IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/imf/imfwpa/2014-103.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

How to Capture Macro-Financial Spillover Effects in Stress Tests?

Author

Listed:
  • Mr. Heiko Hesse
  • Mr. Ferhan Salman
  • Mr. Christian Schmieder

Abstract

One of the challenges of financial stability analysis and bank stress testing is how to establish scenarios with meaningful macro-financial linkages, i.e., taking into account spillover effects and other forms of contagion. We come up with an approach to simulate the potential impact of spillover effects based on the “traditional” design of macro-economic stress tests. Specifically, we examine spillover effects observed during the financial crisis and simulate their impact on banks’ liquidity and capital positions. The outcome suggests that spillover effects have a highly non-linear impact on bank soundness, both in terms of liquidity and solvency.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Heiko Hesse & Mr. Ferhan Salman & Mr. Christian Schmieder, 2014. "How to Capture Macro-Financial Spillover Effects in Stress Tests?," IMF Working Papers 2014/103, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2014/103
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=41644
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. David Aikman & Piergiorgio Alessandri & Bruno Eklund & Prasanna Gai & Sujit Kapadia & Elizabeth Martin & Nada Mora & Gabriel Sterne & Matthew Willison, 2011. "Funding Liquidity Risk in a Quantitative Model of Systemic Stability," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Rodrigo Alfaro (ed.),Financial Stability, Monetary Policy, and Central Banking, edition 1, volume 15, chapter 12, pages 371-410, Central Bank of Chile.
    2. Nathaniel Frank & Heiko Hesse, 2009. "Financial Spillovers to Emerging Markets during the Global Financial Crisis," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 59(6), pages 507-521, December.
    3. Mr. Christian Schmieder & Mr. Tidiane Kinda & Mr. Nassim N. Taleb & Ms. Elena Loukoianova & Mr. Elie Canetti, 2012. "A New Heuristic Measure of Fragility and Tail Risks: Application to Stress Testing," IMF Working Papers 2012/216, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Borio, Claudio & Drehmann, Mathias & Tsatsaronis, Kostas, 2014. "Stress-testing macro stress testing: Does it live up to expectations?," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 12(C), pages 3-15.
    5. Eric Wong & Cho-Hoi Hui, 2009. "A Liquidity Risk Stress-Testing Framework with Interaction between Market and Credit Risks," Working Papers 0906, Hong Kong Monetary Authority.
    6. Mr. Christian Schmieder & Maher Hasan & Mr. Claus Puhr, 2011. "Next Generation Balance Sheet Stress Testing," IMF Working Papers 2011/083, International Monetary Fund.
    7. International Monetary Fund, 2011. "Euro Area Policies: Spillover Report for the 2011 Article IV Consultation and Selected Issues," IMF Staff Country Reports 2011/185, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Mr. Daniel C Hardy & Mr. Christian Schmieder, 2013. "Rules of Thumb for Bank Solvency Stress Testing," IMF Working Papers 2013/232, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Miss Liliana B Schumacher & Mr. Theodore M. Barnhill, 2011. "Modeling Correlated Systemic Liquidity and Solvency Risks in a Financial Environment with Incomplete Information," IMF Working Papers 2011/263, International Monetary Fund.
    10. International Monetary Fund, 2013. "Euro Area Policies: 2013 Article IV Consultation," IMF Staff Country Reports 2013/231, International Monetary Fund.
    11. Carlos Caceres & D. Filiz Unsal, 2013. "Sovereign Spreads and Contagion Risks in Asia," Asian Economic Journal, East Asian Economic Association, vol. 27(3), pages 219-243, September.
    12. International Monetary Fund, 2012. "Euro Area Policies: 2012 Article IV Consultation: Selected Issues Paper," IMF Staff Country Reports 2012/182, International Monetary Fund.
    13. Antonella Foglia, 2009. "Stress Testing Credit Risk: A Survey of Authorities' Aproaches," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 5(3), pages 9-45, September.
    14. Mr. Heiko Hesse & Nathaniel Frank & Ms. Brenda Gonzalez-Hermosillo, 2008. "Transmission of Liquidity Shocks: Evidence from the 2007 Subprime Crisis," IMF Working Papers 2008/200, International Monetary Fund.
    15. Bayoumi, Tamim & Vitek, Francis, 2011. "Spillovers from the Euro Area Sovereign Debt Crisis: A Macroeconometric Model Based Analysis," CEPR Discussion Papers 8497, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    16. Engle, Robert, 2002. "Dynamic Conditional Correlation: A Simple Class of Multivariate Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(3), pages 339-350, July.
    17. Andreas Jobst & Ms. Li L Ong & Mr. Christian Schmieder, 2013. "A Framework for Macroprudential Bank Solvency Stress Testing: Application to S-25 and Other G-20 Country FSAPs," IMF Working Papers 2013/068, International Monetary Fund.
    18. Jan Willem van den End, 2010. "Liquidity Stress-Tester: A Model for Stress-testing Banks' Liquidity Risk," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo, vol. 56(1), pages 38-69, March.
