IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/imf/imfwpa/2015-076.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Recent U.S. Labor Force Dynamics: Reversible or not?

Author

Listed:
  • Mr. Ravi Balakrishnan
  • Mai Dao
  • Mr. Juan Sole
  • Jeremy Zook

Abstract

The U.S. labor force participation rate (LFPR) fell dramatically following the Great Recession and has yet to start recovering. A key question is how much of the post-2007 decline is reversible, something which is central to the policy debate. The key finding of this paper is that while around ¼–? of the post-2007 decline is reversible, the LFPR will continue to decline given population aging. This paper’s measure of the “employment gap” also suggests that labor market slack remains and will only decline gradually, pointing to a still important role for stimulative macro-economic policies to help reach full employment. In addition, given the continued downward pressure on the LFPR, labor supply measures will be an essential component of the strategy to boost potential growth. Finally, stimulative macroeconomic and labor supply policies should also help reduce the scope for further hysteresis effects to develop (e.g., loss of skills, discouragement).

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Ravi Balakrishnan & Mai Dao & Mr. Juan Sole & Jeremy Zook, 2015. "Recent U.S. Labor Force Dynamics: Reversible or not?," IMF Working Papers 2015/076, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2015/076
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=42832
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Congressional Budget Office, 2013. "The Economic Impact of S. 744, the Border Security, Economic Opportunity, and Immigration Modernization Act," Reports 44346, Congressional Budget Office.
    2. Congressional Budget Office, 2014. "The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2014 to 2024," Reports 45010, Congressional Budget Office.
    3. Christopher J. Erceg & Andrew T. Levin, 2014. "Labor Force Participation and Monetary Policy in the Wake of the Great Recession," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 46(S2), pages 3-49, October.
    4. Congressional Budget Office, 2014. "An Update to the Budget and Economic Outlook: 2014 to 2024," Reports 45653, Congressional Budget Office.
    5. Stephanie Aaronson & Bruce Fallick & Andrew Figura & Jonathan Pingle & William Wascher, 2006. "The Recent Decline in the Labor Force Participation Rate and Its Implications for Potential Labor Supply," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 37(1), pages 69-154.
    6. Congressional Budget Office, 2013. "The Economic Impact of S. 744, the Border Security, Economic Opportunity, and Immigration Modernization Act," Reports 44346, Congressional Budget Office.
    7. Julia Dennett & Alicia Sasser Modestino, 2013. "Uncertain futures?: youth attachment to the labor market in the United States and New England," New England Public Policy Center Research Report 13-3, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    8. Congressional Budget Office, 2014. "The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2014 to 2024," Reports 45010, Congressional Budget Office.
    9. Congressional Budget Office, 2014. "An Update to the Budget and Economic Outlook: 2014 to 2024," Reports 45653, Congressional Budget Office.
    10. Timothy J. Bartik, 1991. "Who Benefits from State and Local Economic Development Policies?," Books from Upjohn Press, W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research, number wbsle.
    11. Congressional Budget Office, 2014. "An Update to the Budget and Economic Outlook: 2014 to 2024," Reports 45653, Congressional Budget Office.
    12. Stephanie Aaronson & Tomaz Cajner & Bruce Fallick & Felix Galbis-Reig & Christopher Smith & William Wascher, 2014. "Labor Force Participation: Recent Developments and Future Prospects," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 45(2 (Fall)), pages 197-275.
    13. Congressional Budget Office, 2014. "The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2014 to 2024," Reports 45010, Congressional Budget Office.
    14. Congressional Budget Office, 2013. "The Economic Impact of S. 744, the Border Security, Economic Opportunity, and Immigration Modernization Act," Reports 44346, Congressional Budget Office.
    15. Congressional Budget Office, 2014. "The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2014 to 2024," Reports 45010, Congressional Budget Office.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. José Manuel Montero & Ana Regil, 2015. "La tasa de actividad en España: resistencia cíclica, determinantes y perspectivas futuras," Occasional Papers 1502, Banco de España.
