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Trade Linkages, Balance Sheets, and Spillovers: The Germany-Central European Supply Chain

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  • Mr. Selim A Elekdag
  • Mr. Dirk V Muir

Abstract

Germany and the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, and Slovakia (the CE4) have been in a process of deepening economic integration which has lead to the development of a dynamic supply chain within Europe—the Germany-Central European Supply Chain (GCESC). Model-based simulations suggest two key policy implications: First, as a reflection of strengthening trade linkages, German fiscal spillovers to the CE4 and more broadly to the rest of the euro area, have increased over time, but are still relatively small. This is explained by the supply chain nature of trade integration: final demand in Germany is not necessarily the main determinant of CE4 exports to Germany. Second, increased trade openness in both Germany and the CE4 implies a greater exposure of the GCESC to global shocks. However, owing to its strong fundamentals—including sound balance sheets and its safe haven status— Germany plays the role of a regional anchor of stability by better absorbing shocks from other trading partners instead of amplifying their transmission across the GCESC.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Selim A Elekdag & Mr. Dirk V Muir, 2013. "Trade Linkages, Balance Sheets, and Spillovers: The Germany-Central European Supply Chain," IMF Working Papers 2013/210, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2013/210
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Mr. Derek Anderson & Mr. Benjamin L Hunt & Mika Kortelainen & Mr. Michael Kumhof & Mr. Douglas Laxton & Mr. Dirk V Muir & Susanna Mursula & Stephen Snudden, 2013. "Getting to Know GIMF: The Simulation Properties of the Global Integrated Monetary and Fiscal Model," IMF Working Papers 2013/055, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Mr. Sebastian Weber & Anna Ivanova, 2011. "Do Fiscal Spillovers Matter?," IMF Working Papers 2011/211, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Selim Elekdag & René Lalonde & Douglas Laxton & Dirk Muir & Paolo Pesenti, 2008. "Oil Price Movements and the Global Economy: A Model-Based Assessment," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 55(2), pages 297-311, June.
    4. Mr. Michael Kumhof & Mr. Dirk V Muir, 2012. "Oil and the World Economy: Some Possible Futures," IMF Working Papers 2012/256, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Elekdag, Selim & Tchakarov, Ivan, 2007. "Balance sheets, exchange rate policy, and welfare," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(12), pages 3986-4015, December.
    6. Mr. Douglas Laxton & Susanna Mursula & Mr. Michael Kumhof & Mr. Dirk V Muir, 2010. "The Global Integrated Monetary and Fiscal Model (GIMF) – Theoretical Structure," IMF Working Papers 2010/034, International Monetary Fund.
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    Cited by:

    1. Wenlang Zhang & Gaofeng Han & Steven Chan, 2014. "How Strong are the Linkages between Real Estate and Other Sectors in China?," Working Papers 112014, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
    2. Matteo Bugamelli & Silvia Fabiani & Stefano Federico & Alberto Felettigh & Claire Giordano & Andrea Linarello, 2018. "Back on Track? A Macro–Micro Narrative of Italian Exports," Italian Economic Journal: A Continuation of Rivista Italiana degli Economisti and Giornale degli Economisti, Springer;Società Italiana degli Economisti (Italian Economic Association), vol. 4(1), pages 1-31, March.
    3. Ewa Cieślik, 2022. "A New Era Is Beginning in Central and Eastern Europe: Information and Communication Technology Services Exceed Manufacturing in the Global Production Chain," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 13(4), pages 2607-2639, December.
    4. Mr. Selim A Elekdag & Mr. Dirk V Muir, 2014. "Das Public Kapital: How Much Would Higher German Public Investment Help Germany and the Euro Area?," IMF Working Papers 2014/227, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Slavo Radosevic & Katerina Ciampi Stancova, 2018. "Internationalising Smart Specialisation: Assessment and Issues in the Case of EU New Member States," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 9(1), pages 263-293, March.
    6. Markus Eller & Martin Feldkircher & Florian Huber, 2017. "How would a fiscal shock in Germany affect other European countries? Evidence from a Bayesian GVAR model with sign restrictions," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 1, pages 54-77.
    7. Elekdag, Selim & Muir, Dirk & Wu, Yiqun, 2015. "Trade linkages, balance sheets, and spillovers: The Germany-Central European Supply Chain," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 374-387.
    8. Chan, Steven & Han, Gaofeng & Zhang, Wenlang, 2016. "How strong are the linkages between real estate and other sectors in China?," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 52-72.

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