IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/imf/imfwpa/2012-178.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Intertwined Sovereign and Bank Solvencies in a Model of Self-Fulfilling Crisis

Author

Listed:
  • Gustavo Adler

Abstract

Large fiscal financing needs, both in advanced and emerging market economies, have often been met by borrowing heavily from domestic banks. As public debt approached sustainability limits in a number of countries, however, high bank exposure to sovereign risk created a fragile inter-dependence between fiscal and bank solvency. This paper presents a simple model of twin (sovereign and banking) crisis that stresses how this interdependence creates conditions conducive to a self-fulfilling crisis.

Suggested Citation

  • Gustavo Adler, 2012. "Intertwined Sovereign and Bank Solvencies in a Model of Self-Fulfilling Crisis," IMF Working Papers 2012/178, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2012/178
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=26047
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kalemli-Ozcan, Sebnem & Papaioannou, Elias & Perri, Fabrizio, 2013. "Global banks and crisis transmission," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(2), pages 495-510.
    2. Ueda, Kozo, 2012. "Banking globalization and international business cycles: Cross-border chained credit contracts and financial accelerators," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(1), pages 1-16.
    3. Juan Carlos Conesa & Timothy J. Kehoe, 2017. "Gambling for redemption and self-fulfilling debt crises," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 64(4), pages 707-740, December.
    4. Afonso S. Bevilaqua & Márcio Gomes Pinto Garcia, 1999. "Banks, domestic debt intermediation and confidence crises: the recent Brazilian experience," Textos para discussão 407, Department of Economics PUC-Rio (Brazil).
    5. Flood, Robert P. & Garber, Peter M. & Kramer, Charles, 1996. "Collapsing exchange rate regimes: Another linear example," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3-4), pages 223-234, November.
    6. Homi Kharas & Brian Pinto & Sergei Ulatov, 2001. "An Analysis of Russia's 1998 Meltdown: Fundamentals and Market Signals," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 32(1), pages 1-68.
    7. Douglas W. Diamond, 1984. "Financial Intermediation and Delegated Monitoring," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 51(3), pages 393-414.
    8. Allen, Franklin, 1990. "The market for information and the origin of financial intermediation," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 3-30, March.
    9. Cristina Arellano & Juan Carlos Conesa & Timothy J. Kehoe, 2012. "Chronic sovereign debt crises in the Eurozone, 2010-2012," Economic Policy Paper 12-4, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    10. Kollmann, Robert & Enders, Zeno & Müller, Gernot J., 2011. "Global banking and international business cycles," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 55(3), pages 407-426, April.
    11. Mr. Bennett W Sutton & Mr. Luis Catão, 2002. "Sovereign Defaults: The Role of Volatility," IMF Working Papers 2002/149, International Monetary Fund.
    12. Gunes Kamber & Christoph Thoenissen, 2011. "Financial intermediation and the internationalbusiness cycle: The case of small countries with big banks," CAMA Working Papers 2011-22, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    13. Carlos A. Rodríguez, 1992. "Financial Reforms in Latin America: The Cases of Argentina, Chile and Uruguay," CEMA Working Papers: Serie Documentos de Trabajo. 84, Universidad del CEMA.
    14. Mr. Steven Riess Weisbrod & Ms. Liliana Rojas-Suárez, 1994. "Financial Market Fragilities in Latin America: From Banking Crisis Resolution to Current Policy Challenges," IMF Working Papers 1994/117, International Monetary Fund.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Mr. Serkan Arslanalp & Mr. Takahiro Tsuda, 2012. "Tracking Global Demand for Advanced Economy Sovereign Debt," IMF Working Papers 2012/284, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Dungey, Mardi & Gajurel, Dinesh, 2015. "Contagion and banking crisis – International evidence for 2007–2009," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 271-283.
    3. Lino Sau, 2015. "Debt deflation worries: a restatement," Review of Keynesian Economics, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 3(3), pages 279-294, July.
    4. Lawson, Cornelia & Soós,Sándor, 2014. "A Thematic Mobility Measure for Econometric Analysis," Department of Economics and Statistics Cognetti de Martiis. Working Papers 201408, University of Turin.
