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Spillovers from the Maturing of China’s Economy

Author

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  • Allan Dizioli
  • Mr. Benjamin L Hunt
  • Wojciech Maliszewski

Abstract

China’s transition to a new growth model continues and the impact has been felt across the globe. Several trends contribute to the ‘maturing’ of China’s economy: i) structural slowing on the convergence path; ii) on-shoring deepening; and iii) demand rebalancing from investment towards consumption. In the short term, financial stress may lead to a cyclical slowdown. This paper discusses and quantifies spillovers to the global economy from these different developments. The analysis is undertaken using the APDMOD and G20MOD, both modules of the IMF’s Flexible System of Global Models. For plausible values of these developments, the overall impact on the global economy is not large. However, the impact on China’s closest trading partners and commodity exporters can be notable.

Suggested Citation

  • Allan Dizioli & Mr. Benjamin L Hunt & Wojciech Maliszewski, 2016. "Spillovers from the Maturing of China’s Economy," IMF Working Papers 2016/212, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2016/212
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Mr. Romain A Duval & Mr. Kevin C Cheng & Kum Hwa Oh & Richa Saraf, 2014. "Trade Integration and Business Cycle Synchronization: A Reappraisal with Focus on Asia," IMF Working Papers 2014/052, International Monetary Fund.
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    4. Allan Dizioli & Mr. Jaime Guajardo & Mr. Vladimir Klyuev & Rui Mano & Mr. Mehdi Raissi, 2016. "Spillovers from China’s Growth Slowdown and Rebalancing to the ASEAN-5 Economies," IMF Working Papers 2016/170, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Patrick Blagrave & Mr. Esteban Vesperoni, 2016. "Spillover Implications of China's Slowdown for International Trade," IMF Spillover Notes 2016/004, International Monetary Fund.
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