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China’s Imports Slowdown: Spillovers, Spillins, and Spillbacks

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  • Mr. Alexei P Kireyev
  • Andrei Leonidov

Abstract

The paper models international spillovers from a hypothetical drop of China’s imports as a result of China’s rebalancing of its growth model. A network-based model used in the paper allows capturing higher round network effects of the shock, which are largely unaccounted for in the existing literature. Such effects include direct spillovers from China on its trading partners, subsequent spillins among them, and spillbacks on China itself. The paper finds that the network effects most likely will be substantial, may amplify initial shock, and change the direction of its propagation. The impact on Asia and Pacific will be the strongest followed by the Middle East and Central Asia. The impact on sub-Saharan Africa would be noticeable only for some countries. Spillovers on Europe, including the Euro area, will be moderate, and spillovers on the Western Hemisphere, including the United States, would be very marginal. Metal and non-fuel commodity exporters may experience the largest negative impact.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Alexei P Kireyev & Andrei Leonidov, 2016. "China’s Imports Slowdown: Spillovers, Spillins, and Spillbacks," IMF Working Papers 2016/051, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2016/051
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Alice Schwenninger, 2018. "La Chine à travers le spectre de la balance des paiements," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03610525, HAL.
    2. Blagrave, Patrick & Vesperoni, Esteban, 2018. "The implications of China’s slowdown for international trade," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 36-47.
    3. Kireyev, A., 2019. "A Network Model of Multilateral Equilibrium Exchange Rates," Journal of the New Economic Association, New Economic Association, vol. 41(1), pages 12-33.
    4. Alexei Kireyev & Andrei Leonidov, 2018. "Network Effects of International Shocks and Spillovers," Networks and Spatial Economics, Springer, vol. 18(4), pages 805-836, December.
    5. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/q2oq3eedv82ephg1u2r8ae2cs is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Leonidov, A., 2017. "About Some Directions of Economic Theory Development," Journal of the New Economic Association, New Economic Association, vol. 34(2), pages 189-192.
    7. INOUE Tomoo & OKIMOTO Tatsuyoshi, 2017. "Measuring the Effects of Commodity Price Shocks on Asian Economies," Discussion papers 17009, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    8. Rui Mano, 2016. "Quantifying the Spillovers from China Rebalancing Using a Multi-Sector Ricardian Trade Model," IMF Working Papers 2016/219, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Gee Hee Hong & Jaewoo Lee & Wei Liao & Dulani Seneviratne, 2017. "China and Asia in Global Trade Slowdown," Journal of International Commerce, Economics and Policy (JICEP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 8(01), pages 1-34, February.
    10. Alice Schwenninger, 2018. "La Chine à travers le spectre de la balance des paiements," Working Papers hal-03610525, HAL.
    11. Jochen Andritzky & Bernhard Kassner & Wolf Heinrich Reuter, 2019. "Propagation of changes in demand through international trade: A case study of China," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 42(4), pages 1259-1285, April.
    12. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/q2oq3eedv82ephg1u2r8ae2cs is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Kireyev, Alexei & Leonidov, Andrei, 2021. "Twin trade shocks: Spillovers from US-China trade tensions," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 167(C), pages 174-188.

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