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International trade transmission channel of a local crisis: a simple model

Author

Listed:
  • Diego Cerdeiro

    (Universidad de Buenos Aires - Universidad de San Andrés)

  • Ariel Wirkierman

    (Universidad de Buenos Aires - Universidad Nacional de La Plata)

Abstract

We propose a linear general interdependence model of the world economy, and use United Nations Statistics Division data to estimate its parameters. This allows us to assess the propagation through the channel of international trade of an exogenous shock to one country's autonomous expenditures, thereby constructing a "vulnerability ranking" for the countries in the sample to an exogenous shock to any of them. The response of the system to a negative shock to the United States autonomous outlays is carried out as an example. Though subject to multiple caveats, these comparative statics results might be useful for policy analysis.

Suggested Citation

  • Diego Cerdeiro & Ariel Wirkierman, 2008. "International trade transmission channel of a local crisis: a simple model," Económica, Instituto de Investigaciones Económicas, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas, Universidad Nacional de La Plata, vol. 0(1-2), pages 87-119, January-D.
    • Handle: RePEc:akh:journl:561
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    File URL: https://revistas.unlp.edu.ar/Economica/article/view/5491/4497
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    Cited by:

    1. Alexei Kireyev & Andrei Leonidov, 2018. "Network Effects of International Shocks and Spillovers," Networks and Spatial Economics, Springer, vol. 18(4), pages 805-836, December.
    2. Mr. Alexei P Kireyev & Andrei Leonidov, 2016. "China’s Imports Slowdown: Spillovers, Spillins, and Spillbacks," IMF Working Papers 2016/051, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Kireyev, Alexei & Leonidov, Andrei, 2021. "Twin trade shocks: Spillovers from US-China trade tensions," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 167(C), pages 174-188.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    World trade multiplier; Linear general interdependence models; Input-Output analysis; Decoupling;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F10 - International Economics - - Trade - - - General
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission

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