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Fiscal Policy Rules for Oil-Producing Countries: A Welfare-Based Assessment

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  • Wojciech Maliszewski

Abstract

The paper presents numerical simulations of various fiscal rules for oil-producing countries. Welfare implications are sensitive to the choice of the social welfare function, initial conditions, and non-oil growth prospects. The distribution of non-oil wealth is important for countries with relatively low oil reserves. Corrections for adjustment costs and uncertainty with respect to oil prices should be applied carefully. While avoiding sharp changes in the fiscal policy stance may be appealing, it is not necessarily optimal if the initial position is unsustainable. Ad hoc rules are shown to perform poorly. The analysis abstracts from several issues critical for developing a practical policy advice and should not be treated as a complete framework.

Suggested Citation

  • Wojciech Maliszewski, 2009. "Fiscal Policy Rules for Oil-Producing Countries: A Welfare-Based Assessment," IMF Working Papers 2009/126, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2009/126
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. van der Ploeg, Frederick & Venables, Anthony, 2008. "Harnessing Windfall Revenues in Developing Economies: Sovereign Wealth Funds and Optimal Tradeoffs Between Citizen Dividends, P," CEPR Discussion Papers 6954, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Mr. Rodrigo O. Valdes & Mr. Eduardo E Engel, 2000. "Optimal Fiscal Strategy for Oil Exporting Countries," IMF Working Papers 2000/118, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Stéphane Carcillo & Mr. Mauricio Villafuerte & Mr. Daniel Leigh, 2007. "Catch-Up Growth, Habits, Oil Depletion, and Fiscal Policy: Lessons from the Republic of Congo," IMF Working Papers 2007/080, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Mr. Alonso A Segura Vasi, 2006. "Management of Oil Wealth Under the Permanent Income Hypothesis: The Case of São Tomé and Príncipe," IMF Working Papers 2006/183, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Mr. Jan-Peter Olters, 2007. "Old Curses, New Approaches? Fiscal Benchmarks for Oil-Producing Countries in Sub-Saharan Africa," IMF Working Papers 2007/107, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Mr. Ludvig Söderling & Mrs. Hanan Morsy & Mr. Martin Petri & Mr. Martin Hommes & Ms. Manal Fouad & Wojciech Maliszewski, 2007. "Public Debt and Fiscal Vulnerability in the Middle East," IMF Working Papers 2007/012, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Mr. Jan-Peter Olters & Mr. Daniel Leigh, 2006. "Natural-Resource Depletion, Habit Formation, and Sustainable Fiscal Policy: Lessons from Gabon," IMF Working Papers 2006/193, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Mr. Daniel Leigh & Mr. Etibar Jafarov, 2007. "Alternative Fiscal Rules for Norway," IMF Working Papers 2007/241, International Monetary Fund.
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    Cited by:

    1. Agénor, Pierre-Richard, 2016. "Optimal fiscal management of commodity price shocks," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 122(C), pages 183-196.
    2. Landon, Stuart & Smith, Constance, 2017. "Does the design of a fiscal rule matter for welfare?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 226-237.
    3. Pablo Lopez Murphy & Mr. Mauricio Villafuerte & Mr. Rolando Ossowski, 2010. "Riding the Roller Coaster: Fiscal Policies of Nonrenewable Resource Exporters in Latin America and the Caribbean," IMF Working Papers 2010/251, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Ibrahim Elbadawi & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Raimundo Soto, 2015. "Why Do Countries Have Fiscal Rules?," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Ricardo J. Caballero & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (ed.),Economic Policies in Emerging-Market Economies Festschrift in Honor of Vittorio Corbo, edition 1, volume 21, chapter 9, pages 155-189, Central Bank of Chile.
    5. Mauricio Villafuerte & Pablo López-Murphy & Rolando Ossowski, 2013. "Riding the Roller Coaster: Fiscal Policies of Nonrenewable Resource Exporters in Latin America and the Caribbean," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Luis Felipe Céspedes & Jordi Galí (ed.),Fiscal Policy and Macroeconomic Performance, edition 1, volume 17, chapter 5, pages 117-173, Central Bank of Chile.
    6. Stuart Landon and Constance Smith, 2015. "Rule-Based Resource Revenue Stabilization Funds: A Welfare Comparison," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2).
    7. Rouhollah Shahnazi & Mohsen Renani & Rahim Dalali Esfahani & Rahman Khoshakhlagh & Mohamad Vaez, 2011. "Optimal Fiscal Policy with Oil Revenues," Iranian Economic Review (IER), Faculty of Economics,University of Tehran.Tehran,Iran, vol. 16(2), pages 73-88, spring.
    8. Issouf Samaké & Mr. Nikola Spatafora, 2012. "Commodity Price Shocks and Fiscal Outcomes," IMF Working Papers 2012/112, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Mauricio Villafuerte & Pablo López-Murphy & Rolando Ossowski, 2011. "Riding the Roller Coaster: Fiscal Policies of Nonrenewable Resources Exporters in Latin America and the Caribbean ," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 609, Central Bank of Chile.
    10. Eduardo Engel & Christopher Neilson & Rodrigo Valdés, 2013. "Chile’s Fiscal Rule as Social Insurance," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Luis Felipe Céspedes & Jordi Galí (ed.),Fiscal Policy and Macroeconomic Performance, edition 1, volume 17, chapter 10, pages 393-425, Central Bank of Chile.
    11. Keyra Primus, 2016. "Fiscal Rules for Resource Windfall Allocation: The Case of Trinidad and Tobago," IMF Working Papers 2016/188, International Monetary Fund.
    12. Adedoyin Festus Fatai & Liu Cheol & Adeniyi Oluwatosin A. & Kabir Muhammad, 2017. "Oil rents and fiscal balance in oil dependent economies: do fiscal rules matter?," Asian Journal of Empirical Research, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 7(8), pages 176-201, August.
    13. Sayadi, Mohammad & Khoshkalam Khosroshahi, Musa, 2020. "Assessing Alternative Investment Policies in a Resource-Rich Capital-Scarce Country: Results from a DSGE analysis for Iran," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    14. Iacono, Roberto, 2017. "A comparison of fiscal rules for resource-rich economies," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 179-193.
    15. Deku, Solomon Y. & Lim, King Yoong, 2024. "Oil price effects on optimal extraction–exploration and offshore entities: An applied-theoretical and empirical investigation in oil-rich economies," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).

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