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Fiscal Cycles in the Caribbean

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  • Ms. Juliana Dutra Araujo

Abstract

The sharp increase in debt in the Caribbean since the mid-1990s has focused attention on the conduct of fiscal policy in the region. This paper aims to diagnose how fiscal policy has behaved during this period by looking at three main cycles of the economy: the business, election, and natural disaster cycles. Our main findings suggest that fiscal policy has been mostly procyclical in the region, while disasters have been heavily "insured" by foreign transfers. The "when it rains, it pours" phenomena suggested by Kaminsky, Reinhart and Vegh (2004) seems to take place in the Caribbean.

Suggested Citation

  • Ms. Juliana Dutra Araujo, 2009. "Fiscal Cycles in the Caribbean," IMF Working Papers 2009/158, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2009/158
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Graciela L. Kaminsky & Carmen M. Reinhart & Carlos A. Végh, 2005. "When It Rains, It Pours: Procyclical Capital Flows and Macroeconomic Policies," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2004, Volume 19, pages 11-82, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff & Miguel A. Savastano, 2003. "Debt Intolerance," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 34(1), pages 1-74.
    3. Kenneth Rogoff & Anne Sibert, 1988. "Elections and Macroeconomic Policy Cycles," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 55(1), pages 1-16.
    4. Enrique Alberola & Manuel Montero, 2006. "Debt Sustainability and Procyclical Fiscal Policies in Latin America," Economía Journal, The Latin American and Caribbean Economic Association - LACEA, vol. 0(Fall 2006), pages 157-193, August.
    5. Ugo Panizza & Dany Jaimovich, 2007. "Procyclicality or Reverse Causality?," Research Department Publications 4508, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
    6. Ugo Panizza & Dany Jaimovich, 2007. "Procyclicality or Reverse Causality?," Research Department Publications 4508, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
    7. Michael Gavin & Roberto Perotti, 1997. "Fiscal Policy in Latin America," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1997, Volume 12, pages 11-72, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. William D. Nordhaus, 1975. "The Political Business Cycle," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 42(2), pages 169-190.
    9. Brender, Adi & Drazen, Allan, 2005. "Political budget cycles in new versus established democracies," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(7), pages 1271-1295, October.
    10. International Monetary Fund, 2005. "Eastern Caribbean Currency Union: Selected Issues," IMF Staff Country Reports 2005/305, International Monetary Fund.
    11. Corbae,Dean & Durlauf,Steven N. & Hansen,Bruce E. (ed.), 2006. "Econometric Theory and Practice," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521807234, November.
    12. Ethan Ilzetzki & Carlos A. Vegh, 2008. "Procyclical Fiscal Policy in Developing Countries: Truth or Fiction?," NBER Working Papers 14191, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Lindbeck, Assar, 1976. "Stabilization Policy in Open Economies with Endogenous Politicians," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 66(2), pages 1-19, May.
    14. Mr. Sebastian Sosa & Mr. Paul Cashin, 2009. "Macroeconomic Fluctuations in the Caribbean: The Role of Climatic and External Shocks," IMF Working Papers 2009/159, International Monetary Fund.
    15. Mr. Paul Cashin, 2004. "Caribbean Business Cycles," IMF Working Papers 2004/136, International Monetary Fund.
    16. Mr. Paul Cashin & Mr. Antonio Lemus, 2012. "The Eastern Caribbean Currency Union: Would a Fiscal Insurance Mechanism Mitigate National Income Shocks?," IMF Working Papers 2012/017, International Monetary Fund.
    17. Mr. Tobias N. Rasmussen, 2004. "Macroeconomic Implications of Natural Disasters in the Caribbean," IMF Working Papers 2004/224, International Monetary Fund.
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    Cited by:

    1. International Monetary Fund, 2009. "Eastern Caribbean Currency Union: Selected Issues," IMF Staff Country Reports 2009/176, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Mr. Paul Cashin & Mr. Antonio Lemus, 2012. "The Eastern Caribbean Currency Union: Would a Fiscal Insurance Mechanism Mitigate National Income Shocks?," IMF Working Papers 2012/017, International Monetary Fund.

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