    2. Svetlana ZAHAROV, 2017. "Educational Structure Of Labour Market In The Republic Of Moldova," THE YEARBOOK OF THE "GH. ZANE" INSTITUTE OF ECONOMIC RESEARCHES, Gheorghe Zane Institute for Economic and Social Research ( from THE ROMANIAN ACADEMY, JASSY BRANCH), vol. 26(1), pages 42-50.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Stephanie Aaronson & Tomaz Cajner & Bruce Fallick & Felix Galbis-Reig & Christopher Smith & William Wascher, 2014. "Labor Force Participation: Recent Developments and Future Prospects," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 45(2 (Fall)), pages 197-275.
    2. Troy Davig & Michael Redmond, 2014. "Accounting for changes in the U.S. budget deficit," Macro Bulletin, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 1-2, December.
    3. Helen Levy & Thomas Buchmueller & Sayeh Nikpay, 2015. "The Effect of Health Reform on Retirement," Working Papers wp329, University of Michigan, Michigan Retirement Research Center.
    4. Anirvan Banerji & Lakshman Achuthan, 2015. "The “Subpar” Recovery: A Long-standing Misunderstanding," Challenge, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 58(2), pages 139-148, March.
    5. R. Vincent Pohl, 2018. "Medicaid And The Labor Supply Of Single Mothers: Implications For Health Care Reform," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 59(3), pages 1283-1313, August.
    6. Sylvain Leduc & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2014. "Does slower growth imply lower interest rates?," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    7. John G. Fernald, 2015. "Productivity and Potential Output before, during, and after the Great Recession," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 29(1), pages 1-51.
    8. Robert G Murphy & Adam Rohde, 2018. "Rational Bias in Inflation Expectations," Eastern Economic Journal, Palgrave Macmillan;Eastern Economic Association, vol. 44(1), pages 153-171, January.
    9. Rodrigo Vergara & Elías Albagli, 2015. "Tasas de Interés de Largo Plazo en Economías Desarrolladas: Tendencias Recientes e Implicancias de Política Monetaria en Chile," Economic Policy Papers Central Bank of Chile 52, Central Bank of Chile.
    10. John Gibson, 2015. "Expanded Social Protection May Do More Harm Than Good: A Pessimistic Review," Asia and the Pacific Policy Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 2(3), pages 652-659, September.
    11. Francesca Castelli & Damien Moore & Gabriel Ehrlich & Jeffrey Perry, 2014. "Modeling the Budgetary Costs of FHA's Single Family Mortgage Insurance: Working Paper 2014-05," Working Papers 45711, Congressional Budget Office.
    12. Georgia Kaplanoglou & Vassilis T. Rapanos & Ioanna C. Bardakas, 2015. "Does Fairness Matter for the Success of Fiscal Consolidation?," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 68(2), pages 197-219, May.
    13. William R. Cline, 2014. "Estimates of Fundamental Equilibrium Exchange Rates, November 2014," Policy Briefs PB14-25, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
    14. Matthew Hill & Nicole Maestas & Kathleen J. Mullen, 2014. "Source of Health Insurance Coverage and Employment Survival Among Newly Disabled Workers Evidence from the Health and Retirement Study," Working Papers WR-1040, RAND Corporation.
    15. Gelb, Betsy DuBois & Longacre, Teri Elkins, 2014. "Marketing retirement—or staying on the job," Business Horizons, Elsevier, vol. 57(5), pages 627-635.
    16. Stephanie Lo & Kenneth Rogoff, 2015. "Secular stagnation, debt overhang and other rationales for sluggish growth, six years on," BIS Working Papers 482, Bank for International Settlements.
    17. Steven P. Cassou & Hedieh Shadmani & Jesús Vázquez, 2017. "Fiscal policy asymmetries and the sustainability of US government debt revisited," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 53(3), pages 1193-1215, November.
    18. Jane G. Gravelle & Sean Lowry, 2016. "The Affordable Care Act, Labor Supply, and Social Welfare," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association;National Tax Journal, vol. 69(4), pages 863-882, December.
    19. Laura J. Owen, 2017. "Part-time Employment and Health Insurance Reform: What Can Massachusetts Tell Us about the Affordable Care Act?," Review of Social Sciences, LAR Center Press, vol. 2(3), pages 1-8, March.
    20. Courtney C. Coile, 2015. "Economic Determinants Of Workers’ Retirement Decisions," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(4), pages 830-853, September.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2015/076. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Akshay Modi (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/imfffus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.