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Inflation Dynamics in Yemen: An Empirical Analysis

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  • Abdullah Almounsor

Abstract

Yemen has had a high and volatile rate of inflation in recent years. This paper studies the underlying determinants of inflation dynamics in Yemen using three different approaches: (i) a single equation model, (ii) a Structural Vector Autoregression Model, and (iii) a Vector Error Correction Model. The outcomes suggest that inflation dynamics in Yemen are driven by international price shocks, exchange rate depreciation, domestic demand shocks, and monetary innovations. The impact of international prices and exchange rate depreciation indicate a significant pass-through of import prices. In the short run, external shocks of international prices and the exchange rate account for most variations in inflation, but domestic shocks to money supply and domestic demand explain larger variations in the medium term.

Suggested Citation

  • Abdullah Almounsor, 2010. "Inflation Dynamics in Yemen: An Empirical Analysis," IMF Working Papers 2010/144, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2010/144
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Miss Nkunde Mwase, 2006. "An Empirical Investigation of the Exchange Rate Pass-Through to Inflation in Tanzania," IMF Working Papers 2006/150, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Jonathan McCarthy, 2007. "Pass-Through of Exchange Rates and Import Prices to Domestic Inflation in Some Industrialized Economies," Eastern Economic Journal, Eastern Economic Association, vol. 33(4), pages 511-537, Fall.
    3. Ms. Nada Choueiri & Mr. Klaus-Stefan Enders & Mr. Yuri V Sobolev & Mr. Jan Walliser & Mr. Sherwyn Williams, 2002. "Yemen in the 1990s: From Unification to Economic Reform," IMF Occasional Papers 2002/007, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Mr. Oral Williams & Mr. Olumuyiwa S Adedeji, 2004. "Inflation Dynamics in the Dominican Republic," IMF Working Papers 2004/029, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Mr. Kenji Moriyama, 2008. "Investigating Inflation Dynamics in Sudan," IMF Working Papers 2008/189, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Mr. Kadima D. Kalonji & Jan Gottschalk & Mr. Ken Miyajima, 2008. "Analyzing Determinants of Inflation When There Are Data Limitation: The Case of Sierra Leone," IMF Working Papers 2008/271, International Monetary Fund.
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    Cited by:

    1. Carlos Barros & Luis Gil-Alana, 2013. "Inflation Forecasting in Angola: A Fractional Approach," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 25(1), pages 91-104.
    2. Shahzad Ahmad & Farooq Pasha, 2015. "A Pragmatic Model for Monetary Policy Analysis I: The Case of Pakistan," SBP Research Bulletin, State Bank of Pakistan, Research Department, vol. 11, pages 1-42.
    3. Amr Hosny, 2013. "Inflation In Egypt: Internal Or External Driven?," Middle East Development Journal (MEDJ), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 5(03), pages 1-15.
    4. Muhammad Nadim Hanif & Muhammad Jahanzeb Malik, 2015. "Evaluating the Performance of Inflation Forecasting Models of Pakistan," SBP Research Bulletin, State Bank of Pakistan, Research Department, vol. 11, pages 43-78.
    5. Ramez Abubakr Badeeb & Hooi Hooi Lean, 2017. "The Determinants of Financial Development in the Republic of Yemen: Evidence from the Principal Components Approach," Capital Markets Review, Malaysian Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 32-48.

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