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Recent U.S. Labor Force Dynamics: Reversible or not?

Author

Listed:
  • Mr. Ravi Balakrishnan
  • Mai Dao
  • Mr. Juan Sole
  • Jeremy Zook

Abstract

The U.S. labor force participation rate (LFPR) fell dramatically following the Great Recession and has yet to start recovering. A key question is how much of the post-2007 decline is reversible, something which is central to the policy debate. The key finding of this paper is that while around ¼–? of the post-2007 decline is reversible, the LFPR will continue to decline given population aging. This paper’s measure of the “employment gap” also suggests that labor market slack remains and will only decline gradually, pointing to a still important role for stimulative macro-economic policies to help reach full employment. In addition, given the continued downward pressure on the LFPR, labor supply measures will be an essential component of the strategy to boost potential growth. Finally, stimulative macroeconomic and labor supply policies should also help reduce the scope for further hysteresis effects to develop (e.g., loss of skills, discouragement).

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Ravi Balakrishnan & Mai Dao & Mr. Juan Sole & Jeremy Zook, 2015. "Recent U.S. Labor Force Dynamics: Reversible or not?," IMF Working Papers 2015/076, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2015/076
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Svetlana ZAHAROV, 2017. "Educational Structure Of Labour Market In The Republic Of Moldova," THE YEARBOOK OF THE "GH. ZANE" INSTITUTE OF ECONOMIC RESEARCHES, Gheorghe Zane Institute for Economic and Social Research ( from THE ROMANIAN ACADEMY, JASSY BRANCH), vol. 26(1), pages 42-50.
    2. José Manuel Montero & Ana Regil, 2015. "La tasa de actividad en España: resistencia cíclica, determinantes y perspectivas futuras," Occasional Papers 1502, Banco de España.

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