborah & Fjeldstad,Odd-Helge & Moore,Mick (ed.), 2008. "Taxation and State-Building in Developing Countries," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521716192, January.
    28. Adam, Christopher S. & Bevan, David L., 2005. "Fiscal deficits and growth in developing countries," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(4), pages 571-597, April.
    29. Timothy Besley & Torsten Persson, 2014. "Why Do Developing Countries Tax So Little?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 28(4), pages 99-120, Fall.
    30. Dora Benedek & Ernesto Crivelli & Sanjeev Gupta & Priscilla Muthoora, 2014. "Foreign Aid and Revenue: Still a Crowding-Out Effect?," FinanzArchiv: Public Finance Analysis, Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen, vol. 70(1), pages 67-96, March.
    31. André Seidel & Marcel Thum, 2016. "Tax Evasion, Corruption and Market Entry," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 63(4), pages 377-398, September.
    32. Bruce E. Hansen, 2000. "Sample Splitting and Threshold Estimation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(3), pages 575-604, May.
    33. Pritchett, Lant, 2000. "Understanding Patterns of Economic Growth: Searching for Hills among Plateaus, Mountains, and Plains," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 14(2), pages 221-250, May.
    34. Mario MANSOUR, 2014. "A Tax Revenue Dataset for Sub-Saharan Africa: 1980-2010," Working Papers I19, FERDI.
    35. Benno Torgler, 2007. "Tax Compliance and Tax Morale," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 4096.
    36. Brautigam,Deborah & Fjeldstad,Odd-Helge & Moore,Mick (ed.), 2008. "Taxation and State-Building in Developing Countries," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521888158, January.
    37. Mr. Fabian Valencia & Mr. Luc Laeven, 2012. "Systemic Banking Crises Database: An Update," IMF Working Papers 2012/163, International Monetary Fund.
    38. Bird, Richard M. & Martinez-Vazquez, Jorge & Torgler, Benno, 2008. "Tax Effort in Developing Countries and High Income Countries: The Impact of Corruption, Voice and Accountability," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 55-71, March.
    39. Porter, Jack & Yu, Ping, 2015. "Regression discontinuity designs with unknown discontinuity points: Testing and estimation," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 189(1), pages 132-147.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Leroux, Marie-Louise & Maldonado, Dario & Pestieau, Pierre, 2019. "The political economy of contributive pensions in developing countries," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 262-275.
    2. Sanjeev Gupta & João Tovar Jalles & Jianhong Liu, 2022. "Tax Buoyancy in Sub-Saharan Africa and its Determinants," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 29(4), pages 890-921, August.
    3. Mawejje, Joseph & Sebudde, Rachel K., 2019. "Tax revenue potential and effort: Worldwide estimates using a new dataset," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 119-129.
    4. Era Dabla-Norris & Florian Misch & Duncan Cleary & Munawer Khwaja, 2020. "The quality of tax administration and firm performance: evidence from developing countries," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 27(3), pages 514-551, June.
    5. Vitor Gaspar & Laura Jaramillo & Mr. Philippe Wingender, 2016. "Political Institutions, State Building, and Tax Capacity: Crossing the Tipping Point," IMF Working Papers 2016/233, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Ms. Majdeline El Rayess & Avril Halstead & Jason Harris & Mr. John Ralyea & Alexander F. Tieman, 2019. "Indonesia's Public Wealth: A Balance Sheet Approach to Fiscal Policy Analysis," IMF Working Papers 2019/081, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Pierre Jacquemot & Marc Raffinot, 2018. "La mobilisation fiscale en Afrique," Revue d'économie financière, Association d'économie financière, vol. 0(3), pages 243-263.
    8. Victor Barros & Joao Tovar Jalles & Joaquim Miranda Sarmento, 2023. "Drivers of the Tax Effort: Evidence from a Large Panel," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 65(1), pages 96-136, March.
    9. Stephen Hall & Bernadette O’Hare, 2023. "A Model to Explain the Impact of Government Revenue on the Quality of Governance and the SDGs," Economies, MDPI, vol. 11(4), pages 1-16, March.
    10. Annalena Oppel & Kyle McNabb & Daniel Chachu, 2022. "The dynamics of domestic revenue mobilization across four decades," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2022-1, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    11. Christine Lewis, 2019. "Raising more public revenue in Indonesia in a growth - and equity-friendly way," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 1534, OECD Publishing.
    12. Luis Rene Caceres, 2019. "Determinants of trust in government in Latin America," Remef - Revista Mexicana de Economía y Finanzas Nueva Época REMEF (The Mexican Journal of Economics and Finance), Instituto Mexicano de Ejecutivos de Finanzas, IMEF, vol. 14(3), pages 329-351, Julio - S.
    13. Mr. Tigran Poghosyan, 2018. "Investment Slowdown in Denmark: Diagnosis and Policy Options," IMF Working Papers 2018/161, International Monetary Fund.
    14. Suleiman O. Mamman & Kazi Sohag & Attahir B. Abubakar, 2023. "Inclusive growth in Africa: Do fiscal measures matter?," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(2), pages 2273604-227, October.
    15. Touray, Alfusainey & Jahateh, Ndey, 2024. "Tax Revenue And Economic Growth Nexus in The Gambia: Evidence From The ARDL Model," MPRA Paper 121588, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Finér Lauri, 2022. "Who generated the loopholes? A case study of corporate tax advisors’ regulatory capture over anti-tax avoidance legislation in Finland," Nordic Tax Journal, Sciendo, vol. 2022(1), pages 1-26, December.
