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Banking crises, external crises and gross capital flows

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  • Thorsten Janus
  • Daniel Riera-Crichton

Abstract

In this paper, we study the relationship between banking crises, external financial crises and gross international capital flows. First, we confirm that banking and external crises are correlated. Then, as we explore the role of gross capital flows, we find that declines of external liabilities in the balance of payments ? a proxy for foreign capital repatriation we call gross foreign investment reversals (GIR) ? predict banking as well as external crises. Finally, we estimate the effects of GIR-associated banking crises on the risk of currency and sudden stop crises in an instrumental-variables specification. In developing countries, GIR-associated banking crises increase the onset risk for currency and sudden stop crises by 39-50 and 28-30 percentage points per year respectively. For OECD countries, we show an increase in the currency crisis risk by 33-45 percentage points.

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  • Thorsten Janus & Daniel Riera-Crichton, 2016. "Banking crises, external crises and gross capital flows," Globalization Institute Working Papers 273, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:feddgw:273
    DOI: 10.24149/gwp273
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    2. Pinshi Paula, Christian, 2016. "Boucle rétroactive entre la volatilité des flux de capitaux et la stabilité financière : résultat pour la République démocratique du Congo [Feedback effect between Volatility of capital flows and f," MPRA Paper 78051, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 28 Mar 2017.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

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