    5. Nedelcu Monica Letitia, 2013. "The Liquidity of the Financial System and the Sovereign Debt Crisis in Europe – Is There a Solution?," Ovidius University Annals, Economic Sciences Series, Ovidius University of Constantza, Faculty of Economic Sciences, vol. 0(1), pages 238-243, May.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Adler, Gustavo & Lizarazo, Sandra, 2015. "Intertwined sovereign and bank solvencies in a simple model of self-fulfilling crisis," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 428-448.
    2. Luca Guerrieri & Matteo Iacoviello & Raoul Minetti, 2013. "Banks, Sovereign Debt, and the International Transmission of Business Cycles," NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 9(1), pages 181-213.
    3. Auray, Stéphane & Eyquem, Aurélien & Ma, Xiaofei, 2018. "Banks, sovereign risk and unconventional monetary policies," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 153-171.
    4. Gunes Kamber & Christoph Thoenissen, 2011. "Financial intermediation and the internationalbusiness cycle: The case of small countries with big banks," CAMA Working Papers 2011-22, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    5. Güneş Kamber & Christoph Thoenissen, 2013. "Financial Exposure and the International Transmission of Financial Shocks," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 45(s2), pages 127-158, December.
    6. Matthieu Darracq Paries, 2018. "Financial frictions and monetary policy conduct," Erudite Ph.D Dissertations, Erudite, number ph18-01 edited by Ferhat Mihoubi.
    7. Toyoichiro Shirota, 2013. "What is the Major Determinant of Credit Flows through Cross-Border Banking?," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 13-E-5, Bank of Japan.
    8. An, Jiyoun & Kim, Kyunghun & Pyun, Ju Hyun, 2021. "Does debt market integration amplify the international transmission of business cycles during financial crises?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    9. Kopoin, Alexandre, 2015. "Cross-border Banking, Spillover Effects and International Business Cycles," MPRA Paper 65515, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 06 Apr 2015.
    10. Philippe Bacchetta & Eric van Wincoop, 2016. "The Great Recession: A Self-Fulfilling Global Panic," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 8(4), pages 177-198, October.
    11. Da Rin, Marco & Hellmann, Thomas, 2002. "Banks as Catalysts for Industrialization," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 11(4), pages 366-397, October.
    12. Michael Brei & Carlos Winograd, 2018. "Credit risk of foreign bank branches and subsidiaries in Argentina and Uruguay," EconomiX Working Papers 2018-12, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    13. Lee, Hyun-Hoon & Park, Cyn-Young & Pyun, Ju Hyun, 2024. "International business cycle synchronization: A synthetic assessment," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    14. Régis Breton, 2003. "A Smoke Screen Theory of Financial Intermediation," Post-Print halshs-00257188, HAL.
    15. Olivier Accominotti & Delio Lucena‐Piquero & Stefano Ugolini, 2021. "The origination and distribution of money market instruments: sterling bills of exchange during the first globalization," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 74(4), pages 892-921, November.
    16. JEAN-CHRISTOPHE POUTINEAU & GAUTHIER Vermandel, 2013. "Integration Bancaire Et Conjoncture Macroeconomique Dans Une Union Monetaire Heterogene: The Macroeconomic Consequences Of Banking Integration In An Heterogenous Monetary Union," Brussels Economic Review, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles, vol. 56(3-4), pages 241-260.
    17. Jae Shim, 2016. "Financial Frictions in the Small Open Economy," Department of Economics Working Papers 50/16, University of Bath, Department of Economics.
    18. Mark Egan & Stefan Lewellen & Adi Sunderam, 2017. "The Cross Section of Bank Value," NBER Working Papers 23291, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. Alexandra Born & Zeno Enders, 2019. "Global Banking, Trade, and the International Transmission of the Great Recession," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 129(623), pages 2691-2721.
    20. Òscar Jordà & Moritz Schularick & Alan M. Taylor & Felix Ward, 2019. "Global Financial Cycles and Risk Premiums," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 67(1), pages 109-150, March.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2012/178. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Akshay Modi (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/imfffus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.