    19. Mr. Claus Puhr & Mr. Andre O Santos & Mr. Christian Schmieder & Salih N. Neftci & Mr. Benjamin Neudorfer & Mr. Stefan W. Schmitz & Mr. Heiko Hesse, 2012. "Next Generation System-Wide Liquidity Stress Testing," IMF Working Papers 2012/003, International Monetary Fund.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Noel, Dorian M. & Bangwayo-Skeete, Prosper F. & Brei, Michael & Robinson, Justin, 2021. "Sovereign risk spill-overs in the banking sectors of Central America and the Caribbean," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    2. Brana, Sophie & Prat, Stéphanie, 2016. "The effects of global excess liquidity on emerging stock market returns: Evidence from a panel threshold model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 52(PA), pages 26-34.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Giuseppe Montesi & Giovanni Papiro, 2018. "Bank Stress Testing: A Stochastic Simulation Framework to Assess Banks’ Financial Fragility †," Risks, MDPI, vol. 6(3), pages 1-54, August.
    2. Mr. Daniel C Hardy & Mr. Christian Schmieder, 2013. "Rules of Thumb for Bank Solvency Stress Testing," IMF Working Papers 2013/232, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Waelchli Boris, 2016. "A proximity based macro stress testing framework," Dependence Modeling, De Gruyter, vol. 4(1), pages 1-26, November.
    4. Office of Financial Research (ed.), 2012. "Office of Financial Research 2012 Annual Report," Reports, Office of Financial Research, US Department of the Treasury, number 12-1, May.
    5. Mr. Dimitri G Demekas, 2015. "Designing Effective Macroprudential Stress Tests: Progress So Far and the Way Forward," IMF Working Papers 2015/146, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Borio, Claudio & Drehmann, Mathias & Tsatsaronis, Kostas, 2014. "Stress-testing macro stress testing: Does it live up to expectations?," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 12(C), pages 3-15.
    7. Ventsislav Hristev, 2014. "Bank Stress-Testing Lessons from Central, Eastern and Southeastern European Countries," Economic Alternatives, University of National and World Economy, Sofia, Bulgaria, issue 4, pages 92-109, December.
    8. Ferrari, Stijn & Van Roy, Patrick & Vespro, Cristina, 2021. "Sensitivity of credit risk stress test results: Modelling issues with an application to Belgium," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    9. Adam Gersl & Petr Jakubik & Tomas Konecny & Jakub Seidler, 2013. "Dynamic Stress Testing: The Framework for Assessing the Resilience of the Banking Sector Used by the Czech National Bank," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 63(6), pages 505-536, December.
    10. Hana Hejlová & Zlatuše Komárková & Marek Rusnák, . "A Liquidity Risk Stress-Testing Framework with Basel Liquidity Standards," Prague Economic Papers, University of Economics, Prague, vol. 0.
    11. Georgios Papadopoulos & Dionysios Chionis & Nikolaos P. Rachaniotis, 2018. "Macro-financial linkages during tranquil and crisis periods: evidence from stressed economies," Risk Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 20(2), pages 142-166, May.
    12. Mr. Eugenio M Cerutti & Mr. Christian Schmieder, 2012. "The Need for "Un-consolidating" Consolidated Banks' Stress Tests," IMF Working Papers 2012/288, International Monetary Fund.
    13. Hana Hejlová & Zlatuše Komárková & Marek Rusnák, 2020. "A Liquidity Risk Stress-Testing Framework with Basel Liquidity Standards," Prague Economic Papers, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2020(3), pages 251-273.
    14. International Monetary Fund, 2013. "European Union: Publication of Financial Sector Assessment Program Documentation—Technical Note on Stress Testing of Banks," IMF Staff Country Reports 2013/068, International Monetary Fund.
    15. Mr. Christian Schmieder & Mr. Tidiane Kinda & Mr. Nassim N. Taleb & Ms. Elena Loukoianova & Mr. Elie Canetti, 2012. "A New Heuristic Measure of Fragility and Tail Risks: Application to Stress Testing," IMF Working Papers 2012/216, International Monetary Fund.
    16. Busch, Ramona & Koziol, Philipp & Mitrovic, Marc, 2015. "Many a little makes a mickle: Macro portfolio stress test for small and medium-sized German banks," Discussion Papers 23/2015, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    17. Mr. Rodolfo Maino & Mr. Kalin I Tintchev, 2012. "From Stress to Costress: Stress Testing Interconnected Banking Systems," IMF Working Papers 2012/053, International Monetary Fund.
    18. George Papadopoulos & Savas Papadopoulos & Thomas Sager, 2016. "Credit risk stress testing for EU15 banks: a model combination approach," Working Papers 203, Bank of Greece.
    19. International Monetary Fund, 2017. "Luxembourg: Financial Sector Assessment Program: Technical Note-Risk Analysis," IMF Staff Country Reports 2017/261, International Monetary Fund.
    20. Busch, Ramona & Koziol, Philipp & Mitrovic, Marc, 2018. "Many a little makes a mickle: Stress testing small and medium-sized German banks," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 237-253.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2014/103. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Akshay Modi (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/imfffus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.