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Growth Determinants Revisited

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  • Mr. Charalambos G Tsangarides
  • Mr. Alin T Mirestean

Abstract

This paper revisits the cross-country growth empirics debate using a novel Limited Information Bayesian Model Averaging framework to address model uncertainty in the context of a dynamic growth model in panel data with endogenous regressors. Our empirical findings suggest that once model uncertainty is accounted for there is strong evidence that initial income, investment, life expectancy, and population growth are robustly correlated with economic growth. We also find evidence that debt, openness, and inflation are robust growth determinants. Overall, the set of our robust growth determinants differs from those identified by other studies that incorporate model uncertainty, but ignore dynamics and/or endogeneity. This underscores the importance of accounting for model uncertainty and endogeneity in the investigation of growth determinants.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Charalambos G Tsangarides & Mr. Alin T Mirestean, 2009. "Growth Determinants Revisited," IMF Working Papers 2009/268, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2009/268
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    Cited by:

    1. Ms. Olessia Korbut & Mr. Gonzalo Salinas & Cheikh A. Gueye, 2011. "Growth in Africa Under Peace and Market Reforms," IMF Working Papers 2011/040, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Ulaşan, Bülent, 2012. "Cross-country growth empirics and model uncertainty: An overview," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 6, pages 1-69.
    3. Francisco Arizala & Mr. Matthieu Bellon & Ms. Margaux MacDonald, 2019. "Regional Growth Spillovers in Sub-Saharan Africa," IMF Working Papers 2019/160, International Monetary Fund.
    4. D'Andrea, Sara, 2022. "Are there any robust determinants of growth in Europe? A Bayesian Model Averaging approach," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 171(C), pages 143-173.
    5. Grekou, Carl, 2015. "Revisiting the nexus between currency misalignments and growth in the CFA Zone," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 142-154.
    6. Ajit Karnik & Mala Lalvani, 2012. "Growth performance of Indian states," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 42(1), pages 235-259, February.
    7. Gilles Dufrenot & Valerie Mignon & Charalambos Tsangarides, 2010. "The trade-growth nexus in the developing countries: a quantile regression approach," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 146(4), pages 731-761, December.
    8. Carl Grekou, 2015. "Currency misalignments and economic growth: the foreign currency-denominated debt channel," EconomiX Working Papers 2015-23, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    9. Eicher, Theo S. & Helfman, Lindy & Lenkoski, Alex, 2012. "Robust FDI determinants: Bayesian Model Averaging in the presence of selection bias," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 637-651.
    10. Theo S. Eicher & Monique Newiak, 2013. "Intellectual property rights as development determinants," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 46(1), pages 4-22, February.
    11. Enrique Moral‐Benito, 2016. "Growth Empirics in Panel Data Under Model Uncertainty and Weak Exogeneity," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(3), pages 584-602, April.
    12. Jetter, Michael, 2014. "Volatility and growth: Governments are key," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 71-88.
    13. Eriṣ, Mehmet N. & Ulaṣan, Bülent, 2013. "Trade openness and economic growth: Bayesian model averaging estimate of cross-country growth regressions," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 867-883.
    14. Enrique Moral-Benito, 2010. "Model Averaging in Economics," Working Papers wp2010_1008, CEMFI.
    15. Islam, Md. Rabiul & Madsen, Jakob B. & Raschky, Paul A., 2015. "Gold and silver mining in the 16th and 17th centuries, land titles and agricultural productivity," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 150-166.
    16. Mr. Antonio David & Mr. Fabiano Rodrigues Rodrigues Bastos & Marshall Mills, 2011. "Post-Conflict Recovery: Institutions, Aid, or Luck?," IMF Working Papers 2011/149, International Monetary Fund.
    17. Xanthippi Chapsa & Athanasios L. Athanasenas & Nikolaos Tabakis, 2019. "Real Convergence in EU-15: A Comparative Analysis of North versus South Europe," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(3), pages 3-21.
    18. Carl Grekou, 2014. "Revisiting the nexus between currency misalignments and growth in the CFA Zone," Working Papers hal-04141364, HAL.
    19. Michael Jetter, 2013. "Volatility and Growth: An Explanation for the Disagreement," Documentos de Trabajo de Valor Público 10944, Universidad EAFIT.
    20. Mr. Charalambos G Tsangarides, 2012. "Determinants of Growth Spells: Is Africa Different?," IMF Working Papers 2012/227, International Monetary Fund.
    21. E. Tsanana & X. Chapsa & C. Katrakilidis, 2016. "Is growth corrupted or bureaucratic? Panel evidence from the enlarged EU," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(33), pages 3131-3147, July.

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