    17. Bolch, Kimberly B. & Ceriani, Lidia & López-Calva, Luis F., 2022. "The arithmetics and politics of domestic resource mobilization for poverty eradication," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    18. Matthew Collin & Vincenzo Di Maro & David K. Evans & Fredrick Manang, 2022. "Property Tax Compliance in Tanzania: Can Nudges Help?," Working Papers 621, Center for Global Development.
    19. Klimis Vogiatzoglou & Lien Phuong Nguyen, 2018. "Generation Of Tax Revenues And Economic Development: A Panel-Analysis For Emerging Economies In Asia," Review of Economic and Business Studies, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, issue 21, pages 9-30, June.
    20. Mrs. Esther Perez Ruiz & Mauricio Soto, 2019. "Attaining Selected Sustainable Development Goals in Guatemala: Spending, Provision, and Financing Needs," IMF Working Papers 2019/060, International Monetary Fund.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Simone Salotti & Carmine Trecroci, 2012. "Even worse than you thought: The effects of government debt on investment and productivity," EcoMod2012 4200, EcoMod.
    2. Cyril Chimilila & Vincent Leyaro, 2022. "ICT, e-formalization and tax mobilisation efforts in sub-Saharan Africa," Discussion Papers 2022-03, University of Nottingham, CREDIT.
    3. Simone Salotti & Carmine Trecroci, 2012. "Even Worse than You thought: The Impact of Public Debt on Aggregate Investment and Productivity," DEGIT Conference Papers c017_020, DEGIT, Dynamics, Economic Growth, and International Trade.
    4. Combes, Jean-Louis & Minea, Alexandru & Sawadogo, Pegdéwendé Nestor, 2021. "Does the composition of government spending matter for government bond spreads?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 409-420.
    5. Chung‐Hua Shen & Hsing‐Hua Hsu, 2022. "The determinants of Asian banking crises—Application of the panel threshold logit model," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 22(1), pages 248-277, March.
    6. Erasmo Papagni & Amedeo Lepore & Emanuele Felice & Anna Laura Baraldi & Maria Rosaria Alfano, 2018. "Public Investment and Growth Accelerations: The Case of Southern Italy, 1951-1995," EERI Research Paper Series EERI RP 2018/10, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels.
    7. Tamoya Christie, 2014. "The Effect Of Government Spending On Economic Growth: Testing The Non-Linear Hypothesis," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 66(2), pages 183-204, April.
    8. Mawejje, Joseph & Sebudde, Rachel K., 2019. "Tax revenue potential and effort: Worldwide estimates using a new dataset," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 119-129.
    9. Persson, Torsten & Besley, Tim, 2013. "Taxation and Development," CEPR Discussion Papers 9307, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    10. Gwaindepi, Abel, 2019. "Domestic revenue mobilization in Sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America: A comparative analysis since 1980," Lund Papers in Economic History 209, Lund University, Department of Economic History.
    11. Bente Castro Campos, 2020. "Are there asymmetric relations between real interest rates and agricultural commodity prices? Testing for threshold effects of US real interest rates and adjusted wheat, corn, and soybean prices," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 59(1), pages 371-394, July.
    12. Jean-François Brun & Sèna Kimm Gnangnon, 2019. "Tax reform, public revenue and public revenue instability in developing countries: Does development aid matter?," CERDI Working papers halshs-02089734, HAL.
    13. Christian Ebeke & M Mansour & Grégoire Rota-Graziosi, 2016. "The Power to Tax in Sub-Saharan Africa: LTUs, VATs, and SARAs," Working Papers halshs-01332049, HAL.
    14. repec:cep:stieop:41 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Jean-François Brun & Sèna Kimm Gnangnon, 2019. "Tax reform, public revenue and public revenue instability in developing countries: Does development aid matter?," Working Papers halshs-02089734, HAL.
    16. Jean‐Marc B. Atsebi, 2024. "Igniting growth surges: Lessons from the past," Economics of Transition and Institutional Change, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 32(2), pages 525-569, April.
    17. Farzana Chowdhury & David B. Audretsch & Maksim Belitski, 2019. "Institutions and Entrepreneurship Quality," Entrepreneurship Theory and Practice, , vol. 43(1), pages 51-81, January.
    18. Olusegun Ayodele Akanbi, 2019. "State Institutions and Tax Capacity: An Empirical Investigation of Causality," IMF Working Papers 2019/177, International Monetary Fund.
    19. Sailesh Tanna & Chengchun Li & Glauco De Vita, 2018. "The role of external debt in the foreign direct investment–growth relationship," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(4), pages 393-412, October.
    20. Leanora Alecia Brown & Jorge Martinez-Vazquez, 2015. "International Debt Forgiveness: Who Gets Picked and Its Effect On The Tax Effort Of Developing Countries," International Center for Public Policy Working Paper Series, at AYSPS, GSU paper1504, International Center for Public Policy, Andrew Young School of Policy Studies, Georgia State University.
    21. António Afonso & Ana Patricia Montes & José M. Domínguez, 2024. "Measuring Tax Burden Efficiency in OECD Countries: An International Comparison," CESifo Working Paper Series 11333, CESifo.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2016/234. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Akshay Modi (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/imfffus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.