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Banks, Domestic debt intermediation and confidence crises: the recent brazilian experience

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  • Afonso S. Bevilaqua
  • Márcio G. P. Garcia

Abstract

This paper examines the recent evolution of the Brazilian public domestic debt and interprets it in light of the confidence crisis literature. The analysis of the recent developments in the Brazilian public domestic debt market shows that the likelihood of a default must not be assessed only using simple summary aggregate measures of public domestic debt size and maturity, but must also consider other structural aspects. Our analysis emphasizes the two main pillars of the Brazilian public domestic debt market: home-bias and the role of the banking sector in intermediating the debt. Evidence from yields of a “perfectly” indexed bond shows that the rollover premium was very small when the devaluation occurred, and is still fairly small by October, 1999, indicating that the rollover of the public domestic debt is not, so far, a serious problem. Positive prospects for the public domestic debt market will depend, however, on the Brazilian government maintaining the current fiscal austerity program. JEL Classification: F32; F34; G21.

Suggested Citation

  • Afonso S. Bevilaqua & Márcio G. P. Garcia, 2002. "Banks, Domestic debt intermediation and confidence crises: the recent brazilian experience," Brazilian Journal of Political Economy, Center of Political Economy, vol. 22(4), pages 651-669.
    • Handle: RePEc:ekm:repojs:v:22:y:2002:i:4:p:651-669:id:957
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Garcia, Marcio G. P., 1996. "Avoiding some costs of inflation and crawling toward hyperinflation: The case of the Brazilian domestic currency substitute," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 139-159, October.
    2. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 1996. "Foundations of International Macroeconomics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262150476, April.
    3. Guillermo Calvo & Mervyn King (ed.), 1998. "The Debt Burden and its Consequences for Monetary Policy," International Economic Association Series, Palgrave Macmillan, number 978-1-349-26077-5.
    4. Calvo, Guillermo A. & Mendoza, Enrique G., 1996. "Mexico's balance-of-payments crisis: a chronicle of a death foretold," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3-4), pages 235-264, November.
    5. Cysne, Rubens Penha, 1993. "Imposto inflacionário e transferências inflacionárias no Brasil," FGV EPGE Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 219, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil).
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    Cited by:

    1. Ilan Goldfajn & Katherine Hennings & Hélio Mori, 2003. "Brazil’s Financial System: Resilience to Shocks, no Currency Substitution, but Struggling to Promote Growth," Working Papers Series 75, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    2. Fausto Hernández-Trillo & Ricardo Smith-Ramírez, 2009. "Credit Ratings in the Presence of Bailout: The Case of Mexican Subnational Government Debt," Economía Journal, The Latin American and Caribbean Economic Association - LACEA, vol. 0(Fall 2009), pages 45-79, August.
    3. Raquel de F. Oliveira & Rafael F. Schiozer & Lucas A. B. de C. Barros, 2011. "Too Big to Fail Perception by Depositors: an empirical investigation," Working Papers Series 233, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    4. Gustavo Adler, 2012. "Intertwined Sovereign and Bank Solvencies in a Model of Self-Fulfilling Crisis," IMF Working Papers 2012/178, International Monetary Fund.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Banks; Public Debt; Currency Crises; Brazilian Economy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E65 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Studies of Particular Policy Episodes
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt

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