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Management of Oil Wealth Under the Permanent Income Hypothesis: The Case of São Tomé and Príncipe

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  • Mr. Alonso A Segura Vasi

Abstract

This paper documents the protracted process of shaping the rules governing oil operations in São Tomé and Príncipe. It analyzes the institutional framework for oil sector development, which applies Milton Friedman's permanent income hypothesis to the management of oil resources. São Tomé and Príncipe is the first country in Africa to adopt this rule. Finally, the paper offers a preliminary quantitative analysis of the impact of oil sector development on government consumption and savings. It shows that the country's oil wealth could be significant, which would enable sustainable government consumption and intergenerational equity through a gradual buildup of the Permanent Fund for Future Generations.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Alonso A Segura Vasi, 2006. "Management of Oil Wealth Under the Permanent Income Hypothesis: The Case of São Tomé and Príncipe," IMF Working Papers 2006/183, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2006/183
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Klueh, Ulrich H. & Pastor, Gonzalo & Segura, Alonso, 2009. "Policies to improve the local impact from hydrocarbon extraction: Observations on West Africa and possible lessons for Central Asia," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 1128-1144, March.
    2. Mr. Alonso A Segura Vasi & Walter Zarate & Mr. Gonzalo C Pastor Campos & Mr. Ulrich H Klueh, 2007. "Inter-sectoral Linkages and Local Content in Extractive Industries and Beyond – The Case of São Tomé and Príncipe," IMF Working Papers 2007/213, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Mr. Jan-Peter Olters & Mr. Daniel Leigh, 2006. "Natural-Resource Depletion, Habit Formation, and Sustainable Fiscal Policy: Lessons from Gabon," IMF Working Papers 2006/193, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Mr. Alun H. Thomas & Mr. Tamim Bayoumi, 2009. "Today versus Tomorrow - The Sensitivity of the Non-Oil Current Account Balance to Permanent and Current Income," IMF Working Papers 2009/248, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Mr. Jan-Peter Olters, 2007. "Old Curses, New Approaches? Fiscal Benchmarks for Oil-Producing Countries in Sub-Saharan Africa," IMF Working Papers 2007/107, International Monetary Fund.
    6. International Monetary Fund, 2009. "Chad: Selected Issues," IMF Staff Country Reports 2009/067, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Martínez-Sánchez, José F. & Pérez-Lechuga, Gilberto & Venegas-Martínez, Francisco (ed.), 2017. "Modelos para la toma de decisiones en la Ingeniería Económica y Financiera: Un enfoque estocástico Vol 3," Sección de Estudios de Posgrado e Investigación de la Escuela Superios de Economía del Instituto Politécnico Nacional, Escuela Superior de Economía, Instituto Politécnico Nacional, edition 1, volume 3, number 017, January.
    8. Eduardo Engel & Christopher Neilson & Rodrigo Valdés, 2013. "Chile’s Fiscal Rule as Social Insurance," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Luis Felipe Céspedes & Jordi Galí (ed.),Fiscal Policy and Macroeconomic Performance, edition 1, volume 17, chapter 10, pages 393-425, Central Bank of Chile.
    9. Yelena, Kalyuzhnova, 2011. "The National Fund of the Republic of Kazakhstan (NFRK): From accumulation to stress-test to global future," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(10), pages 6650-6657, October.
    10. Stéphane Carcillo & Mr. Mauricio Villafuerte & Mr. Daniel Leigh, 2007. "Catch-Up Growth, Habits, Oil Depletion, and Fiscal Policy: Lessons from the Republic of Congo," IMF Working Papers 2007/080, International Monetary Fund.
    11. Issouf Samaké & Ms. Priscilla S Muthoora & Mr. Bruno Versailles, 2013. "Fiscal Sustainability, Public Investment, and Growth in Natural Resource-Rich, Low-Income Countries: The Case of Cameroon," IMF Working Papers 2013/144, International Monetary Fund.
    12. Mr. Alun H. Thomas & Mr. Jun I Kim & Aqib Aslam, 2008. "Equilibrium Non-Oil Current Account Assessments for Oil Producing Countries," IMF Working Papers 2008/198, International Monetary Fund.
    13. International Monetary Fund, 2008. "Islamic Republic of Iran: Selected Issues," IMF Staff Country Reports 2008/285, International Monetary Fund.
    14. Wojciech Maliszewski, 2009. "Fiscal Policy Rules for Oil-Producing Countries: A Welfare-Based Assessment," IMF Working Papers 2009/126, International Monetary Fund.

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