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Global Food Price Inflation and Policy Responses in Central Asia

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  • International Monetary Fund

Abstract

This paper examines the implications of elevated global food prices for inflation in select Central Asian economies - Kazakhstan, the Kyrgyz Republic, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan. The findings suggest that global food inflation has significant short-run effects that build over time. Inflation outcomes simulated under alternative global wheat price assumptions underscore these vulnerabilities, and suggest that sustained administrative measures are unlikely to prove effective. In line with structural economic features, the interest rate channel of monetary policy is found to be limited, arguing for a broad policy strategy to control more expansive inflationary pressures. Looking ahead, measures to enhance supply responses, deepen domestic financial markets, develop adequate social safety nets, and increase central bank independence are warranted.

Suggested Citation

  • International Monetary Fund, 2012. "Global Food Price Inflation and Policy Responses in Central Asia," IMF Working Papers 2012/086, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2012/086
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    Cited by:

    1. Mr. Marco Airaudo & Mr. Edward F Buffie & Luis-Felipe Zanna, 2016. "Inflation Targeting and Exchange Rate Management In Less Developed Countries," IMF Working Papers 2016/055, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Madeeha Qureshi & Ejaz Ghani & Musleh-ud Din & Usman Qadir, 2019. "Vulnerability in Food Supply and Food Access—Evidence from ECO Region," PIDE-Working Papers 2019:171, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics.
    3. Buffie, Edward F. & Airaudo, M. & Zanna, Felipe, 2018. "Inflation targeting and exchange rate management in less developed countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 159-184.
    4. World Bank, 2014. "Kyrgyz Republic Public Expenditure Review Policy Notes : Strategic Setting," World Bank Publications - Reports 19310, The World Bank Group.
    5. MacDonald, Stephen, 2012. "Economic Policy and Cotton in Uzbekistan," MPRA Paper 70882, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Shikha Jha & P.V. Srinivasan, 2014. "Food price inflation, growth and poverty," Chapters, in: Raghbendra Jha & Raghav Gaiha & Anil B. Deolalikar (ed.), Handbook on Food, chapter 4, pages 72-99, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    7. World Bank Group, 2015. "Kyrgyz Republic," World Bank Publications - Reports 22957, The World Bank Group.
    8. Misati, Roseline Nyakerario & Munene, Olive, 2015. "Second Round Effects And Pass-Through Of Food Prices To Inflation In Kenya," International Journal of Food and Agricultural Economics (IJFAEC), Alanya Alaaddin Keykubat University, Department of Economics and Finance, vol. 3(3), pages 1-13, July.

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    Keywords

    WP; price; food; headline inflation;
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