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Export Spillovers from Global Shocks for the Middle East and Central Asia

Author

Listed:
  • Mr. Alberto Behar
  • Jaime Espinosa-Bowen

Abstract

This paper quantifies the effect of realized and potential global growth disappointments on export volumes from the Middle East, North Africa, the Caucasus, and Central Asia. Estimates of export elasticities with respect to trading partner GDP indicate non-oil export volumes are relatively responsive while service exports are less responsive. Downward revisions to global GDP growth for 2011–14 have impeded export performance, and the possibility of disappointing GDP growth in Europe and emerging markets presents further downside risks for exports. The Maghreb countries are particularly sensitive to developments in Europe, while CCA countries are more susceptible to growth in the BRICS.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Alberto Behar & Jaime Espinosa-Bowen, 2014. "Export Spillovers from Global Shocks for the Middle East and Central Asia," IMF Working Papers 2014/080, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2014/080
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mr. Yasser Abdih & Mr. Ralph Chami & Mr. Christian H Ebeke & Mr. Adolfo Barajas, 2012. "Remittances Channel and Fiscal Impact in the Middle East, North Africa, and Central Asia," IMF Working Papers 2012/104, International Monetary Fund.
    2. James E. Anderson & Eric van Wincoop, 2003. "Gravity with Gravitas: A Solution to the Border Puzzle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 170-192, March.
    3. Manuel Arellano & Stephen Bond, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 58(2), pages 277-297.
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