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Arrears to the IMF – A Ghost of the Past?

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  • Anne Oeking
  • Mariusz A. Sumlinski

Abstract

In this paper, we consider incidences of arrears to the IMF, focusing on protracted arrears cases and attempt to identify determinants of their occurrence. We use narrative and formal methods. In addition, we analyze determinants of the duration of arrears. We find that previous arrears, reserves coverage, and institutional quality are among the main determinants of arrears. In addition, we identify a role for political developments, including civil unrest, which make arrears more likely to arise and to last longer. We conclude that improved macroeconomic conditions and turnaround of political fortunes would help to clear the currently remaining protracted arrears cases.

Suggested Citation

  • Anne Oeking & Mariusz A. Sumlinski, 2016. "Arrears to the IMF – A Ghost of the Past?," IMF Working Papers 2016/225, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2016/225
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Ms. Chikako Oka, 2003. "Anticipating Arrears to the IMF Early Warning Systems," IMF Working Papers 2003/018, International Monetary Fund.
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    3. Mrs. Lynn Aylward & Mr. Rupert Thorne, 1998. "An Econometric Analysis of Countries' Repayment Performance to the International Monetary Fund," IMF Working Papers 1998/032, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Federico Sturzenegger & Jeromin Zettelmeyer, 2007. "Debt Defaults and Lessons from a Decade of Crises," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262195534, December.
    5. Lane, Philip R. & Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria, 2007. "The external wealth of nations mark II: Revised and extended estimates of foreign assets and liabilities, 1970-2004," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(2), pages 223-250, November.
    6. Lane, Philip & Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria, "undated". "External Wealth of Nations," Instructional Stata datasets for econometrics extwealth, Boston College Department of Economics.
    7. Christoph Trebesch & Mr. Michael G. Papaioannou & Mr. Udaibir S Das, 2012. "Sovereign Debt Restructurings 1950-2010: Literature Survey, Data, and Stylized Facts," IMF Working Papers 2012/203, International Monetary Fund.
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    Cited by:

    1. Martin Iseringhausen & Ms. Mwanza Nkusu & Wellian Wiranto, 2019. "Repeated Use of IMF-Supported Programs: Determinants and Forecasting," IMF Working Papers 2019/245, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Juan Pablo Bohoslavsky & Francisco Cantamutto & Laura Clérico, 2022. "IMF’s Surcharges as a Threat to the Right to Development," Development, Palgrave Macmillan;Society for International Deveopment, vol. 65(2), pages 194-202, December.

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